2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Problem is he has history (strong Nino's) to support his views. You don't have to go out on a limb to forecast  above normal temps this winter. Hopefully we are all wrong.

No one is disputing above normal temps...at least in the NE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Ironically, if the increase in Nino variance extends to CP Ninos (as some CMIP6 models suggest may happen soon), then we may see enhanced CP episodes in addition to EP episodes, which ofc will be far more effective for cold winter patterns here. Add in PV disruption via a shoaling Atlantic water into the Arctic (setting up an increasing amount of ridging) and that may also constructively interfere. 

My crude theory is that the planet ultimately finds a way to achieve some semblance of an equilibrium....and this unprecedented El Nino is a testament to that.

[csnavywx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My crude theory is that the planet ultimately finds a way to achieve some semblance of an equilibrium....and this unprecedented El Nino is a testament to that.

That "snap back" effect may be more pronounced than currently imagined: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02730-w

[michsnowfreak]

13 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Ironically, if the increase in Nino variance extends to CP Ninos (as some CMIP6 models suggest may happen soon), then we may see enhanced CP episodes in addition to EP episodes, which ofc will be far more effective for cold winter patterns here. Add in PV disruption via a shoaling Atlantic water into the Arctic (setting up an increasing amount of ridging) and that may also constructively interfere. 

I will say, all things considered and all the discussion in this thread....I am not as worried about this winter locally as I would a normal strong Nino. Of course, I still expect an overall subpar winter. Just not as subpar as strong Ninos can be. Its going to be fascinating (and likely at times frustrating) to see how the nino does affect overall weather patterns.  

[michsnowfreak]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one is disputing above normal temps...at least in the NE.

Sometimes people confuse the discussion of wintry potential and temp departures as if the two have to go hand in hand. Discussion of above avg temps in the mean has never wavered in this thread, even when pointing out models that disagree (ie Cansips). 

A cool stat out of Marquette, MI. Their snowiest winter on record, 319.8" in 2001-02, was also their 3rd warmest winter on record.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Sometimes people confuse the discussion of wintry potential and temp departures as if the two have to go hand in hand. Discussion of above avg temps in the mean has never wavered in this thread, even when pointing out models that disagree (ie Cansips). 

A cool stat out of Marquette, MI. Their snowiest winter on record, 319.8" in 2001-02, was also their 3rd warmest winter on record.

Well in my area, it really needs to be a bit cooler than average to get big snows, but I'm not suggesting that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

That "snap back" effect may be more pronounced than currently imagined: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02730-w

2060? Damn, I'll be 80....lets speed that up-

[forkyfork]

16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I will say, all things considered and all the discussion in this thread....I am not as worried about this winter locally as I would a normal strong Nino. Of course, I still expect an overall subpar winter. Just not as subpar as strong Ninos can be. Its going to be fascinating (and likely at times frustrating) to see how the nino does affect overall weather patterns.  

you are going to get at least one +10 month and barely any snow

[LakePaste25]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well in my area, it really needs to be a bit cooler than average to get big snows, but I'm not suggesting that.

Here as well, at least on a daily basis. +3 or +4 in the monthly is probably the upper limit here where I can get a week of big lake snows while the rest of the month is a torch. Higher than +4, we’re getting into “the whole month is shot outside of a some minor/medium snowfalls” territory. 

[LakePaste25]

that’s why super ninos all have below normal snow here. Every month is usually greater than +3. No room for week+ long lake snow blitz’s to save the season. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll take the over on "barely any snow" in Michigan this coming winter, but a +10 month would not shock me.

[csnavywx]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2060? Damn, I'll be 80....lets speed that up-

Might be sooner. In a separate interview the author said it may start earlier with the sub-polar gyre and we're already hugging the upper end of the equiv. warming rates in the paper.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Might be sooner. In a separate interview the author said it may start earlier with the sub-polar gyre and we're already hugging the upper end of the equiv. warming rates in the paper.

Oh, pretty please...this would represent an interplanetary orgie for me. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure it will come with some unforeseen, dystopian (as John would say)externality, but we are getting those anyway with the hockey-stick rate of CC, so what the hell...may as well get some snow and cold on the way to meeting our collective maker.

[BlizzardWx]

On 8/16/2026 at 9:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow, that satellitewx.com site is incredible.....

It's been a lot of work setting it up, let me know if there is anything you want added. I'm open to requests and it helps all of us to have better tools.

