Winter Storm Threat *Technical* Discussion. No Op Run PBP or Snow maps

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Its primarily a miller A solution IMO. Looking at the H5 map of vorticity (which approximates upper air diffluence and consequently lift in the lower levels) we can see that the main energy of the system on the GFS is over the Gulf

 

Looking at the surface pressure map around 12 hours later we can see that there is a nudge of pressure going up the Ohio valley (due to the H5 amplifying the surface across the East coast) which does indicate a bit of a miller B/C depiction.

However, the real meat of the storm is in Georgia after tracking across the Gulf states. This is really just a miller A but without enough blocking in place to prevent the H5 diffluence from promoting some surface cyclogenesis in the Ohio valley. In order to prevent this storm from cutting we just need the NS to promote enough confluence to prevent the 925/850 low from going up the valley like what happened on Jan 25th. Generally we want either more confluence or the wave to eject from the SW earlier while we still have that cold air push. 

Yes and much different than 6z when the primary went to Cleveland and the secondary formed over NJ.

[stormtracker]

This thread does kinda dilute the brand.  I need CAPE to balance the irrational and unbalanced.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, CAPE said:

Yes and much different than 6z when the primary went to Cleveland and the secondary formed over NJ.

Honestly with 12z I'm not even sure if you could call the bit of low pressure in the Ohio valley a primary. From how I'm seeing the setup it appears to be an extension of the main low pressure system across the southeast states. 

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z GFS pretty much does it. A significant and sharp shortwave, coastal low, facilitated by the Central Canada/Hudson ridge and well timed 50-50 with surface HP where we need it. Just like the old days where this setup could snow in the MA.

 

53 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 

 

12z gfs just showed us the win scenario we all need, including the lowlands. 

First, we need a lead shortwave (over MN/IA at 132 hr) to reinforce cold air just before the main wave (over AZ/NM) arrives. 

And the main wave is strong enough to maintain a miller A with sufficient gulf feed:

We don’t want them to phase too early else it will cut, and we also don’t want zero interaction between the two streams either.

 

•  

Is it possible that for once “what could go right” happens instead of…what we’re used to 

[CAPE]

 

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Honestly with 12z I'm not even sure if you could call the bit of low pressure in the Ohio valley a primary. From how I'm seeing the setup it appears to be an extension of the main low pressure system across the southeast states. 

[Terpeast]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Is it possible that for once “what could go right” happens instead of…what we’re used to 

Yes, for once, please. 

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This thread does kinda dilute the brand.  I need CAPE to balance the irrational and unbalanced.

Once I have had a couple bourbons I might pop in. I mainly just wanted a thread to escape all that shit. Takes the fun out of it weeding through all the meltdowns and entire pages of day 10 snow maps posted multiple times.

[Terpeast]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This thread does kinda dilute the brand.  I need CAPE to balance the irrational and unbalanced.

Honestly. The idea is good at first, but it gets a bit annoying checking and posting in both threads. Idk what the answer is. 

[CAPE]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Yes, for once, please. 

If its still possible, this winter would be the one to make it happen. Cold has overwhelmed for 2 weeks and its been bone dry, so just maybe we can get something to work with some actual mositure and modest cold?

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Honestly. The idea is good at first, but it gets a bit annoying checking and posting in both threads. Idk what the answer is. 

Make me a mod for that thread only and I'll take care of it.

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Make me a mod for that thread only and I'll take care of it.

Hmmm

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hmmm

There would be so many people 5 posted it would just be 7 people in there, lol

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

There would be so many people 5 posted it would just be 7 people in there, lol

Nah. All whingy posts would be hidden, and the snow maps...

[Climate175]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nah. All whingy posts would be hidden, and the snow maps...

I believe this was a smart idea. As we can see with the response to the 12z Euro, we need a place to read analysis without the volatile reactions LOL.

[Paleocene]

Cross posting one of the few things I feel qualified to write about. MSLP positions. 12z EPS; you can see how the mean is well SE of where the operational euro was. At hour 186, the operational was where the 1008mb contour crosses the Chesapeake.

 

 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Cross posting one of the few things I feel qualified to write about. MSLP positions. 12z EPS; you can see how the mean is well SE of where the operational euro was. At hour 186, the operational was where the 1008mb contour crosses the Chesapeake.

 

 

Long way to go. Quite a spread as expected. Could easily see a track just off the coast.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

10 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Cross posting one of the few things I feel qualified to write about. MSLP positions. 12z EPS; you can see how the mean is well SE of where the operational euro was. At hour 186, the operational was where the 1008mb contour crosses the Chesapeake.

 

 

That’s a pretty good mean location for a low for our primo snow climo.  

[Paleocene]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Long way to go. Quite a spread as expected. Could easily see a track just off the coast.

Yes, and the EPS has really just clued in on this solution over the last few runs. More changes expected lol

[Terpeast]

Seeing the EPS mean is reassuring. The op runs can be expected to windshield wiper around the ensemble means, as they trend closer to the final solution, which we will have a better idea by Wednesday 

Upon closer inspection, EPS (and AI EPS) has reversed its weakening trend and re-strengthens the s/w on approach. Hudson bay high and confluence also stronger, better cold air mass.

New run:

Old run:

[WEATHER53]

On 2/7/2026 at 10:42 AM, CAPE said:

Lets discuss upcoming potential storm threats. No pissing and moaning, emotional pendulums, and no snow maps until guidance converges on a clear, specific storm threat within 7 days. 

Hopefully mods won't mind moving noncompliant posts to the appropriate threads.

@psuhoffman @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx @brooklynwx99

It has been so much fun in last two weeks to post  actual, real weather events, outcomes, obs and discussions .  It’s really what got these weather boards underway back in the  day. 240-360 hour explosions over models is boring and generally futile and discouraging. But it was mostly the only thing going for years.  This year we had winter weather!!