Is we back? February discussion thread

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’d love one more bigger system…then it could end by the second week of March, and that would be perfect for me.  I don’t need the second half of March being cold…it’s been a fabulous winter, as some of us figured it would be very early on…despite the ratter and dud and mediocre calls from knowledgeable folks. 

Next week looks big 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Next week looks big 

Get it all in before 3/8

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like this time it’s different. We have not seen this look. The other times we were close to the fence. 

But you said warmth and done when we were close to the fence….so not much credence in your call this time…but for the record, I hope you’re right this time by mid March.  In the meantime, a few things to watch. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But you said warmth and done when we were close to the fence….so not much credence in your call this time…but for the record, I hope you’re right this time by mid March.  In the meantime, a few things to watch. 

Yeah it was near to AN dude. I never said torch. And the whole country furnaced. So I can’t always nail something where a few hundred miles makes a difference , two weeks out. I feel good about this pattern flip coming up. 

[dendrite]

Emotional trauma aside…I agree with Scoot.

There’s strong ens/AI support for a big warmup toward d10 and beyond. But I still need to see it inside d5 without it breaking down.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Get it all in before 3/8

I think you said something similar a couple weeks ago .   But I hope this time you’re right. But Wouldn’t shock me if this call fails too.  

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Emotional trauma aside…I agree with Scoot.

There’s strong ens/AI support for a big warmup toward d10 and beyond. But I still need to see it inside d5 without it breaking down.

I’m good with that for sure.  

[dendrite]

Let’s melt it all in a few days and get a cutter on top of it.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it was AN dude. I never said torch. And the whole country furnaced. So I can’t always nail something where a few hundred miles makes a difference , two weeks out. I feel good about this pattern flip coming up. 

That’s the point….a few hundred miles always makes a difference in SNE…with almost everything.  I hope this time you’re correct…let’s warm it up in a couple weeks. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s the point….a few hundred miles always makes a difference in SNE…with almost everything.  I hope this time you’re correct…let’s warm it up in a couple weeks. 

It was AN in NNE too. I can’t get down to county level lol. 
 

 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it was AN dude. I never said torch. And the whole country furnaced. So I can’t always nail something where a few hundred miles makes a difference , two weeks out. I feel good about this pattern flip coming up. 

Wasn’t saying every single day was BN…but it’s been predominantly BN for the winter to date as a whole. Regardless of what happens the next two weeks(more snow or not), it’s been quite the winter season for all, regardless of if it warms up or not after 3/9. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was AN in NNE too. I can’t get down to county level lol. 
 

 

The original post and point remains…your call for back broken a couple weeks back was incorrect.  That’s all. It’s ok to admit a mistake. 

[Heisy]

But that’s for next week…?

There’s a 3-4 week lag effect generally

[MJO812]

[EastonSN+]

Hopefully we can squeeze in one more historic blizzard before the pattern flips.

Unfortunately looks like we hit phase 8 by mid to late March just in time to ruin spring.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I’m down for as much snow as possible before March 8th. But then let’s torch! 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’m down for as much snow as possible before March 8th. But then let’s torch! 

I may be incorrect however I feel like whenever we torch in March we have a horrific cold and rainy April (well more than usual).

[Layman]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I may be incorrect however I feel like whenever we torch regardless of what happens in March we have a horrific cold and rainy April (well more than usual).

Fixed your post.  You're welcome 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not sure why the BOS and ORH totals are wrong there, but BOS is over 60" now and ORH is actually 75.4" and not 77.5"

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’m down for as much snow as possible before March 8th. But then let’s torch! 

Exactly. 

[Kitz Craver]

54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Get it all in before 3/8

Ehhh around 3/15 more likely 

[ORH_wxman]

I mean, there' always way for torches to fail here in this time of year, even if it "verifies" 

 

And by "verifies", i mean it actually ends up AN, but the pretty colors at 850 and 500 are way underpeforming at the sfc with CAD systems or light onshore flow. A 60F torching cutter turns into a cold 37F rain or even ice/rain. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, there' always way for torches to fail here in this time of year, even if it "verifies" 

 

And by "verifies", i mean it actually ends up AN, but the pretty colors at 850 and 500 are way underpeforming at the sfc with CAD systems or light onshore flow. A 60F torching cutter turns into a cold 37F rain or even ice/rain. 

The other verification gypping is when the orbital pattern is 70 and verifying everywhere except NE NYC because we’re pumping BDs like German shit porn 

[CT Valley Snowman]

BDL up to 51 on the season.  I'm probably a couple short of that. We've hit climo here.  That's a win in my book.  Cold with consistent snow cover.  A solid winter so far. I can't get too caught up in comparison or envy.  This area is a relative min with snowfall.   Like Cosgrove says, "Deal with it".  

[ineedsnow]

I wonder if Fridays deal ends up being Saturday some hints on 12z

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

I wonder if Fridays deal ends up being Saturday some hints on 12z

It's more Thursday night, then another wave Saturday

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It's more Thursday night, then another wave Saturday

think that's the one to watch

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It's more Thursday night, then another wave Saturday

Where are you seeing the Saturday wave? 

 

Nothing jumped out at me when I looked this morning.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Let’s melt it all in a few days and get a cutter on top of it.

Floods for one floods for all?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Floods for one floods for all?

I’m still hoping Legro can fit freshet into an AFD one of these Marches.