February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even with the big warm up across North America the next few weeks, the Northeast is still only getting back closer to average.

 

The back of winter appears to be broken on those maps.    With normals climbing that's probably 40-45 degrees here

[weatherpruf]

29 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Or we’ll have foggy drizzly crap in the 40s on easterly winds. Misery but without the benefit of rain for the water table/reservoirs. 

this. can't fish, can't garden. 

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The back of winter appears to be broken on those maps.    With normals climbing that's probably 40-45 degrees here

Correct. That is not arctic cold

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The back of winter appears to be broken on those maps.    With normals climbing that's probably 40-45 degrees here

The coldest is definitely behind us but cold enough to snow at the end of the month-hopefully and get it to time up with some moisture. We need some luck since we’re back to the garbage hostile Pacific pattern of the last few winters. 

[SnoSki14]

Drought severity expanded in NJ and other regions. Not a shock since all we had was a snow shower and some freezing drizzle in the past 2+ weeks. 

A warm March would be very bad unless preceeded by rainy weather. Snowpack melt helps a bit but won't be enough.  

[TJW014]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

 

Incredible to see California being one of the only states without any drought.

[NorthShoreWx]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

... Even 2015 wasn't bad....

Understatement of the year.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Understatement of the year.

NYC

Feb 2015: 23.9 -12.0

Mar 2015: 38.1 -4.7

Apr 2015: 54.3 +0.6

May 2015: 68.5 +5.3

 

[Picard]

9 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Incredible to see California being one of the only states without any drought.

The D2 drought category had been removed from northern NJ and eastern PA after the storm 2 1/2 weeks ago, only to be added right back with this update.

Dryness continues.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I do have to agree with @NEG NAO's maps of late February. I think there is a small window of opportunity for cold (and maybe a snowstorm) in the final week of February, but this will be like threading the needle.

However, it is not going to last, as the MJO is heading towards phase 6 in the last days of February or the first days of March. That's the worst phase for cold and snow. Those hoping for a 3rd act 4/7/2003 snowstorm, I just don't see it in the cards this spring.

And you have nailed it this whole season since October. You're one, two and three month predictions have been phenomenal. We don't even feel worthy of them anymore.

Maybe take them to the New England Forum for awhile so they can benefit too.  I'm sure the gang there would love your constant warm bias, I mean insight.

[MANDA]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ECMWF-AIFS is moving into it s high-skill range, where it continues to outperform the non-AI guidance. It continues to show very little prospect for the kind of occasional snowy solution that has popped up from time to time on some of the guidance. At 500 mb, its map tells the story about the low probability of phasing. The northern energy is well in front of the southern energy. This limits the risk of interaction, much less phasing.

Not surprisingly, the other guidance now appears to be in line with the AIFS, with none showing a snowy solution for the NYC area. If one looks at the EPS ensembles, 16% showed 6" or more snow and fewer than 6% of members  showed 10" or more snow during the 2/12 0z cycle vs. the respective 22% and 12% during the 2/11 0z cycle (in which the operational ECMWF showed a phased solution).

Although it's premature to suggest that precipitation, should it arrive, cannot start as a little snow, sleet or mixed precipitation, the idea of a phased solution with significant snowfall appears unlikely. As has been the case much of this winter, should that outcome verify, the ECMWF-AIFS will again have led the way at an impressive lead time.

Finally, the ECMWF-AIFS map 36 hours later shows a distinct failure to phase.

In addition to all you have shown those maps clearly show significant changes in the pattern than what we have been in for the last 4-6 weeks.  PV has retreated into north central Canada with the coldest of the air trapped underneath it.  More energy coming into the west coast.  High latitude blocking has faded.  Western ridge has shifted west to western Alaska.  STJ looks a little more pronounced.  Looks like our weather pattern here will be more northern stream dominated over the next week or so.  We'll be on the southern fringe of cooler Canadian air and northern fringe of milder air moving eastward from the central U.S.  Hard to envision any meaningful snow over the next 7 to maybe 10 days.

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

For most of our forum we’re in moderate drought and severe further SW in the DC area. We’ll definitely be in severe by mid to late spring without a turnaround. 

Without a significant turnaround during March and April can foresee water restrictions coming for the Summer season.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And you have nailed it this whole season since October. You're one, two and three month predictions have been phenomenal. We don't even feel worthy of them anymore.

Maybe take them to the New England Forum for awhile so they can benefit too.  I'm sure the gang there would love your constant warm bias, I mean insight.

Before the season, I called for a BN December (verified), but AN January and February (bust). When I saw the late season was not going to verify, I revised the forecast to BN February (looks better), AN March and April (TBD).

AN March seems like a lock if the MJO to phase 6 to begin March verifies.

[SACRUS]

 

Sun now building in from the NE

 

[FPizz]

9 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Before the season, I called for a BN December (verified), but AN January and February (bust). When I saw the late season was not going to verify, I revised the forecast to BN February (looks better), AN March and April (TBD).

AN March seems like a lock if the MJO to phase 6 to begin March verifies.

The Euro is going into phase 6?

[SACRUS]

 

The last time it was

 

EWR:

>50 : Jan 14
>60 :  Nov 26 
>70 :  Nov 5
> 80:  Oct 7

NYC:
>50:  Jan 14
>60:  Nov 9
>70: Oct 19
>80:  Oct 7

[psv88]

34 and sunny off a low of 28. Can’t believe this snow pack is still here. Still 4-5” in full sun areas, 7-8” in shaded spots. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

34 and sunny off a low of 28. Can’t believe this snow pack is still here. Still 4-5” in full sun areas, 7-8” in shaded spots. 

That’s what 2” of sleet driven into it will do. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

14 minutes ago, FPizz said:

The Euro is going into phase 6?

The Euro shows a COD.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The Euro shows a COD.

COD is better-phase 6 usually warm

[nycwinter]

54 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Incredible to see California being one of the only states without any drought.

weird considering it has been very dry in california the last month..

[Volcanic Winter]

Last two days really started killing it, but still holding on surprisingly well. Best retention since the 2013-2015 block down here, no question. 
 

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Last two days really started killing it, but still holding on surprisingly well. Best retention since the 2013-2015 block down here, no question. 
 

I’m super impressed by how long the snow cover has held out in Manhattan. 

[FPizz]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

COD is better-phase 6 usually warm

I thought it had it going into 1 by the 24th or so

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

59 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Before the season, I called for a BN December (verified), but AN January and February (bust). When I saw the late season was not going to verify, I revised the forecast to BN February (looks better), AN March and April (TBD).

AN March seems like a lock if the MJO to phase 6 to begin March verifies.

Credit to you for admitting your blown forecasts, some on here just run away when they don't work out.
 

Personally, I believe any forecasts one month out or more are just a guessing game. Maybe you can reduce the odds a little with research and analysis but not enough to make them worthwhile in my opinion.