On 8/16/2026 at 5:35 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

OH I love this product.   heh.  I've been in my internal monologue for years literally saying the density of the frequency has been ..etc..etc.   Weird.  It's actually called phase density.  

Different topic:  I find it interesting that it's been biased on the left side like that, and it happens to predate the ENSO by some.   I'm wondering if the WWB flux/anomaly quotient is constructively interfering there a bit.  In which case, the phasing may actually not reflect as much pure MJO momentum as it does an environmental resonance.   

I've often stated in the past that the MJO isn't a pattern drive.  It's a pattern augmenter.  If the wave is in constructive interference the phase diagram balloons ... depending on the basal hemispheric mode/wave numbers at the time the MJO is attempting to emerge out of the Marine continent. In the much broader perspective, when in phase the dispersion into the mid latitudes is in sync with the Pacific orientation that sends N/A into a NW conveyor.

To get a sense of if the positive(negative) interference scheme, I look at a combination of the Asia circulation mode together with the WPO index (outlook and recent biases). A -WPO phases constructively with 7-8-1-2 MJO ... then transmitted across the wave train of the Pacific sends a +PNA. I would call such a hemisphere harmonically interfering (constructive).  Since the warm ENSO mode significantly correlates with this, that adds. Contrasting, if the MJO is 3-4-5-6, that is a destructive interference (technically a loss of constructive due to geometric placement around the equatorial girdle). But in this latter circumstance ... it is less than clear if the MJO will even factor as the Asia/-WPO can quite obviously at times overwhelm/suppress - it's presence is still there but it's rendered meaningless if the former is dictating policy.  This is how constructive vs destructive interfering manifests on the pattern. 

I've often fantasized about a phase diagram that isn't the scalar wave propagation coherency, but is the Constructive vs Destructive interference. There are times when a robust wave propagation seems not to correlate so well with the N arc of the Pac --> western N/A.  The pattern disconnect times may show some proportionality to C or D.

I'm going to have to think about this to deeply understand but I think I like this idea! If I can figure out a way to automate it I'll add it to the site. 

[Ephesians2]

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well in my area, it really needs to be a bit cooler than average to get big snows, but I'm not suggesting that.

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Here as well, at least on a daily basis. +3 or +4 in the monthly is probably the upper limit here where I can get a week of big lake snows while the rest of the month is a torch. Higher than +4, we’re getting into “the whole month is shot outside of a some minor/medium snowfalls” territory. 

The Marquette example was just sort of a fun stat of what can and does happen in the far north. Certainly not a projection for anyone lol.

For me, being in the Great Lakes region but outside the heavy snow belts, theres no question that "deep winter" needs average to below average temps to maintain a constant snowpack, thick lake ice, etc. Last year is an absolute textbook example. Well above avg snowcover and below avg temps gave us a severe winter despite actual snowfall finishing around 90% of average (was on pace for better but March fell totally flat).

But actual total snowFALL is really dependent on how a season goes. It's a long window from November to April to get snowstorms, so its quite feasible to get average snowfall (40-45") with above to well above avg temps. Pretty much getting over 50", however, tends to require near normal (or below) temps. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the over on "barely any snow" in Michigan this coming winter, but a +10 month would not shock me.

Troll comments arent even worth a response.

If there is a +10F month, I cant see how it's anything other than December. It wouldnt shock me knowing the history of strong Ninos, but it seems a low chance the way everything looks now. 

Regardless of actual departures, Id put money on December being the warmest month relative to avg, not just of the winter, but the entire cold season.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, BlizzardWx said:

It's been a lot of work setting it up, let me know if there is anything you want added. I'm open to requests and it helps all of us to have better tools.

I'm going to have to think about this to deeply understand but I think I like this idea! If I can figure out a way to automate it I'll add it to the site. 

Bookmarked it! Looks great!

Just one question, any idea why the CANSIPS seasonal looks quite different than on tropical tidbits?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

It's been a lot of work setting it up, let me know if there is anything you want added. I'm open to requests and it helps all of us to have better tools.

I'm going to have to think about this to deeply understand but I think I like this idea! If I can figure out a way to automate it I'll add it to the site. 

Oh, that is your site? Awesome job!

My only critique is that it only has mean vp, and not vp anomalies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

The Marquette example was just sort of a fun stat of what can and does happen in the far north. Certainly not a projection for anyone lol.

