February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[eduggs]

The 18z EPS-AIFS are very snowy, which is suspicious. A few of the individuals continue to show a high end snowstorm, which skews the mean, but even the median is decent for snow. It's strange considering how far off most guidance looks in the upper levels from supporting a coastal SLP. It looks like there is a lot of sensitivity with respect to phasing of the northern stream. And a small amount of phasing could lead to a significant surface response.

[nycsnow]

lol keeps going south…. Can’t even get rain. What a crappy pattern

[MJO812]

46 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 18z EPS-AIFS are very snowy, which is suspicious. A few of the individuals continue to show a high end snowstorm, which skews the mean, but even the median is decent for snow. It's strange considering how far off most guidance looks in the upper levels from supporting a coastal SLP. It looks like there is a lot of sensitivity with respect to phasing of the northern stream. And a small amount of phasing could lead to a significant surface response.

Storm is done

Euro is a terrible model

[NorthShoreWx]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months.

Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean.

It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.

I had snow on the ground every day of March 2015.

[Prue11]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months.

Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean.

It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.

Dude what? March 2015 was a legit winter month the whole month here on Long Island. Snow on the ground almost every day of the month and some decent events too 
 

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months.

Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean.

It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.

Terrible post 

2010-2011 wasn't a below normal winter. Even 2015 wasn't bad.

You must be related to snowman19.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, nycsnow said:

lol keeps going south…. Can’t even get rain. What a crappy pattern

Looks like an Archambault event….

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like an Archambault event….

Thats what the teleconnections showed. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Terrible post 

2010-2011 wasn't a below normal winter. Even 2015 wasn't bad.

You must be related to snowman19.

All those were historical winters:

2009-2010	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	12.4	2.1	36.9	T	0.0	0.0	0.0	51.4
2010-2011	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	20.1	36.0	4.8	1.0	T	0.0	0.0	61.9

2014-2015

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

1.0

16.9

13.6

18.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

50.3

[donsutherland1]

The ECMWF-AIFS is moving into it s high-skill range, where it continues to outperform the non-AI guidance. It continues to show very little prospect for the kind of occasional snowy solution that has popped up from time to time on some of the guidance. At 500 mb, its map tells the story about the low probability of phasing. The northern energy is well in front of the southern energy. This limits the risk of interaction, much less phasing.

Not surprisingly, the other guidance now appears to be in line with the AIFS, with none showing a snowy solution for the NYC area. If one looks at the EPS ensembles, 16% showed 6" or more snow and fewer than 6% of members  showed 10" or more snow during the 2/12 0z cycle vs. the respective 22% and 12% during the 2/11 0z cycle (in which the operational ECMWF showed a phased solution).

Although it's premature to suggest that precipitation, should it arrive, cannot start as a little snow, sleet or mixed precipitation, the idea of a phased solution with significant snowfall appears unlikely. As has been the case much of this winter, should that outcome verify, the ECMWF-AIFS will again have led the way at an impressive lead time.

Finally, the ECMWF-AIFS map 36 hours later shows a distinct failure to phase.

[bluewave]

This has been one of our driest winters so far since 1991 along with last winter.

Driest 12-1 to 2-11 periods since 1991

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2002-02-11	4.28	0
2	1992-02-11	5.01	0
3	2026-02-11	5.41	1
4	2007-02-11	5.90	0
5	2025-02-11	6.04	0
6	2022-02-11	6.47	0
7	2000-02-11	6.49	0
8	2001-02-11	6.73	0
9	2018-02-11	7.44	0
10	2003-02-11	7.49	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2002-02-11	4.72	0
2	2007-02-11	6.01	0
3	1992-02-11	6.06	0
4	2026-02-11	6.16	0
5	2025-02-11	6.38	0
6	2000-02-11	6.56	0
7	2022-02-11	7.04	0
8	2001-02-11	7.08	0
9	2003-02-11	7.10	0
10	2012-02-11	7.35	0

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2002-02-11	4.92	0
2	2012-02-11	5.77	0
3	2000-02-11	5.95	0
4	2026-02-11	6.42	0
5	2007-02-11	6.53	0
6	2005-02-11	7.01	0
7	1995-02-11	7.10	0
8	1992-02-11	7.15	0
9	2001-02-11	7.41	0
10	2021-02-11	7.65	0

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2002-02-11	4.28	0
2	2000-02-11	4.57	0
3	2026-02-11	5.82	0
4	2001-02-11	5.90	0
5	1992-02-11	6.28	0
6	2022-02-11	6.60	0
7	1991-02-11	6.68	0
8	2012-02-11	6.77	0
9	2003-02-11	6.98	0
10	1993-02-11	7.00	0

