2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

10 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

We are finally seeing an appreciable cold pool form so we may be at the peak of WWB events in the next month, doesn't mean the WWBs can not continue but the severity of them should start to wane soon. At this rate I am also not so sure we go right into a La Nina and a deep one at that, of course time will tell.

I would expect lingering Nino 1+2 warmth well into next spring and summer. If I remember correctly, when 1+2 fails to cool down like that we usually get a weaker Nina rebound or just stay cold neutral. Would have to look more into the data. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

I think the warmth will unfortunately be overwhelming for people near I95. You don't get a nino this strong without at least a 10+F month, and most likely all the storms will lack adequate blocking because the NAO will be very positive as well.

Not sure I agree with that for the latter half of the season.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, MarcmmKU said:

I think the warmth will unfortunately be overwhelming for people near I95. You don't get a nino this strong without at least a 10+F month, and most likely all the storms will lack adequate blocking because the NAO will be very positive as well.

Thats a bold statement this far out.  I have no clue why people do this every year.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

I would expect lingering Nino 1+2 warmth well into next spring and summer. If I remember correctly, when 1+2 fails to cool down like that we usually get a weaker Nina rebound or just stay cold neutral. Would have to look more into the data. 

The closest examples I could find since the 50's (unless my eyes are deceiving me).

1983/84 region 1+2 stayed warm through at least early winter but was a La Nina at about -1ish status.

1986-1988 timeframe we had the double Nino event but they were about moderate to strong status before we cooled down.

1991-92 went to neutral and had a bit of a lagged 1+2, went cool neutral the following winter (92-93) and then 93-94 had a warm neutral.

1997-98 went pretty well into Nina mode but was west while Nino 1+2 remained neutral before tumbling at the end 98-99 winter.

2015-16 cooled through most regions while 1+2 warmed as we went into winter of 17/18 other areas being cool neutral.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

Some correlation to a weaker Nina state but not necessarily the only outcome. It really I think depends just how the Nino state breaks down what will determine the following year. Would be interesting to look at the wind patterns for the transitions of each of these years.

Edit: Again all this assuming the 1+2 does not exactly cool down which is something we will have to watch as we head into fall.

[annunciated]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Arctic ice area has been doing relatively well!

 This has quite possibly been helped by the coldest late May-early Aug on record per DMI 80+ N Arctic mean temp since records started in 1958:

I was pretty astonished in July that it was hovering at the freezing line and are indeed astonished now it remained that way through peak summer heating at the poles.

[bluewave]

+10 months have been fairly common during super El Niño events since 1997-1998. Areas adjacent to the +10s also had very high temperature departures. Regions with the most overlapping high departures across multiple months finished the warmest for DJF.

But since all seasonal models default to general climatology due to long range forecast uncertainty, none of the months were forecast ahead of time to my knowledge.

The most common locations have been from the Upper Plains and Midwest across to the East. 

December 2015 was the most extreme for the aerial coverage and magnitude of the 10+ area. As early as November 22, 2015, the EPS weeklies were showing just moderately above average temperatures across the Northern Tier for December. So the long range models gave no indication of what occurred. 

 

+10 months since 1997-1998

Dec 1997 Upper Plains to Upper Midwest

Jan 1998 Upper Plains to East

Feb 1998 Upper Plains to East

Dec 2015 Much of East

Feb 2016 Upper Plains

Mar 2016 Upper Midwest

Dec 2023 Upper Midwest

Feb 2024 Upper Midwest

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

+10 months have been fairly common during super El Niño events since 1997-1998. Areas adjacent to the +10s also had very high temperature departures. Regions with the most overlapping high departures across multiple months finished the warmest for DJF.

But since all seasonal models default to general climatology due to long range forecast uncertainty, none of the months were forecast ahead of time to my knowledge.

The most common locations have been from the Upper Plains and Midwest across to the East. 

December 2015 was the most extreme for the aerial coverage and magnitude of the 10+ area. As early as November 22, 2015, the EPS weeklies were showing just moderately above average temperatures across the Northern Tier for December. So the long range models gave no indication of what occurred. 

