Is we back? February discussion thread

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Destiny prove me wrong and so be it,   Friday is just an intense arctic boundary - probably one that also attenuates a little in guidance as the week goes forward. 

Yeah that’s been hinted at. Could be a fropa. 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That s/w on Friday does look tasty. Hopefully that can produce.

It’s coming 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Destiny prove me wrong and so be it,   Friday is just an intense arctic boundary - probably one that also attenuates a little in guidance as the week goes forward. 

It’s very similar to one we had NYE/ NYD with a couple inches of snow in WAA and then maybe a heavy squall with front 

[Diggiebot]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s coming 

Heard this before…..

[Kitz Craver]

Trust me I want that clippah to dig a bit and produce for us 100% but as Will said it looks paltry as of late and could be more of a Fropa with little accumulation. Let’s hope we can grab a few

[HoarfrostHubb]

I will still watch for a little clipper or two over the next week or so. Nothing big but maybe a net gain.      As Scott said, the moderation in temps could help us. 

[EastonSN+]

AO positive by late month?

[ORH_wxman]

32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just imho, but any below normal month in this era+ is quite an achievement.  

There's probably a relativity value, like a monthly RONI for atmospheric departures, where a -1 month in 2026 becomes a greater significance compared to doing that in 1986   

A more here and now subject, I find this interesting from NASA for December.   I wonder what January will work out to.  I'm guessing it will be more negative in the mid latitudes ... just by arithmetic from the Climate Analyzer folks.  Their on-going monitoring has a whopper warm arctic domain, while the N.H. et al has sunk some... so in terms of anomaly distribution that only leaves the sub-arctic regions to be driving that downward trend.   

 

That’s using 1951-1980 normals though…which is also the coldest 30 year period in winter for a chunk of NE in the last 100 years (gotta go back to earlier 20th century to beat it)….much easier to get BN on ‘91-20 normals. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s very similar to one we had NYE/ NYD with a couple inches of snow in WAA and then maybe a heavy squall with front 

yeah, I could see that too - kind of like a 'glorified' arctic front.  

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s using 1951-1980 normals though…which is also the coldest 30 year period in winter for a chunk of NE in the last 100 years (gotta go back to earlier 20th century to beat it)….much easier to get BN on ‘91-20 normals. 

Okay... well, relative to that product scope, then.  I still suggest the mid latitude are colder in January than December.  

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Okay... well, relative to that product scope, then.  I still suggest the mid latitude are colder in January than December.  

I agree with you…just was pointing out that those maps (esp near us due to regional climate variability) will make it look a lot warmer than our more conventional departures would suggest given the ‘51-80 base period….january was def more -AO so prob larger mid-latitude bands of colder airmass. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Here's the 1980-2010 for shits n gigs

[Snowcrazed71]

53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well when does the mild/warm pattern begin? Like next week ?

It's not set in stone... And it's NOT going to get Mild and Warm.just look what happened the last time the models showed this ( twice I think ) it went back to the cold pattern. Of course this won't last forever as spring has to come, but we still have plenty of time.. maybe a brief milder period. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree with you…just was pointing out that those maps (esp near us due to regional climate variability) will make it look a lot warmer than our more conventional departures would suggest given the ‘51-80 base period….january was def more -AO so prob larger mid-latitude bands of colder airmass. 

yeah, that's the only point I was trying to make... I think it's useful because there seems to be some debate about the cold aspect this year?   

heh, I don't ultimately care that much just sayn'

[bristolri_wx]

Deep winter in Colt State Park in Bristol.

[bristolri_wx]

Just now, bristolri_wx said:

Deep winter in Colt State Park in Bristol.

And some freezing of Narragansett Bay… it’s been a while.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

Jan 8-15th were pretty mild with some double digit positive departures. That stretch kept the month overall from really hitting the next level overall. Still ended up solidly below normal though.

Now for my favorite game of “what if we used 1961-1990 normals” 

Station | Jan ‘26 temps | 1991-2020 norms | 1961-1990 norms
CON | 20.3° | -2.0° | +1.7°
PWM | 21.2° | -2.8° | +0.4°
BOS | 28.0° | -1.9° | -0.6°
ORH | 21.8° | -2.9° | -1.0°
PVD | 27.4° | -2.8° | -0.5°
BDL | 24.0° | -3.1° | -0.6°
BDR | 28.7° | -2.7° | -0.2°

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

AO positive by late month?