For me, being in the Great Lakes region but outside the heavy snow belts, theres no question that "deep winter" needs average to below average temps to maintain a constant snowpack, thick lake ice, etc. Last year is an absolute textbook example. Well above avg snowcover and below avg temps gave us a severe winter despite actual snowfall finishing around 90% of average (was on pace for better but March fell totally flat).

But actual total snowFALL is really dependent on how a season goes. It's a long window from November to April to get snowstorms, so its quite feasible to get average snowfall (40-45") with above to well above avg temps. Pretty much getting over 50", however, tends to require near normal (or below) temps. 

Last season featured my first positive seasonal snowfall anomaly since 2017-2018.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Troll comments arent even worth a response.

If there is a +10F month, I cant see how it's anything other than December. It wouldnt shock me knowing the history of strong Ninos, but it seems a low chance the way everything looks now. 

Regardless of actual departures, Id put money on December being the warmest month relative to avg, not just of the winter, but the entire cold season.

January could end up pretty warm if we build huge departures early on.

[michsnowfreak]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

January could end up pretty warm is we build huge departures early on.

Possible. Just hope youre wrong lol. January being the coldest month is still very workable with temps solidly above avg here. But want to avoid the +10 nonsense. 

[LakePaste25]

Preliminarily this is where I’m leaning (locally):

December +7 to +10

January +5 to +8

February -1 to +2

 

I will revise this later on. This is for the lower Great Lakes (Erie, Cleveland, Buffalo, Rochester). Of the 3 months, there’s little chance I’ll revise December. Might even go higher. 

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

January could end up pretty warm is we build huge departures early on.

Big, early departures may result in an ugly monthly + anomaly, but once it flips and gets cold enough for snowfall, who cares!!! February will be knocking on the door.

[michsnowfreak]

45 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Preliminarily this is where I’m leaning (locally):

December +7 to +10

January +5 to +8

February -1 to +2

 

I will revise this later on. This is for the lower Great Lakes (Erie, Cleveland, Buffalo, Rochester). Of the 3 months, there’s little chance I’ll revise December. Might even go higher. 

If December is as mild as early thoughts, im hoping we get a Thanksiving wintry blast. 4 of the 5 past Thanksgiving weekends have been snowy in the Lakes, and the last 2 years there's been snow on the ground when cutting down the Christmas tree black Friday. It really helps to get that early jolt if Decembers gonna suck. 

[Jebman]

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Hope youre right! We are a more nickel and dime snow climate so youd get multiple jebwalks here even in the mildest winters. Make or break is how many big storms can we get, and how big are they.

Might be a little optimistic to think crawling out second story windows in DC, but if the juiced jet meets cold air, should see a good storm down there.

The DC Region has it coming, and has had it coming for a very long time. Juiced up, roided out STJ, meet an abnormally frigid airmass over the DC Region Sub. That's how they could end up with a super deep snow blizzard to rival many of the biggest snowstorms since records began. Might be in February. Models have been hinting at it being colder then normal then. Frigid air plus record nino stj could go full-on George BM blizzard.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Jebman said:

The DC Region has it coming, and has had it coming for a very long time. Juiced up, roided out STJ, meet an abnormally frigid airmass over the DC Region Sub. That's how they could end up with a super deep snow blizzard to rival many of the biggest snowstorms since records began. Might be in February. Models have been hinting at it being colder then normal then. Frigid air plus record nino stj could go full-on George BM blizzard.

As long as it's in the winter. I like my summers hot and dry to keep the mosquitoes away and to get a good view of the Perseids. This is the 40th anniversary of the first time I saw them, 4 nights in August 1986 and that was a whole week of nice clear early Fall kind of weather no haze and temperatures in the low 50s. No mosquitoes either!.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

Problem is he has history (strong Nino's) to support his views. You don't have to go out on a limb to forecast  above normal temps this winter. Hopefully we are all wrong.

Huh?

pretty sure I said “on a personal note”

of course it supports a point of view then, it’s called an op ed for a reason  

Don’t pin “tendency” on me though Like it’s some sort of general tact? I’m on the short list of most objective contributors. During analysis is a different written effort; I don’t play favorites between cold versus hot versus wet versus dry versus storm or no storm 

[MJO812]

11 hours ago, Ephesians2 said:

 

Keep rising

[bluewave]

Really impressive how much stronger the record WWBs were in June and July 2026 than 1997.