 

+10 months since 1997-1998

Dec 1997 Upper Plains to Upper Midwest

Jan 1998 Upper Plains to East

Feb 1998 Upper Plains to East

Dec 2015 Much of East

Feb 2016 Upper Plains

Mar 2016 Upper Midwest

Dec 2023 Upper Midwest

Feb 2024 Upper Midwest

 

 

 

I could totally see double digit + departures in December.

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Arctic ice area has been doing relatively well!

 This has quite possibly been helped by the coldest late May-early Aug on record per DMI 80+ N Arctic mean temp since records started in 1958:

the cold has been concentrated near the pole while the mid latitudes have been on fire

 

[jaxjagman]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

+10 months have been fairly common during super El Niño events since 1997-1998. Areas adjacent to the +10s also had very high temperature departures. Regions with the most overlapping high departures across multiple months finished the warmest for DJF.

But since all seasonal models default to general climatology due to long range forecast uncertainty, none of the months were forecast ahead of time to my knowledge.

The most common locations have been from the Upper Plains and Midwest across to the East. 

December 2015 was the most extreme for the aerial coverage and magnitude of the 10+ area. As early as November 22, 2015, the EPS weeklies were showing just moderately above average temperatures across the Northern Tier for December. So the long range models gave no indication of what occurred. 

 

+10 months since 1997-1998

Dec 1997 Upper Plains to Upper Midwest

Jan 1998 Upper Plains to East

Feb 1998 Upper Plains to East

Dec 2015 Much of East

Feb 2016 Upper Plains

Mar 2016 Upper Midwest

Dec 2023 Upper Midwest

Feb 2024 Upper Midwest

 

 

 

This dont ATM seem to look anything like 2015-2016  Strong NINO.

The strong Nino during this time started early in 2014,during 2015 the Walker Circulationn got funky and just as much the Hadley.You saw much stronger trade winds blowing off  South America.Compared to 82-97,those NINOs were Central and East Based,2015 was central and west based

[Keith Central PA]

3 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

I think the warmth will unfortunately be overwhelming for people near I95. You don't get a nino this strong without at least a 10+F month, and most likely all the storms will lack adequate blocking because the NAO will be very positive as well.

I wouldn't say all,most of them. Feb 83 and Jan 16 showed you in a strong nino you can get blizzards..also nothing too, like 73 and 98.

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

+10 months have been fairly common during super El Niño events since 1997-1998. Areas adjacent to the +10s also had very high temperature departures. Regions with the most overlapping high departures across multiple months finished the warmest for DJF.

But since all seasonal models default to general climatology due to long range forecast uncertainty, none of the months were forecast ahead of time to my knowledge.

The most common locations have been from the Upper Plains and Midwest across to the East. 

December 2015 was the most extreme for the aerial coverage and magnitude of the 10+ area. As early as November 22, 2015, the EPS weeklies were showing just moderately above average temperatures across the Northern Tier for December. So the long range models gave no indication of what occurred. 

 

+10 months since 1997-1998

Dec 1997 Upper Plains to Upper Midwest

Jan 1998 Upper Plains to East

Feb 1998 Upper Plains to East

Dec 2015 Much of East

Feb 2016 Upper Plains

Mar 2016 Upper Midwest

Dec 2023 Upper Midwest

Feb 2024 Upper Midwest

 

 

 

The only time was December 15 with outrageous warmth...Yes it will be warmer than normal this year , but +10?

 

[mitchnick]

Updated NMME hasn't caved on the generally cooler look with this month's run vs last like the Euro. Top 2 pics are DJF temps from last month and today. Bottom 2 are JFM same comparison. 

P.s. Note I said "generally." Some spots up to the NE not. Also, wet along the east coast and inland some.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=apcpna_multimonth_nmme&runtime=2026080800&fh=6

[Keith Central PA]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Updated NMME hasn't caved on the generally cooler look with this month's run vs last like the Euro. Top 2 pics are DJF temps from last month and today. Bottom 2 are JFM same comparison. 