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2002-02-11	5.13	0
2	2007-02-11	5.59	0
3	1992-02-11	5.95	0
4	2025-02-11	6.12	0
5	2026-02-11	6.42	0
6	2000-02-11	6.47	0
7	2018-02-11	7.10	0
8	1995-02-11	7.33	0
9	2022-02-11	7.36	0
10	2003-02-11	8.38	0

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021-02-11	3.47	7
2	2002-02-11	3.58	0
3	2026-02-11	3.76	0
4	2022-02-11	4.66	0
5	2007-02-11	4.84	0
6	2025-02-11	5.17	0
7	2020-02-11	5.25	2
8	2017-02-11	5.35	0
9	2011-02-11	5.81	0
10	2003-02-11	6.02	0

 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2002-02-11	3.66	0
2	2026-02-11	4.42	0
3	2007-02-11	4.74	0
4	2022-02-11	4.88	0
5	2021-02-11	5.09	0
6	2025-02-11	5.49	0
7	2016-02-11	5.79	0
8	2011-02-11	5.83	0
9	2017-02-11	5.88	0
10	2010-02-11	5.96	0

 

[SnoSki14]

With next system going south the dry streak will continue. This will be very bad heading into spring. Things need to turn around quickly 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

With next system going south the dry streak will continue. This will be very bad heading into spring. Things need to turn around quickly 

For most of our forum we’re in moderate drought and severe further SW in the DC area. We’ll definitely be in severe by mid to late spring without a turnaround. 

[JustinRP37]

12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

With next system going south the dry streak will continue. This will be very bad heading into spring. Things need to turn around quickly 

Don’t worry, we signed my son up for baseball again. It will rain every weekend starting in April and lasting until June. This is the Ball model and is amazingly accurate for spring. 

[NEG NAO]

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

28 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Don’t worry, we signed my son up for baseball again. It will rain every weekend starting in April and lasting until June. This is the Ball model and is amazingly accurate for spring. 

I did hint, after a very warm March and April, that May could be a cooler to average temperaturewise and rainy month.

[NEG NAO]

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I did hint, after a very warm March and April, that May could be a cooler to average temperaturewise and rainy month.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I do have to agree with @NEG NAO's maps of late February. I think there is a small window of opportunity for cold (and maybe a snowstorm) in the final week of February, but this will be like threading the needle.

However, it is not going to last, as the MJO is heading towards phase 6 in the last days of February or the first days of March. That's the worst phase for cold and snow. Those hoping for a 3rd act 4/7/2003 snowstorm, I just don't see it in the cards this spring.

[greenmtnwx]

This winter is far from over. A ton of anomalously cold air in Canada and tendency for that air to intrude south periodically. It’s only less than mid February. I would be surprised if most places around the NYC metro that are sitting on between 25-30” of snow didn’t finish +40”.

[bluewave]

 

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Don’t worry, we signed my son up for baseball again. It will rain every weekend starting in April and lasting until June. This is the Ball model and is amazingly accurate for spring. 

Well said.  I believe that the soccer version of the Ball model calls for damp raw cold Saturdays for the first 7 weeks of the season, followed by precisely one top ten weather day, followed by 2 weeks of blazing Death Valley heat to end the season.

Fall season is the nearly the opposite, but we have time for that.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Don’t worry, we signed my son up for baseball again. It will rain every weekend starting in April and lasting until June. This is the Ball model and is amazingly accurate for spring. 

Or we’ll have foggy drizzly crap in the 40s on easterly winds. Misery but without the benefit of rain for the water table/reservoirs. 

[SACRUS]

 

35 / 18 - Today / tomorrow should be the coldest days of the next 10.  Overall dry (outside next Thu-Fri) as the storm misses 2/15.  Overall warmer above avg 2/14 - 2/20 with the first shot at 50+ between 2/17 - 2/18.   

2/12- 2/13 :  near to below avg
2/13 - 2/20 :  Moderation to  / above avg first 50+ possible for some  TueWed next week, Rain 2/19-20
2/21 :  Moderation back colder
2/22 - beyond : perhaps more activity to track with an overall colder close to the month - at this point it doesnt look significantly strong cold.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

14 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

This winter is far from over. A ton of anomalously cold air in Canada and tendency for that air to intrude south periodically. It’s only less than mid February. I would be surprised if most places around the NYC metro that are sitting on between 25-30” of snow didn’t finish +40”.

