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Is we back? February discussion thread

mahk_webstah

By mahk_webstah,
in New England

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
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Just now, bch2014 said:

I live at about 40’ ASL, but we’re expecting snow levels to drop to 2500-3000ft by Wednesday.

The December/early January storms were too warm to bring snow to the Santa Ynez, so looking forward to being able to see the snow capped peaks from the beach for the first time since I moved here.

get your ass up into one of those mountains :snowing:

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WinterWolf right now

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Vday with Greta in the County? What a dad.

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6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

get your ass up into one of those mountains :snowing:

Tahoe area is amazing. Only been out there once but Heavenly is amazing. We had 2 to 3 feet on the first day of our ski trip and 5 days later serious spring skiing with temps in mid 40s after starting trip with highs at about 10 in the town and below zero at 10k

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vortex95

vortex95

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Complex the next week.  We have the light snow NNE overnight, then the sheared narrow band of mdt SN Wed, and then what?  GFS wants to do a pseudo-repeat of Wed on Fri, and then makes a weenie coastal.  And the ECMWF puts all its eggs in the 3rd system Fri, and a big nothing-burger for the "CoastalWx wanna-be storm!" :D  The GDPS/UKMET/ICON for the Sun-Mon coastal are in-between the GFS and ECMWF scenarios in various forms.

So lots going on, and a rather "crowded" pattern for snow events.  UA pattern fast W-E zonal first, and then amps up this weekend.

Also, you can clearly see the later Feb transition to a more blocky upper-air pattern this week, w/ the main jet across the cntrl and srn CONUS and "loose" and "confused" flow along the Canadian border.  So that further complicates things!
 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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18 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Complex the next week.  We have the light snow NNE overnight, then the sheared narrow band of mdt SN Wed, and then what?  GFS wants to do a pseudo-repeat of Wed on Fri, and then makes a weenie coastal.  And the ECMWF puts all its eggs in the 3rd system Fri, and a big nothing-burger for the "CoastalWx wanna-be storm!" :D  The GDPS/UKMET/ICON for the Sun-Mon coastal are in-between the GFS and ECMWF scenarios in various forms.

So lots going on, and a rather "crowded" pattern for snow events.  UA pattern fast W-E zonal first, and then amps up this weekend.

Also, you can clearly see the later Feb transition to a more blocky upper-air pattern this week, w/ the main jet across the cntrl and srn CONUS and "loose" and "confused" flow along the Canadian border.  So that further complicates things!
 

There is an interesting relative max in the PNA that takes place 23-26th; it's nested in the midst of an ongoing submerged PNA.  It's like a sub-surface sea mount with a buoy blinker to warn passing ships. Ha 

There's some other everyday reasons to suspect less coastal crawling big dawg solutions are favored, but that bold aspect about the zonal/W-E is big correction lean that's a pretty big one.  Pig solutions at this D7-10 range also tend to lose amplitude as they are relayed inward in time. That's more than less an ongoing operational weather forecasting application aspect.   But combining that with the former ... I tell you what, it would be fun ironic if this one fought off all those reason and worked out for the better.

There is still the relative PNA spike.

 

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

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1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

I thought the same thing.  First, who said this?  Second, context?  Third, is it a facetious post?

I mean he did and the context is 171HR frame of the Icon. I'm just wondering what the hell that came from, im guessing it was fed into AI and it spit back out something that looks cooler based on the prompt

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

I mean he did and the context is 171HR frame of the Icon. I'm just wondering what the hell that came from, im guessing it was fed into AI and it spit back out something that looks cooler based on the prompt

bingo. AI also screwed up the date. The run shows as 12z Feb 16 2126, so 100 years from now

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Has there ever been a winter, end to end, with   0    coastals? 

I think we had a couple rainy coastals, tho unremarkable, last autumn.  But since November say.   zippo

Perhaps in the 70's or 80's...I have a vague memory of Boston setting a record for most days with snow but it didn't amount to all that much  snowfall...

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Only 146,096 runs to go

leave it to you to calculate that.

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Has there ever been a winter, end to end, with   0    coastals? 

I think we had a couple rainy coastals tho unremarkable last autumn.  But since November say.   zippo

depends how you define a coastal. Dec 2nd was a pretty strong low over just inside the BM, rain for most but N & NW MA got warning snowfall Then you have a couple weaker ones like Dec 14th and Jan 18-19th systems. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Perhaps in the 70's or 80's...I have a vague memory of Boston setting a record for most days with snow but it didn't amount to all that much  snowfall...

well... snow or not, there's been no report at all this year,  that I can recall anyway

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

leave it to you to calculate that.

depends how you define a coastal. Dec 2nd was a pretty strong low over just inside the BM, rain for most but N & NW MA got warning snowfall Then you have a couple weaker ones like Dec 14th and Jan 18-19th systems. 

well, those should count.  coastal's a coastal

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