2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[soadforecasterx]

14 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Just log into X and follow the 5 guys he always posts.  He was pretty much their X feed on here.  Solved it for you.  

 Problem is i dont have an social media. I am old school and like to stay away from all that stuff unfortunately 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

 Problem is i dont have an social media. I am old school and like to stay away from all that stuff unfortunately 

You mean "fortunately."  Lol

[FPizz]

12 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

 Problem is i dont have an social media. I am old school and like to stay away from all that stuff unfortunately 

If you follow people who you want to read posts from it isnt bad at all.  

[michsnowfreak]

36 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Just log into X and follow the 5 guys he always posts.  He was pretty much their X feed on here.  Solved it for you.  

To be fair, when it gets colder than avg or snowy, posts from anywhere around the world are fair game. Last winter we would see something in French or Spanish tell us the cold wont last. 

[michsnowfreak]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He really does know his stuff and has valuable insights....but I think unfortunately many get distracted from a great deal of the value that he offers by the obvious emotional struggles.

I have no problem seeing opposing viewpoints, biases, etc. Bluewave is a great example. I often disagree with many things he says, but he is never disrespectful. Keep on doing you bluewave. Thats how to run a discussion forum on the internet. But snowman was very rude, mean-spirited, and would hurl insults. He may have a lot of knowledge, but so do many people in here. His posts will not be missed by me. 

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have no problem seeing opposing viewpoints, biases, etc. Bluewave is a great example. I often disagree with many things he says, but he is never disrespectful. Keep on doing you bluewave. Thats how to run a discussion forum on the internet. But snowman was very rude, mean-spirited, and would hurl insults. He may have a lot of knowledge, but so do many people in here. His posts will not be missed by me. 

I hate all sides and do my best to generate vitriol against me and between other posters.

[forkyfork]

57 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have no problem seeing opposing viewpoints, biases, etc. Bluewave is a great example. I often disagree with many things he says, but he is never disrespectful. Keep on doing you bluewave. Thats how to run a discussion forum on the internet. But snowman was very rude, mean-spirited, and would hurl insults. He may have a lot of knowledge, but so do many people in here. His posts will not be missed by me. 

nope. this is science and there is only right or wrong. you are wrong and don't deserve respect or kindness

[rclab]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

nope. this is science and there is only right or wrong. you are wrong and don't deserve respect or kindness

ALL HAIL THE …… well you know …… as always ….

 

[TriPol]

Where are the fooking mods? You guys got a beef with each other? Take it somewhere else. Stop ruining our experience in reading about a once in a lifetime weather event.

[LakePaste25]

Time to dust off the key and open back up to OT? 

anyways, we are getting to about +2.7

WWBs will keep this going up through the end of the month.

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

51 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

nope. this is science and there is only right or wrong. you are wrong and don't deserve respect or kindness

The only one who doesnt deserve respect is you. The biggest troll on the board who adds NOTHING about science, weather, or anything other than trolling. I wasnt referring to myself - I rarely responded to snowman. Everyone else who did got his vitriol, tantrums and insults.

[LakePaste25]

 

[mitchnick]

43 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

There's a TONI and a RONI? No wonder a met degree is 4 years. You need that many just to remember the acronyms. 

[brooklynwx99]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

There's a TONI and a RONI? No wonder a met degree is 4 years. You need that many just to remember the acronyms. 

TONI is just regular ONI (traditional), no idea why he calls it that lmao

[PhiEaglesfan712]

This is how the carry-over el nino scenario would look like. This is actually an AI model that (correctly) predicted this very strong el nino. This shows a carry-over (moderate) el nino in 2027-28, before transitioning to a la nina in 2028-29.

[LakePaste25]

26 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This is how the carry-over el nino scenario would look like. This is actually an AI model that (correctly) predicted this very strong el nino. This shows a carry-over (moderate) el nino in 2027-28, before transitioning to a la nina in 2028-29.

Much of this depends on how much ocean heat is lost from the El Niño convection that’s occurring. In theory we run out of warm water to sustain El Niño in such conditions. It has to come from somewhere. 

