2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Precip this July-Aug has been very similar to the 2017-2025 composite

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Winter Wizard said:

I'm not sure what, if any implications, this will have going forward or exactly what the root cause is but it's pretty clear August 2026 behaved much differently than other Super Nino cases (1982, 1997, 2015) and was essentially a hotter version of 2023. I don't think there was anyone in the industry who predicted anything close to a recor 

 

 

 

 

 

Right away, you could probably attribute it, at least in part, to much higher national drought coverage than we've seen in other Nino cases since 2000.

 

 

The drought is just a natural cyclical feed back response to the excessively rainy years we have had since 2002. Consider the el nino summers of 1991, 1994 and 2002 to see summer heat during a developing el nino. We are now cycling back to that drier era and after this el Nino is over that will only increase.

[LakePaste25]

OLR is solidly El Niño. Deepest convective anomalies are forecasted to be around 150-160W. Will need to keep an eye out for a N Pac low as we get into September. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Will need to keep an eye out for a N Pac low as we get into September. 

History says ~Sept 25-30 is the time when it should start to develop, then all the time that follows.

Correlation is weakest in Sept, then 2nd weakest in July. Actually June-Sept is like -0.15 H5 correlation max in the NPH region.