Is we back? February discussion thread

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's because of the MJO IMHO.....if you notice, it always finds a way to minimize both residence and amplitude in phase 8...and even the few days it spends there, it's some non-comital BS like split-forcing. The fast flow is what it is, but it's not fast enough to prevent bombs for the Great Lakes and Canadian Maritimes. I do think CC plays a role, but it's more about the disproportionate warming in the West Pacific predisposing the convective forcing to MC positioning, while repelling it from the more favorable (relative to east coast cyclogenesis) dateline and African continent. 

I may be missquoting EasternLI, however I THOUGHT he mentioned that the warm pool was slowly moving east and can eventually be in a favorable location.

 

[EastonSN+]

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I may be missquoting EasternLI, however I THOUGHT he mentioned that the warm pool was slowly moving east and can eventually be in a favorable location.

 

Still looks pinned to MC to me, and the behavior of the MJO this season reflects that. We have gotten the cold due to the combo of weak-east biased La Nina, strong East QBO and near solar max (as I explained ad nauseum last fall), but notice the big east coast storms still remain absent.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Last storm was a way around that due to the extreme nature of the airmass...but it wasn't a big, phased coastal until it got beyond us.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still looks pinned to MC to me, and the behavior of the MJO this season reflects that. We have gotten the cold due to the combo of weak-east biased La Nina, strong East QBO and near solar max (as I explained ad nauseum last fall), but notice the big east coast storms still remain absent.

Until this changes, we are going to remain largely cursed with respect to east coast phasing IMHO.

[cleetussnow]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everyone gets how far off it is....what else is there to talk about, solutions that aren't modeled?

We do that all the time.  For some, most of the time.

[Damage In Tolland]

Will stopped posting….

[CoastalWx]

Later in the 11-15 day we develop some western troughing. But the -NAO is on roids and we have confluence to our northeast. So that probably means shrederola. Maybe at times we can try to squeeze in some overrunning if timed right.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will stopped posting….

It’s going to be pretty quiet in here this week.

[Snowcrazed71]

There's always that chance that we just stay cold and dry for the month. But as we all know, things could change in a heartbeat. Look what happened with this past storm. Earlier this week it looked like we were going to have a pretty good event for most of the the area, but it trended away. The same can happen with something upcoming where a storm could way offshore and out to sea but could trend back to the West. Point is, we wouldn't be here if we didn't believe there'd be something else. 

If nothing else, most of us are here to getaway from our everyday lives. We may joke around, some of us get on each other's nerves, but we still come back. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Obviously going to be hard to get a true coastal where we need it with our luck lately, but we will be tracking again very soon when the GFS/EURO tease us with a bomb next Friday, potential is there, can we finally reel a coastal in? 00z GFS was very close and 12z Euro yesterday. Then after that a nice overrunning signal for day 10 and beyond.. 

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s going to be pretty quiet in here this week.

Just talk about south facing slopes and snow melt 

[dendrite]

Phil tracker

Not looking good…need that little blob of clouds to verify over Punxsutawney.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just talk about south facing slopes and snow melt 

I’m in.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everyone gets how far off it is....what else is there to talk about, solutions that aren't modeled?

All I meant was, this threat looked great on Sunday/Monday, then went to shit a day later.  Now This looks like shit now, maybe it gets better as we move forward.
 

There will be players/shortwaves/shit streaks/confluence etc… that can’t be seen yet, that will affect what happens with these threats, that can help or hurt our chances. 

[CoastalWx]

We just don’t know. Nobody knows. 

[Kitz Craver]

Lotta local Mets going Stein

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pattern moving forward kind of looks like December again, but hopefully maybe a bit less pronounced on the WPO?

I wouldn't mind December redux...   clippahs, litle events... if we aren't getting any bigguns

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I wouldn't mind December redux...   clippahs, litle events... if we aren't getting any bigguns

I'd just assume be done with it if that's the case, but no choice.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd just assume be done with it if that's the case, but no choice.

Understandable... I got 20ish inches in December in several smaller events... I love good storms but will take pack refreshers

[WinterWolf]

55 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Understandable... I got 20ish inches in December in several smaller events... I love good storms but will take pack refreshers

Ya..December was decent here…I realize other areas it wasn’t too good though.  Bottom line is it’s looking wintry so we’ll have chances 

[ORH_wxman]

I like the look Feb 5-12. Looks like there could be a few chances. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like the look Feb 5-12. Looks like there could be a few chances. 

Agreed. 

[WinterWolf]

This is our blacktop area here at school, where the kids have recess…it’s looked like this all week, and in direct sunlight most of the day.  Not melting..except where the plows tires(with salt) wore out the snow.  So that was my point when I said there has been very little melting.  Now of course some sublimation might have happened, but it’s negligible. 

[mreaves]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like the look Feb 5-12. Looks like there could be a few chances. 

Hmmm... I was told you stopped posting.

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Hmmm... I was told you stopped posting.

Pretty boring for the next 5-6 days, but we'll have more chances coming up. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty boring for the next 5-6 days, but we'll have more chances coming up. 

I’m worried things look a little shredded with that pattern. I guess we could have some clippers or maybe some quick late bloomers.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah ... I see more of the same shit propensity continuing, unfortunately.  

In the objective sense, of course there are 'chances'.  I think however we're in troubling trends endemic to this season (probably longer ) I don't see how that's stopping enough to make said chances very good.  

Scott touched on one of the reason in the compendium of whys, the -NAO needs to be considered as an indication for track behavior as well as possible damping effects (damping in this context is when upstream systems are forced weaker as they come east)

But above and beyond that there is this back ground tendency of emerging noise, noise that turns out to be real.  Moreover and most importantly, noise that is unknowable at longer leads.  It's just simply not being seen very well by the physical processing of guidance out in time these days.  Some of that is normal... Chaos/entropy, it gathers out in time in these complex systems of positive and negative synergies. Fine.  However, there appears to be more of it than the normal quotient expectation.  Speed in the atmosphere manifests in 3 ways:  1, the general winds around all features are faster than normal; 2, the S/W that are born within that maelstrom will inherit the wind and thus via wave physics be faster moving - this is also always been inherently a problem for guidance with fast progressive flow; 3, the rate of emergence and decay et al, these 2ndary and tertiary events .. come into and out of existence faster.  All these aspects can be tied together via the Navier-Stokes mathematics. 

This aspect blindly doomed the current system moving off the SE Coast out into the Atlantic on Sunday. Compared to the guidance portrayal earlier on...

 

6 or so days ago when this "threat" on the EC was elaborated by the models, this encircled annotation above was retard back upstream, not nearly as coherently influencing matters...in fact, it really was not there... But it has evolved faster as a complete deep trough-ridge couplet up there ... en masse, moving ESE into the domain space of this whopper you see pushed/forced ENE ...  I think Brian was mentioning this yesterday.  And all this interference crap still fits unfortunately safely inside this type impressive +PNA mode we're in...

Anyway, long of the short ... I don't see that model performance is going to be very good moving forward.  As in, worse than normal. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

I think Thursday / Friday have a good shot 

[ORH_wxman]

I'm a little sicko for -PNA/-NAO patterns....so I'm ok with the look going into the 2nd week of Feb after the PNA breaks down. Maybe we can go Feb '69.

Or early Feb 2021?