I was looking at these indices this morning... 

Before anyone ( or the straw man ) goes and says something dim witted like 'see what the indices did for us, today', just be made aware that the indices ferreted out any kind of storm event on the 1st, at all.  As a primer, these indexes don't guarantee one's back yard  is full and their dopa circuitry triggered.   But they do elucidate the periods of time where one should be looking.  Better than not having any means at all... 

Having said that, the indices don't look particularly good.  But they don't look absolutely abysmal for winter enthusiasts, either.  

The basic spread looks like alleviating neutral AO, -PNA, +EPO, -NAO by the 15th.  

If it were not for the -NAO aspect, which is also fairly elaborately illustrated in all the ensembles in their spatial representation of the hemispheric scaled synopsis at mid month, I would be buckin' for an early spring.  Really early!  I don't trust any warm signal post 2000 era of hockey stick climate bursting to actually fall short if given any excuse to stand up tall.   But... thankfully for winter enthusiasm, the -NAO ( which is a fine complementary phase state for -1 SD PNA btw ), that imparts a different play ground.   I would think overrunning circumstances.  I don't like the coastals in the guidance, tho.  I suggest most of those fail.   Or, if one succeeds, it likely to be a NJ model type narrow corridor system.     Two caveats, 1 ... NAOs, even in the ensembles, routinely present certain challenges to prediction at extended leads.  The amplitude, or even existence, both.  It could be that it all redistributes to a -EPO. I've seen  -NAO failures/reposition to Alaska a couple of times this year as a matter of fact.  So we'll see.   The 2nd caveat is suppression...if the -NAO goes ahead and materializes with that -PNA underneath, the flow could very easily torpedo with velocity and all that - it's not exactly something we haven't felt jammed up bums since CC rape began many "moons" ago. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Feb 1st. Clock is officially ticking on winter.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Scott's being a tool

Nothing says epic like 7” across 360 hours in peak winter. Going to be boring 2+ weeks

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Now for my favorite game of “what if we used 1961-1990 normals” 

Station | Jan ‘26 temps | 1991-2020 norms | 1961-1990 norms
CON | 20.3° | -2.0° | +1.7°
PWM | 21.2° | -2.8° | +0.4°
BOS | 28.0° | -1.9° | -0.6°
ORH | 21.8° | -2.9° | -1.0°
PVD | 27.4° | -2.8° | -0.5°
BDL | 24.0° | -3.1° | -0.6°
BDR | 28.7° | -2.7° | -0.2°

There’s a wolf lurking.

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Nothing says epic like 7” across 360 hours in peak winter. Going to be boring 2+ weeks

7" is iffy as well

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s a wolf lurking.

[CoastalWx]

Gfs with a little light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

[dendrite]

“Your old climate norms are dead”

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Your global warming alarmists are dead. 

[dendrite]

Uhoh he’s posting. Wolfie we’re just having fun. It’s been cold and very wintry. 

[WinterWolf]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Incorrect. I felt good about last week coming north. I posted exactly that and mocked that webb dude for saying it wasn’t. It looks quiet for awhile. Only thing is mane a few inches possible Friday night but that’s it until the pattern shakes up. There are no magic storms popping until that happens. 

Not initially you didn’t. It was congrats Richmond and The Carolina’s from you. And that was before the Webb thing.  And the one before that you didn’t either.
 

It’s all good and doesn’t matter. Point is Things change all the time. As this just did, and last week too, and the week before that did too. This clipper/boundary whatever it looks to be, will change/morph too.  What looks quiet now, may/or may not be as we move forward in time. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs with a little light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Welcome back 

[bristolri_wx]

Nothing brings on snow more than no snow in the long range ensemble runs!

Seriously, as long as it’s cold, there’s a chance something materializes. I would be more worried if they were showing relaxation like earlier in January, which they not look to be, just moderation of a very anomalous cold pattern. Euro weeklies still look decent in terms of pattern, and they have been pretty good this winter in terms of general 500mb conditions/outcomes…