[bluewave]

The 500 mb pattern during June and July across the Northern Hemisphere was the opposite of past developing super El Niño events. 

Had more in common with +SOI/ -PDO /La Niña June and July periods. 

Seasonsal forecast models from before the summer started missed this pattern.

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 500 mb pattern during June and July across the Northern Hemisphere was the opposite of past developing super El Niño events. 

Had more in common with +SOI/ -PDO /La Niña June and July periods. 

The seasonal forecast models from before the summer started missed this pattern.

 

 

 

Any chance you can use the same scale on the 500mb maps so as to compare apples to apples?

P.s. not to say there will be a difference 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 500 mb pattern during June and July across the Northern Hemisphere was the opposite of past developing super El Niño events. 

Had more in common with +SOI/ -PDO /La Niña June and July periods. 

Seasonsal forecast models from before the summer started missed this pattern.

 

 

 

Yeah, this Fall/Winter will be interesting to see if NPH trough develops. It hasn't really happened since 15-16. +SOI correlation was a match the last 2 Summers as well. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It looks like the streak of -SOI days has ended

11 Aug 2026	1016.05	1013.30	6.86	-21.05	-22.10
10 Aug 2026	1014.90	1012.95	2.00	-22.57	-22.32

 

I've noticed over the years that when an ENSO variable wanes, other parts of its correlation pick up (more +PNA pattern for the next 13 days).. weird. 

[EasternLI]

Yeah, will be fascinating to see how the north Pacific responds through this event. Given the deep -PDO state of the atmosphere it is encountering. El nino is certainly ramping up. AAM about to take another step up from the upcoming MJO cycling and associated WWB. Getting impressive too with a forecast mean remaining above 3 SD. If we look at the world view. We can see the SH jet has been, and is forecast to continue to be very impressive. Along with El nino conditions really getting comfortable in the tropics now as of late. A little bit of El nino's influence appears to be trickling into the NH now as well. The forecast has that continuing also and increasingly so as we get towards the tail end of the month. So envision a slow take over, if you will. As we go through the fall. That's my guess. Will be interesting to see if that's how it plays out. I think that makes some sense given the underlying resistance in the Pacific. I personally doubt that resistance will ultimately be too much for this event. Not one of this magnitude, this one's a behemoth. But that is a battle worth watching in the north Pacific for sure. Would still love to see a recurving typhoon or 2 as well but there's time for that.

 

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, will be fascinating to see how the north Pacific responds through this event. Given the deep -PDO state of the atmosphere it is encountering. El nino is certainly ramping up. AAM about to take another step up from the upcoming MJO cycling and associated WWB. Getting impressive too with a forecast mean remaining above 3 SD. If we look at the world view. We can see the SH jet has been, and is forecast to continue to be very impressive. Along with El nino conditions really getting comfortable in the tropics now as of late. A little bit of El nino's influence appears to be trickling into the NH now as well. The forecast has that continuing also and increasingly so as we get towards the tail end of the month. So envision a slow take over, if you will. As we go through the fall. That's my guess. Will be interesting to see if that's how it plays out. I think that makes some sense given the underlying resistance in the Pacific. I personally doubt that resistance will ultimately be too much for this event. Not one of this magnitude, this one's a behemoth. But that is a battle worth watching in the north Pacific for sure. Would still love to see a recurving typhoon or 2 as well but there's time for that.

 

From the mby point of view, the last month has been wet in central PA, with lots of T'Storms. Definitely wetter than the past several years and not Niña'ish.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

From the mby point of view, the last month has been wet in central PA, with lots of T'Storms. Definitely wetter than the past several years and not Niña'ish.

July has been super wet since 2017. Wettest month of the year imby. 2026 followed the same pattern. 

[mitchnick]

55 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

July has been super wet since 2017. Wettest month of the year imby. 2026 followed the same pattern. 

It's continued in August. I've had >3" in the past 8 days.

[George001]

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have no problem seeing opposing viewpoints, biases, etc. Bluewave is a great example. I often disagree with many things he says, but he is never disrespectful. Keep on doing you bluewave. Thats how to run a discussion forum on the internet. But snowman was very rude, mean-spirited, and would hurl insults. He may have a lot of knowledge, but so do many people in here. His posts will not be missed by me. 