Historical snow seasons have ended early. 2009-10 in Baltimore or DC is a perfect example. Baltimore had 80 inches of snow at this point in 2010 following Snowmageddon, and it didn't really snow again after that. [In fact, it reached 90 during the first week of April.]

For NYC, that was 2010-11. It didn't stop snowing, but there was a huge drop off after January. Only 5.8 inches of snow fell after January (with only 4.2 inches after this point).

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1999)
NYC: 62 (2018)
LGA: 63 (2018)
JFK: 61 (2022)

Lows:

EWR: -1 (1979)
NYC: -2 (1914)
LGA: 4 (1979)
JFK: 4 (1979)

 

Historical:

 

1784: Ice floes were spotted in the Gulf of Mexico after passing out the Mississippi River in February 1784. Ice blocked the river in New Orleans, Louisiana. The ice in New Orleans is one of two times that this occurred during the Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899. The eruption of Laki in Iceland from June 8, 1783, through February 7, 1784, is the likely cause for the severe winter of 1783 - 1784.

1899 - Texas and the eastern plains experienced their coldest morning of modern record. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth TX, and to 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City MO. The temperature at Camp Clarke NE plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a record for the state. In the eastern U.S., Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston SC received a record four inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

1899: The bitter cold outbreak of February 1899 continued across the southern Plains, Texas, and the Deep South. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth, Texas, and 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City, Missouri. Nebraska’s temperature at Camp Clarke plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The all-time record low for Oklahoma City was set when the temperature fell to a frigid 17 degrees below zero, breaking the previous record low of 12 below zero, set on the previous day. Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston, SC, received a record four inches of snow. Snow was also reported in Fort Myers, Tampa, and Tallahassee in Florida. 

1958 - Snow blanketed northern Florida, with Tallahassee reporting a record 2.8 inches. A ship in the Gulf of Mexico, 25 miles south of Fort Morgan AL, reported zero visibility in heavy snow on the afternoon of the 12th. (12th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

 

1960 - A snowstorm in the Deep South produced more than a foot of snow in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm in the eastern U.S. produced high winds from North Carolina to Maine. A storm in the western U.S. produced up to thirty inches of snow in the Sierra Nevada Range of California. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A classic "nor'easter" formed off the Carolina coast and intensified as it moved up the Atlantic coast bringing heavy snow to the northeastern U.S. Totals ranged up to 26 inches at Camden NY and Chester MA. Arctic cold gripped the north central U.S. Duluth MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 32 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably mild weather prevailed across Alaska. Morning lows of 29 degrees at Anchorage and 31 degrees at Fairbanks were actually warmer than those in northern Florida. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Strong southerly winds ahead of an arctic cold front pushed temperatures into the 70s as far north as Iowa and Nebraska. Twenty-one cities in the central U.S., seven in Iowa, reported record high temperatures for the date. Lincoln NE reported a record high of 73 degrees, and the afternoon high of 59 degrees at Minneapolis MN smashed their previous record for the date by twelve degrees. Springfield IL reported a record forty-eight consecutive days with above normal temperatures. (The National Weather Summary)

2006 - An intense snow squall off of Lake Michigan cuts visibility to zero along a section of US 31. The resulting whiteout causes 96 cars to pile up. 25 were injured.

 

2017: There was an imminent failure of the auxiliary spillway on the Oroville Dam in California.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

Dep through the 11th

EWR: -9.2  (0.02)
NYC: -10 (0.08)
LGA: -9.8 (0.03)
JFK: -9.8 (0.01)

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Or we’ll have foggy drizzly crap in the 40s on easterly winds. Misery but without the benefit of rain for the water table/reservoirs. 

With colder than normal Atlantic waters it could be especially bad this year...pray for a west wind.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

2/12- 2/13 :  near to below avg
2/13 - 2/20 :  Moderation to  / above avg first 50+ possible for some  TueWed next week, Rain 2/19-20
2/21 :  Moderation back colder
2/22 - beyond : perhaps more activity to track with an overall colder close to the month - at this point it doesnt look significantly strong cold.

Those are exactly my thoughts for the rest of the month, though I'm not sure if it rains 2/19-20. It does turn warm to begin March (with us entering MJO Phase 6), and we should get our first 60+ during the first week of March.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Or we’ll have foggy drizzly crap in the 40s on easterly winds. Misery but without the benefit of rain for the water table/reservoirs. 

Even with the big warm up across North America the next few weeks, the Northeast is still only getting back closer to average.