2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[ensonerd1233e343]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In the seasonal mean? Plenty of evidence......Like 4 neg NAO seasons past 30 years, descending solar and +QBO.

Yea but not super + and 82 -83/ 15-16 featured those patterns and dc got a good event out of both of those

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

Yea but not super + and 82 -83/ 15-16 featured those patterns and dc got a good event out of both of those

Yea, I agree with that. I have been touting a lot more variability throughout the second half....but -NAO in the seasonal mean is a very tall task.

[LakePaste25]

I know NMME has an amplitude bias with ENSO but still…even if it were a half a degree cooler, that is still crazy. 

 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, because the ridge was out west....his point is that the ridges are always more intense than expected.

The point I was making was that last year proved that it can be colder than what models progged. I don't give a rat's arse why. It really can be colder than what seasonal models show. Of course, it can be warmer too. But if the warmer than normal isn't in your back yard, do you care? I sure don't. 

All that said, I  think most of us are here for the snow. 12/2015 was at least 10 degrees AN at BWI (my old stomping grounds), yet I had 29" in 1 storm the next month, the record snowfall at BWI. Did I care about December?  I think you know the answer. The only concern over temps I have is that it can limit snowfall. But with the right pattern, AN temps in January and February can overcome them. And I  know you're looking toward the January-March period as I am instead of met winter.

[ensonerd1233e343]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The point I was making was that last year proved that it can be colder than what models progged. I don't give a rat's arse why. It really can be colder than what seasonal models show. Of course, it can be warmer too. But if the warmer than normal isn't in your back yard, do you care? I sure don't. 

All that said, I  think most of us are here for the snow. 12/2015 was at least 10 degrees AN at BWI (my old stomping grounds), yet I had 29" in 1 storm the next month, the record snowfall at BWI. Did I care about December?  I think you know the answer. The only concern over temps I have is that it can limit snowfall. But with the right pattern, AN temps in January and February can overcome them. And I  know you're looking toward the January-March period as I am instead of met winter.

Arse?

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The point I was making was that last year proved that it can be colder than what models progged. I don't give a rat's arse why. It really can be colder than what seasonal models show. Of course, it can be warmer too. But if the warmer than normal isn't in your back yard, do you care? I sure don't. 

All that said, I  think most of us are here for the snow. 12/2015 was at least 10 degrees AN at BWI (my old stomping grounds), yet I had 29" in 1 storm the next month, the record snowfall at BWI. Did I care about December?  I think you know the answer. The only concern over temps I have is that it can limit snowfall. But with the right pattern, AN temps in January and February can overcome them. And I  know you're looking toward the January-March period as I am instead of met winter.

Yes, right under the trough...but that was essentially the only area on the globe where that happened, which is why it's so exceedingly rare at any given locale during modern times. That said, our area is due for a run of colder seasons relative to the west.