2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[mitchnick]

Interesting how despite the 1+2 positive anomalies, the actual temperature of 1+2 continues to drop.

[bluewave]

The most east based super El Niño event on record for this time of year.

 

 

[forkyfork]

51 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Interesting how despite the 1+2 positive anomalies, the actual temperature of 1+2 continues to drop.

how can you people not know how el nino works after being on a weather board for over a decade

[OSUmetstud]

I believe the weekly nino 3.4 sst data by the cpc does not apply the scaling factor that's used in the monthly/trimonthly offical nino 3.4 data. The scaling factor for August is 1.16/1.17 per the RONI paper. So the monthly RONI Nino 3.4 data for August should be in the neighborhood of ~2.2C as opposed to ~1.8C. Its at the very least a different data set. 

[BlizzardWx]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Interesting how despite the 1+2 positive anomalies, the actual temperature of 1+2 continues to drop.

That's just climo for that part of the world August-September. It's always cooling this time of year, but just less so than typical this year. 

[GaWx]

 August overall was a notable bust for Nino 3.4 as several models had had a steep anomaly warming of a record breaking ~1C from July to Aug whereas the last 4 weeks have overall been net ~flat meaning a warming from July to August of only ~0.5C. Thus, the progged Nov peaks have recently been dropping on the CFS: 

[Terpeast]

I’ve been thinking given how east based this super nino is so far, how will the marine heat wave off japan influence or interfere with the aleutian/GOA low?

will upstream N Pac ridging further amplify the GOA low, pushing it further east and flooding the conus with mild air and cutting off cold air for everyone. 

Or might it destructively interfere with the aleutian/goa low, weakening it relative to what its strength should be with this nino’s strength - possibly pulling it west.

Maybe both at different points in this winter?