What I realized is Adam is a bright young man, but he is severely mentally ill. When I realized that and got a handle of my own mental illness, I stopped hating him. I strongly believe Adams DMN (default mode network) is overactive, which is linked to increased rumination, self monitoring and various psychiatric conditions. Thats not good. I have a similar issue myself so I’m not judging him for this. I genuinely hope he gets better. He needs radical cutting edge experimental treatments to rewire his brain and dampen general DMN activity. I suspect he also struggles with lowered connectivity between distant brain areas within the DMN, and struggles to shut it off when switching from rest to active and demanding tasks. 
 

This specific configuration of DMN dysregulation in Adam’s brain leads to undesirable psychiatric symptoms like difficulty with perspective taking and inconsistent self reflection, intrusive self monitoring, poor working memory (since so much of his cognitive bandwidth is consumed by his obsessions), cognitive looping (restricted/repetitive posts about “snow weenies” on his X page), difficulty redirecting attention, and a tendency to drift inward. 
 

Psychiatric interventions for this suboptimal DMN configuration include psychedelic assisted therapy with ayahuasca or psilocybin, meditation, TMS, ketamine assisted therapy, or mindfulness based neurofeedback. Adam’s posts will not be missed by me either, but I hope he says fuck it and pursues radical treatment options to fundamentally rewire his brain rather than just learning to cope with symptoms. Traditional psychiatry likely will not work in this case, this presentation is consistent with more treatment resistant psychiatric conditions. A couple of the interventions for this are illegal, but if traditional psychiatry fails, stepping outside the law and taking matters into your own hands is justified. I’m not just saying this, I am pursuing several of the above interventions to fix my own brain, as my own DMN is overactive which has caused several undesirable psychiatric symptoms that did not respond to traditional meds and talk therapy. I hope Adam realizes the gravity of his situation like I did with mine, and takes the same steps.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

36 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's continued in August. I've had >3" in the past 8 days.

I just don't know that it is an El Nino STJ change to the drier cycle that we are in, yet. August has also been wet. 

[GaWx]

 These amazing maps are so much fun to look at and dream about:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^CFS, CANSIPS, and ECMWF are all showing a Winter -NAO. 

We haven't really had a DJFM -NAO in 14 years. We've had 21 winter months >+1.11 and 0 months <-1.11 in that time. 

Going for it: N. Atlantic SSTA's May-Aug so far are slightly negative. El Nino does generally support a warmer Stratosphere. 

Going against it: Decadal cycle is still near a peak. Descending Solar Cycle (+1-5 years after Solar Max +NAO is favored, and this last Max was a pretty high one). +QBO. 

I think a -AO for the Winter is more probable than -NAO, but it was only 17 years ago that the lowest NAO on record since the 1800s happened during an El Nino. 

I also think that seasonal models are overestimating the effects of -NAO. The Pacific is usually the stronger player, and since 2019 that has been the case at +0.25 correlation vs before. 

[Wannabehippie]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^CFS, CANSIPS, and ECMWF are all showing a Winter -NAO. 

We haven't really had a DJFM -NAO in 14 years. We've had 21 winter months >+1.11 and 0 months <-1.11 in that time. 

Going for it: N. Atlantic SSTA's May-Aug so far are slightly negative. El Nino does generally support a warmer Stratosphere. 

Going against it: Decadal cycle is still near a peak. Descending Solar Cycle (+1-5 years after Solar Max +NAO is favored, and this last Max was a pretty high one). +QBO. 

I think a -AO for the Winter is more probable than -NAO, but it was only 17 years ago that the lowest NAO on record since the 1800s happened during an El Nino. 

I also think that seasonal models are overestimating the effects of -NAO. The Pacific is usually the stronger player, and since 2019 that has been the case at +0.25 correlation vs before. 

With this super El Nino, -AO, possible -NAO, what sort of weather patterns will they lead to in the US?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

With this super El Nino, -AO, possible -NAO, what sort of weather patterns will they lead to in the US?

Lots of snowfall, if the -NAO and -AO can sustain.