2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

10 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

We are finally seeing an appreciable cold pool form so we may be at the peak of WWB events in the next month, doesn't mean the WWBs can not continue but the severity of them should start to wane soon. At this rate I am also not so sure we go right into a La Nina and a deep one at that, of course time will tell.

I would expect lingering Nino 1+2 warmth well into next spring and summer. If I remember correctly, when 1+2 fails to cool down like that we usually get a weaker Nina rebound or just stay cold neutral. Would have to look more into the data. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

I think the warmth will unfortunately be overwhelming for people near I95. You don't get a nino this strong without at least a 10+F month, and most likely all the storms will lack adequate blocking because the NAO will be very positive as well.

Not sure I agree with that for the latter half of the season.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, MarcmmKU said:

I think the warmth will unfortunately be overwhelming for people near I95. You don't get a nino this strong without at least a 10+F month, and most likely all the storms will lack adequate blocking because the NAO will be very positive as well.

Thats a bold statement this far out.  I have no clue why people do this every year.

[so_whats_happening]

47 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I would expect lingering Nino 1+2 warmth well into next spring and summer. If I remember correctly, when 1+2 fails to cool down like that we usually get a weaker Nina rebound or just stay cold neutral. Would have to look more into the data. 

The closest examples I could find since the 50's (unless my eyes are deceiving me).

1983/84 region 1+2 stayed warm through at least early winter but was a La Nina at about -1ish status.

1986-1988 timeframe we had the double Nino event but they were about moderate to strong status before we cooled down.

1991-92 went to neutral and had a bit of a lagged 1+2, went cool neutral the following winter (92-93) and then 93-94 had a warm neutral.

1997-98 went pretty well into Nina mode but was west while Nino 1+2 remained neutral before tumbling at the end 98-99 winter.

2015-16 cooled through most regions while 1+2 warmed as we went into winter of 17/18 other areas being cool neutral.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

Some correlation to a weaker Nina state but not necessarily the only outcome. It really I think depends just how the Nino state breaks down what will determine the following year. Would be interesting to look at the wind patterns for the transitions of each of these years.