February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[Brian5671]

Could be a hot summer nationwide with such dry soils everywhere

[donsutherland1]

Somewhat cooler weather has returned to the region. Temperatures will mainly top out in the middle to upper 30s tomorrow. The weekend will see highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. It could become even milder with highs in the lower to perhaps middle 40s next week.

Some precipitation could arrive on Sunday or Monday. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +7.93 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.731 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.