Is we back? February discussion thread

[EastonSN+]

Guessing the SSWE will not effect us.

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Guessing the SSWE will not affect us.

Holy smokes, you’re not far behind TBlizz and Scott. Where did you hear that? I don’t think we know since it hasn’t happened yet lol. 

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know. I’m happy with what I had going into MLK. But missing this, then missing a nice refresher by 8 miles, followed by end of week which doesn’t seem that promising, and now these changes culminating over the last several days….feels like the crotch kicks are back baby. 

I think that is more a personal feeling for you.  But whatever.  Sucks we missed this one now, but I’m cool with what the set up overall seems to be going forward. These individual runs will be all over the place…not putting stock in any look long term Op runs. Let’s see what Friday brings. 

[ORH_wxman]

SSWE would affect us in the first half of March if it ends up being an impactful event. The vortex split is ongoing but the max warming actually occurs closer to mid-February. Usually a mid-Feb SSWE is felt by us in 2-3 weeks so that would place us in very early March. That’s actually what happened in the 2018 Niña. Occurred during mid February and really was felt in March. It also happened in the 2001 Niña. Both produced extreme blocking patterns that really enhanced storm potential those months. 
 

Both of those years also had relaxations in second half of February. 2018 had a full torch with temps near 70F. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I think today’s nine or 10 in a row of not hitting 20 here . Something like that 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think today’s nine or 10 in a row of not hitting 20 here . Something like that 

19.7° here…chilly but a beautiful sunny day.

It’ll be interesting to see who hits or goes above 32° mid week to break the streaks. Those who avoid it will have a pretty long subfreezing streak.

[ORH_wxman]

ORH finally hit 20F today. They got 8 in a row without hitting it which puts that steak alone in 3rd place behind 1961 and 1979 which tied with 10 each. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Noted.

Just being a dick. Long range forecasting is hard...only way to get any better is falling in on your face enough (not suggesting you did). I think I have another 22-32" to go IMBY this season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

SSWE would affect us in the first half of March if it ends up being an impactful event. The vortex split is ongoing but the max warming actually occurs closer to mid-February. Usually a mid-Feb SSWE is felt by us in 2-3 weeks so that would place us in very early March. That’s actually what happened in the 2018 Niña. Occurred during mid February and really was felt in March. It also happened in the 2001 Niña. Both produced extreme blocking patterns that really enhanced storm potential those months. 
 

Both of those years also had relaxations in second half of February. 2018 had a full torch with temps near 70F. 

Those were my two top SSW analogs, and very good seasonal analogs in general. Hence the KU window in early March,

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Guessing the SSWE will not effect us.

Why is that?

[kdxken]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

19.7° here…chilly but a beautiful sunny day.

It’ll be interesting to see who hits or goes above 32° mid week to break the streaks. Those who avoid it will have a pretty long subfreezing streak.

Amazing the difference out west. Friend of mine moved to Great falls last year so I follow the temperatures.  The 10-day forecast for Great falls:

 

 

[kdxken]

This is the week I usually go to Tampa. Not missing much. 

 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why is that?

Was confused by the vibe of the forum. Seemed all the focus was on the warmup.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t think anybody said end winter Kev.  But pattens can flip. Doesn’t mean this does. The colder looks have won out this season. Warm ups have been muted pretty much every time…but we’ll have to see?  The -NAO can certainly help us…but we’ll see. 

As long as it's not like CAR in 1980-81 - Dec -9, Jan -5, Feb +14.  2/81 tied the February record max twice and broke it 7 times.

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Was confused by the vibe of the forum. Seemed all the focus was on the warmup.

Ya..a bit misleading right.

[WinterWolf]

54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

SSWE would affect us in the first half of March if it ends up being an impactful event. The vortex split is ongoing but the max warming actually occurs closer to mid-February. Usually a mid-Feb SSWE is felt by us in 2-3 weeks so that would place us in very early March. That’s actually what happened in the 2018 Niña. Occurred during mid February and really was felt in March. It also happened in the 2001 Niña. Both produced extreme blocking patterns that really enhanced storm potential those months. 
 

Both of those years also had relaxations in second half of February. 2018 had a full torch with temps near 70F. 

I remember one of those Febs…17 or 18, cuz they both had massive warmth two years in a row, hit 80 here. Then less than 24 hrs hater after the 80 degree temp it was snowing. 

[Damage In Tolland]

46 minutes ago, dendrite said:

19.7° here…chilly but a beautiful sunny day.

It’ll be interesting to see who hits or goes above 32° mid week to break the streaks. Those who avoid it will have a pretty long subfreezing streak.

My guess is only ENE along coasts . Maybe CT shore 

[Damage In Tolland]

40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH finally hit 20F today. They got 8 in a row without hitting it which puts that steak alone in 3rd place behind 1961 and 1979 which tied with 10 each. 

18.8 here but had more clouds 

[Ginx snewx]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just being a dick. Long range forecasting is hard...only way to get any better is falling in on your face enough (not suggesting you did). I think I have another 22-32" to go IMBY this season.

That would give me my 56 I had thought I would get post NY

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Guessing the SSWE will not effect us.

Like an injured fawn limping through a field while a wolf salivates from the wood line.

[CoastalWx]

Today turned out nice with a high of 22. 

[CoastalWx]

Fropa on the gfs still later in the week.

[HoarfrostHubb]

My last time over 20 was January 23.  A couple of 19s in there so close. 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fropa on the gfs still later in the week.

I remember you said the same thing leading up to NYE and we all ended up 2-5”. It’ll be a few inches of WAA snows Friday night . And then we’ll see if there’s squalls with front 

[wx2fish]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fropa on the gfs still later in the week.

Roaring winds aloft there over the weekend. Only thing that could limit things some is the cold is shallow and it ends up inverted aloft. 

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I remember you said the same thing leading up to NYE and we all ended up 2-5”. It’ll be a few inches of WAA snows Friday night . And then we’ll see if there’s squalls with front 

I wasn’t even here. And I’m telling you what the gfs has you meat.

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Roaring winds aloft there over the weekend. Only thing that could limit things some is the cold is shallow and it ends up inverted aloft. 

Take some roofs off if it can’t snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fropa on the gfs still later in the week.

sufficed it is to say ... should this beast happen to correct and pass under L.I., that's our season defining event right there.  not this last one ... it would double totals and destroy from wind impacts in one simultaneous horror bomb.   

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

sufficed it is to say ... should this beast happen to correct and pass under L.I., that's our season defining event right there.  not this last one ... it would double totals and destroy from wind impacts in one simultaneous horror bomb.   

We could only hope. Seems like a tough task at the moment.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wasn’t even here. And I’m telling you what the gfs has you meat.

No i know you weren’t , but I distinctly remember you saying the same thing and followed it up with you didn’t care that you were missing a dusting . And then got a massive 3” squall and were upset you missed it