Is we back? February discussion thread

[ineedsnow]

Just now, bch2014 said:

I live at about 40’ ASL, but we’re expecting snow levels to drop to 2500-3000ft by Wednesday.

The December/early January storms were too warm to bring snow to the Santa Ynez, so looking forward to being able to see the snow capped peaks from the beach for the first time since I moved here.

get your ass up into one of those mountains 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Ideally would we want a slightly different ridge placement and a bit higher heights out ahead?

the ridge spikes right over ID/MT as the trough amps, which is what matters

[cut]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

get your ass up into one of those mountains 

Tahoe area is amazing. Only been out there once but Heavenly is amazing. We had 2 to 3 feet on the first day of our ski trip and 5 days later serious spring skiing with temps in mid 40s after starting trip with highs at about 10 in the town and below zero at 10k

[bch2014]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

get your ass up into one of those mountains 

Will likely be at Baldy this coming weekend and then will be at Palisades 2/27-3/2!

 

[Chrisrotary12]

12z GFS is basically January 2022 re-incarnated. 

[ORH_wxman]

EPS for each threat…

 

Wednesday

 

Friday night

 

Sunday night/Monday

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The ICON is the reason young weather nerds aren't having real sex anymore.

Still looks like the ICON is started by hand even today.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

12z GFS is basically January 2022 re-incarnated. 

Gawd awful.

[WeatherGeek2025]

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Still looks like the ICON is started by hand even today.

[brooklynwx99]

really nice configuration on the AIFS-EPS synoptically... Pacific trough is spiking a ridge over MT, decaying block over SE Canada with confluence, and vort amping underneath the block. one of the better setups we've had recently

[vortex95]

Complex the next week.  We have the light snow NNE overnight, then the sheared narrow band of mdt SN Wed, and then what?  GFS wants to do a pseudo-repeat of Wed on Fri, and then makes a weenie coastal.  And the ECMWF puts all its eggs in the 3rd system Fri, and a big nothing-burger for the "CoastalWx wanna-be storm!"   The GDPS/UKMET/ICON for the Sun-Mon coastal are in-between the GFS and ECMWF scenarios in various forms.

So lots going on, and a rather "crowded" pattern for snow events.  UA pattern fast W-E zonal first, and then amps up this weekend.

Also, you can clearly see the later Feb transition to a more blocky upper-air pattern this week, w/ the main jet across the cntrl and srn CONUS and "loose" and "confused" flow along the Canadian border.  So that further complicates things!
 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Complex the next week.  We have the light snow NNE overnight, then the sheared narrow band of mdt SN Wed, and then what?  GFS wants to do a pseudo-repeat of Wed on Fri, and then makes a weenie coastal.  And the ECMWF puts all its eggs in the 3rd system Fri, and a big nothing-burger for the "CoastalWx wanna-be storm!"   The GDPS/UKMET/ICON for the Sun-Mon coastal are in-between the GFS and ECMWF scenarios in various forms.

So lots going on, and a rather "crowded" pattern for snow events.  UA pattern fast W-E zonal first, and then amps up this weekend.

Also, you can clearly see the later Feb transition to a more blocky upper-air pattern this week, w/ the main jet across the cntrl and srn CONUS and "loose" and "confused" flow along the Canadian border.  So that further complicates things!
 

There is an interesting relative max in the PNA that takes place 23-26th; it's nested in the midst of an ongoing submerged PNA.  It's like a sub-surface sea mount with a buoy blinker to warn passing ships. Ha 

There's some other everyday reasons to suspect less coastal crawling big dawg solutions are favored, but that bold aspect about the zonal/W-E is big correction lean that's a pretty big one.  Pig solutions at this D7-10 range also tend to lose amplitude as they are relayed inward in time. That's more than less an ongoing operational weather forecasting application aspect.   But combining that with the former ... I tell you what, it would be fun ironic if this one fought off all those reason and worked out for the better.

There is still the relative PNA spike.

 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

what exactly am i looking at here?

[vortex95]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

what exactly am i looking at here?

I thought the same thing.  First, who said this?  Second, context?  Third, is it a facetious post?

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

what exactly am i looking at here?

AI slop

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

what exactly am i looking at here?

icon 12z

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

I thought the same thing.  First, who said this?  Second, context?  Third, is it a facetious post?

I mean he did and the context is 171HR frame of the Icon. I'm just wondering what the hell that came from, im guessing it was fed into AI and it spit back out something that looks cooler based on the prompt

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

I mean he did and the context is 171HR frame of the Icon. I'm just wondering what the hell that came from, im guessing it was fed into AI and it spit back out something that looks cooler based on the prompt

bingo. AI also screwed up the date. The run shows as 12z Feb 16 2126, so 100 years from now

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

bingo. AI also screwed up the date. The run shows as 12z Feb 16 2126, so 100 years from now

Fire up a thread ...

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

bingo. AI also screwed up the date. The run shows as 12z Feb 16 2126, so 100 years from now

Only 146,096 runs to go

[Typhoon Tip]

Has there ever been a winter, end to end, with   0    coastals? 

I think we had a couple rainy coastals, tho unremarkable, last autumn.  But since November say.   zippo

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

bingo. AI also screwed up the date. The run shows as 12z Feb 16 2126, so 100 years from now

School cancelations already on the TV scroll...

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Has there ever been a winter, end to end, with   0    coastals? 

I think we had a couple rainy coastals, tho unremarkable, last autumn.  But since November say.   zippo

Perhaps in the 70's or 80's...I have a vague memory of Boston setting a record for most days with snow but it didn't amount to all that much  snowfall...

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Only 146,096 runs to go

leave it to you to calculate that.

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Has there ever been a winter, end to end, with   0    coastals? 

I think we had a couple rainy coastals tho unremarkable last autumn.  But since November say.   zippo

depends how you define a coastal. Dec 2nd was a pretty strong low over just inside the BM, rain for most but N & NW MA got warning snowfall Then you have a couple weaker ones like Dec 14th and Jan 18-19th systems. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

okay guys the prompt was make this model run look more futuristic i didn't ask for the actual date change. Carry on!

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Perhaps in the 70's or 80's...I have a vague memory of Boston setting a record for most days with snow but it didn't amount to all that much  snowfall...

well... snow or not, there's been no report at all this year,  that I can recall anyway

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

leave it to you to calculate that.

depends how you define a coastal. Dec 2nd was a pretty strong low over just inside the BM, rain for most but N & NW MA got warning snowfall Then you have a couple weaker ones like Dec 14th and Jan 18-19th systems. 

well, those should count.  coastal's a coastal

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

okay guys the prompt was make this model run look more futuristic i didn't ask for the actual date change. Carry on!

If it was 2126 it would be all rain