P.s. Note I said "generally." Some spots up to the NE not. Also, wet along the east coast and inland some.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=apcpna_multimonth_nmme&runtime=2026080800&fh=6

I think with an el nino off the charts that would surprise everybody

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

I think with an el nino off the charts that would surprise everybody

The fact that seasonal modeling continues to cool over the last 3 runs gives winter weenies hope.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

I think with an el nino off the charts that would surprise everybody

Maybe the El nino will start cooling off by winter.

[mitchnick]

22 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

I think with an el nino off the charts that would surprise everybody

I should have mentioned as well, this hasn't been a textbook pre-Nino summer so far, though it appears to be heading that way now. Why should we expect a textbook Nino response this winter? Idk, just a thought. Plenty we don't know.

[MarcmmKU]

31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The fact that seasonal modeling continues to cool over the last 3 runs gives winter weenies hope.

As bluewave said none of the modelling will pick up on a 10 F + month until it's very very close to occuring. I'm expecting a torch month (almost certainly december), with january and february above normal by 5-6 F rather than 10. 

[annunciated]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

The fact that seasonal modeling continues to cool over the last 3 runs gives winter weenies hope.

Perhaps for us southerners and those in the Mid-Atlantic region, but we definitely need those cold shots from the polar jet to cooperate.

[LakePaste25]

Latest NMME mean

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, MarcmmKU said:

As bluewave said none of the modelling will pick up on a 10 F + month until it's very very close to occuring. I'm expecting a torch month (almost certainly december), with january and february above normal by 5-6 F rather than 10. 

Since it hasn't happened and last winter in the east/NE ended up colder than progged, nothing's in the bag.

[EasternLI]

Man this El Nino is getting really impressive already. VP 200 charts are in beast mode. These are 30 day means! Obs! Just blows 2023 out of the water. Starting to look more impressive vs 2015 even TBH. At least as far as compared to this same time period. Action centers even looking like pure textbook Nino too. Which is pretty cool to see on a chart. This thing is a powerhouse, no question. MC is even shut down.

 

 

[EasternLI]

I mean, the MJO is currently crossing the MC. Yet, suppression is remaining firmly in place through that. It's not everyday that happens. It's still slated to interact with the Nino right after mid month. Another big WWB is likely inbound.

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Since it hasn't happened and last winter in the east/NE ended up colder than progged, nothing's in the bag.

Its funny how people know what the weather will be like months from now. That poster also seems too confident. 

What we do know is that the STJ will be strong. 

[LakePaste25]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its funny how people know what the weather will be like months from now. That poster also seems too confident. 

What we do know is that the STJ will be strong. 

agreed. We can only predict the aspects of El Niño that I like (such as the strong STJ), not the things I don’t like (the warmth). The warmth we will just have to wait and see. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Since it hasn't happened and last winter in the east/NE ended up colder than progged, nothing's in the bag.

Yes, because the ridge was out west....his point is that the ridges are always more intense than expected.

[ensonerd1233e343]

9 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

I think the warmth will unfortunately be overwhelming for people near I95. You don't get a nino this strong without at least a 10+F month, and most likely all the storms will lack adequate blocking because the NAO will be very positive as well.

ZERO evidence the nao will be + by the way

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

ZERO evidence the nao will be + by the way

In the seasonal mean? Plenty of evidence......Like 4 neg NAO seasons past 30 years, descending solar and +QBO. I'm not speaking in absolutes here, but it's pretty easy to make a case for that.

[ensonerd1233e343]

2 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

ZERO evidence the nao will be + by the way

Ok not zero esp early winter but certainly not very positive 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Updated NMME hasn't caved on the generally cooler look with this month's run vs last like the Euro. Top 2 pics are DJF temps from last month and today. Bottom 2 are JFM same comparison. 

P.s. Note I said "generally." Some spots up to the NE not. Also, wet along the east coast and inland some.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=apcpna_multimonth_nmme&runtime=2026080800&fh=6

Yea, it's a touch warmer up here, but NBD. Generally speaking, you are correct. Interesting trend.