The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Weather Will said:

HR 105

Well se will enjoy it. Not anyone else 

[snowfan]

GFS isn’t going to get it done. It’s a step back from 0Z. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS

[Weather Will]

Just now, snowfan said:

GFS isn’t going to get it done. It’s a step back from 0Z. 

Positive that we did not lose it to the east yet; we wait for 6Z EURO.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS says Sunday will at least be windy and frigid.

[RevWarReenactor]

GFS folded. Shocker.

 

I think its time to put this one to bed for areas along I-95. Sorry.

[RevWarReenactor]

Seeing that snowhole from DC to NYC while VA and NC get a blizzard is heartbreaking though. Thats how we roll here.

[snowfan]

BTW, 0Z euro kept most at or below freezing until Feb 7. 

[Terpeast]

Seeing all that snow just next door south of us makes me think we're definitely still in the game. Like PSU said, we just want that to trend north at game time. If that snow was to the east of us instead of south, this thing is DOA.

[wdcrob]

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

One observation before tonight's runs....

Need a north trend = good shape

Need a west trend = next

This is because of typical model bias errors.  Models very commonly are too far south in the medium range with northern stream mid and upper level features.  That H5 low is likely to adjust north some in the final 48 hours.  So if things start to trend towards a solution closer to the GFS, again not necessarily that extreme, but with a miss somewhat to our SOUTH not EAST... we are in the game going into the final 48 because I expect the same bleed north we see 75% of the time.  

Models do NOT, however, have a bias of usually amplifying too slowly in phase situations.  If anything it's the opposite.  Miller b storms trend east more often than west.  So if the guidance converges on the more east idea with a more positively tilted upper low that doesn't close off until 6-12 hours later and we need a west trend... this is dead going into the final 48 hours.  

 

[CAPE]

Still ok on the mean

[Weather Will]

EB 6Z GEFS compared to OZ

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS.  Still about 50% chance for area wide event; higher SE

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

EB 6Z GEFS compared to OZ

 

So a 60 mile shift north and we're getting the goods. 60 miles at a lead time of 4 days is nothing. 

Also notice the highest snowfall has backed to the south of us (S VA) in 6z instead of remaining east in 0z.

[stormtracker]

32 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

GFS folded. Shocker.

 

I think its time to put this one to bed for areas along I-95. Sorry.

Yeah, with heavy snow 50 miles to the south on models that never trend north, it’s time to stop tracking.   See you Monday.  Gonna miss your always insightful posts. 

[mappy]

I don’t know half the people posting ITT. So many new folks. So much banter. 

[Weather Will]

0Z CFS is good; no idea if it is ever right.

[Cary]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, with heavy snow 50 miles to the south on models that never trend north, it’s time to stop tracking.   See you Monday.  Gonna miss your always insightful posts. 

Spit my soda at this

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

0Z CFS is good; no idea if it is ever right.

That's snow depth measuring what's already on the ground that isn't melting.

[WesternFringe]

5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Added to previous post; about the same.

Those are both 0z you posted.

[Roger Smith]

Pretty rare to see a southwest moving upper cold core and so you have to wonder how skilled would any models be in resolving future motions of the resultant energy? My subjective guess is that they would have little or no skill, so therefore the only part of any model run we can trust at this stage is out to 96-102h, what happens after that is purely conjecture from low-skill models (all of them in this case). I believe in reality you have a 50-50 shot at a significant snowstorm in DC and  BAL from this foundation. NYC is probably closer to 25%, then it's back up towards 50-50 in New England (70% Cape Cod). I think it's 80 to 90 per cent locked in that s.e. VA and some parts of NC see large snowfalls, there is not going to be an inland complicating primary with this.

[dailylurker]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, with heavy snow 50 miles to the south on models that never trend north, it’s time to stop tracking.   See you Monday.  Gonna miss your always insightful posts. 

Our last snow was modeled to hit VA at this lead. It ended up 400 miles north. Hell.. by tomorrow this could be congrats Hershey Park (why the hell did i us Hershey Park). We're still in the game.

[wasnow215]

14 minutes ago, mappy said:

I don’t know half the people posting ITT. So many new folks. So much banter. 

They'll learn- at least some haha. Always thankful for new folks. It keeps this thing going 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z AI still says no...

[Ji]

0Z CFS is good; no idea if it is ever right.

Pro tip: it’s not

[Jebman]

We still have plenty of time for this to trend more in favor of snow blitzing the DMV. We are still about 3 days out. I like where we are right now. We're gonna reel this one in.

Just the thought of all that fresh pow piling on top of a deep ice glacier in the DCA region is mind-boggling.

[Kevin Reilly]

I think it’s evident that the kicker on the NS coming SE out of central Canada into the Dakotas is knocking our storm eastbound.  This has happened before in the past and is the most likely scenario.  The storm develops but it just cannot climb delicate set up to say the least. 
 

it’s that last line that will have me watching this until 12z Thursday what else is there to do but pray for that 3 day shift. So far though fun storm to track and that’s why I’m here. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO is running

[SoCoWx]

Seeing that snowhole from DC to NYC while VA and NC get a blizzard is heartbreaking though. Thats how we roll here.

I promise you it’s not as heartbreaking as the possibility of Norfolk and Virginia Beach getting yet another monster storm while Richmond gets scraped.

They all complain, every year, how they “never get snow” there, and yet, they’ve had numerous big storms there in the last several years while Richmond hasn’t cracked 7” since 2018.


.

[Benjamn3]

If any of this comes to be, it reminds me of what my grandpa used to say, “snow that sticks around is usually waiting on more.”