Is we back? February discussion thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very dry overall. Looks like the whole country has some drought conditions 

I really didn't understand Raindance in the ENSO thread adamantly claiming it was an ENSO neutral season due to the presence of the STJ. It's been dry AF...the STJ will usually make at least one cameo in any given season. Sometimes I think that guy gets lightheaded sniffing his own farts.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really didn't understand Raindance in the ENSO thread adamantly claiming it was an ENSO neutral season due to the presence of the STJ. It's been dry AF...the STJ will usually make at least one cameo in any given season. Sometimes I think that guy gets lightheaded sniffing his own farts.

Yeah STJ is like a climo feature. It’s just way more active in Nino. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very dry overall. Looks like the whole country has some drought conditions 

There are varying drought conditions in about 45% of the area of the lower 48 states. 

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah STJ is like a climo feature. It’s just way more active in Nino. 

A perversion of the Nina background state/correlation, probably could use the RONI technique I'm guessin'

These ENSOs, warm and cold, have been sort of idiosyncratically uncoupled to hemispheres at times, more frequently over recent decade(s) - I recall writing about this in here, 15 years ago... Then RONI comes out and well... I don't have a problem with it because obviously (then) I was not the only one taking observational note about all this over the years.  I'm just sayn' I don't have a problem and why-for there can be a generalized Nina and still manifest aspects that seem incongruent.

Not that you asked  LOL

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

11th looks good to me for SNE overall. Funny how the AI models never liked next weekend and focused on the 11th.

I think that has a decent shot to be a nice event. That was starting to stand out later Wednesday, and more so yesterday.  We watch.  

[Typhoon Tip]

that bigger snow event we had recently was STJ driven.  You could see it coming across the Baha up underneath a S/W opening closed low as it ejected through that area.   It slid up NE over the cold dome... the rest was dopa hits -

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mid week really ramping up 

If a few inches is ramping up sure..  It's looking like Saturday will possibly be the highlight of February for many, can't get a storm to strengthen to our south.. 

[WinterWolf]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really didn't understand Raindance in the ENSO thread adamantly claiming it was an ENSO neutral season due to the presence of the STJ. It's been dry AF...the STJ will usually make at least one cameo in any given season. Sometimes I think that guy gets lightheaded sniffing his own farts.

It did on 1/25…no? 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If a few inches is ramping up sure..  It's looking like Saturday will possibly be the highlight of February for many, can't get a storm to strengthen to our south.. 

3-6/4-8 is fine . Add to pack 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

 

AIFS ensembles still like the 15-17.. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3-6/4-8 is fine . Add to pack 

Looks like 1-3" right now , could be all rain or a whiff as well.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If a few inches is ramping up sure..  It's looking like Saturday will possibly be the highlight of February for many, can't get a storm to strengthen to our south.. 

mm hm.  Sure is.  The flow is in torpedo mode. So a 'few inches' whenever/wherever it occurs might be considered more of an achievement - relative to faster flow limitations.

The western ridge refuses to gain latitudinal arc in the ongoing verification, and that's been/is keeping a modestly compressed, slightly faster than normal field, thus preferentially progressive.  Those former two aspects are constructively interfering  such that S/Ws move from circa IA clear NE of Nova Scotia in 36 hours.. What is that, 1 and 1/2 times faster than climate trajectories?   

I bet you we could create like an index finger rule, similar to the 1kt = 1mb, only for S/W vs output.  1::1 like that... for every 10% a S/W is moving faster than climo, that's 10% reduction in productivity.  -10%, and it adds because that means the system slowed down and donut stuffed a region like  Homer Simpson in hell ... who of course encounters Ned Flanders as the devil... 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Looks like 1-3" right now , could be all rain or a whiff as well.. 

1-3” ?? Looks like a nice high end advisory as of now like Scoots said 

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/raleighwx/status/2019772590475129058?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Then we have our 5 day thaw potential.. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1-3” ?? Looks like a nice high end advisory as of now like Scoots said 

Potential for 1-3/2-4 is there I think.  Looks like a narrow stripe of snow, with a whiff on the north side possible, and rain on the southern side..  If we get some redevelopment off the coast then we'd have a chance at higher totals around warning snowfall.. 

 

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, Kitz Craver said:

Gotta say the machines are pretty, pretty good. Pretty, pretty, good…

you re just saying that so when the robots become self-aware, they will come for you last.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

you re just saying that so when the robots become self-aware, they will come for you last.

You’re definitely in to something there I think…. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

It did on 1/25…no? 

Yes, my point is that is really the only time...it's never entirely dormant, but it's been dry this year for the most part.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

A perversion of the Nina background state/correlation, probably could use the RONI technique I'm guessin'

These ENSOs, warm and cold, have been sort of idiosyncratically uncoupled to hemispheres at times, more frequently over recent decade(s) - I recall writing about this in here, 15 years ago... Then RONI comes out and well... I don't have a problem with it because obviously (then) I was not the only one taking observational note about all this over the years.  I'm just sayn' I don't have a problem and why-for there can be a generalized Nina and still manifest aspects that seem incongruent.

Not that you asked  LOL

I'm just saying, regardless of ENSO and independent of any CC related factors (I'm not disputing your supported ideology), the STJ is always going to factor into some degree, every seasons. I mean...look at 1995-1996...that predated CC....but again, I'm not disputing CC or the role that it plays.

[alex]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Then we have our 5 day thaw potential.. 

I feel like we’d need more than 2-5 degrees F above normal for a thaw… that would still keep most of New England below freezing I would think?

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, alex said:

I feel like we’d need more than 2-5 degrees F above normal for a thaw… that would still keep most of New England below freezing I would think?

High temps? Most of the lower el SNE sites start pushing 40° for max temp climo around then.

[CoastalWx]

Gfs rains lol. Mid week.

[8611Blizz]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs rains lol. Mid week.

It had to show up at some point...

[SouthCoastMA]

The AIs couldn't look more different than the OPs for Wednesay. CMC and GFS OPs, specifically 

[ariof]

Back to -SN in Kendall Square. Vis about 6SM based on which hills I can barely see on the horizon.

[ariof]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs rains lol. Mid week.

The surface low on Thursday at 00Z went from the benchmark at 06Z to YBG at 12Z. What's 600 miles between friends/model runs.

[SnoSki14]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, my point is that is really the only time...it's never entirely dormant, but it's been dry this year for the most part.

Really miss the parade of STJ infused southern stream crushers of the 2000s and early 2010s. 

[tamarack]

42 minutes ago, dendrite said:

High temps? Most of the lower el SNE sites start pushing 40° for max temp climo around then.

Average max doesn't climb above 32 until early March, though 5° AN would be >32 next week.

[CoastalWx]

Definitely signs of some potential next weekend on ensembles.

 

midweek looks meh. Might be borderline temps too.