bluewave Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12 minutes ago, Nibor said: All hail skynet. The Google Deep Mind has pulled ahead of the National Hurricane Center. https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/11/googles-new-weather-model-impressed-during-its-first-hurricane-season/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 39 temp dropping already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Mount Holy update, Must of been a major/ catastrophic failure of the radar down over 5 days now. EQUIPMENT... The Fort Dix radar (KDIX) remains out of service. Work remains ongoing with progress obtaining and installing replacement parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 We need a good drenching rain storm of 1”+. Looks like that’s coming after Feb. 18-20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: We need a good drenching rain storm of 1”+. Looks like that’s coming after Feb. 18-20 Yep a nice cutter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Looks like AI to me notice wheels not sitting on the ice properly 40 minutes ago, Dark Star said: We would love to see a video of you on this... For the atheists:https://imgur.com/a/L5eUust 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, TJW014 said: For the atheists:https://imgur.com/a/L5eUust Some drone footage too: https://imgur.com/a/DdlU4u6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 46 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Getting out of school early walking into the house, smelling soup on the stove, “the” TV tuned to the local news, with all the out-in-the-snow reports, news of cancellations, meteorologists in front of awesome maps, possibility of school closed the next day, etc.. and I wonder why still love the snow.. That April 1982 blizzard was the most extreme out of season blizzard with record cold that I have ever experienced. Probably near a record number of lightning flashes for any snowstorm. The extended Newark records back to 1843 show how impressive it was even ranked against the much colder 1800s climate. April Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 15.8 1915-04-04 0 - 15.8 1915-04-03 0 2 12.8 1982-04-07 0 - 12.8 1982-04-06 0 3 12.0 1924-04-02 0 4 9.5 1854-04-17 0 5 8.0 1850-04-06 0 - 8.0 1850-04-05 0 6 7.0 1916-04-09 0 7 6.0 1862-04-09 0 8 5.5 1896-04-08 0 - 5.5 1896-04-07 0 9 5.2 1938-04-07 0 10 5.0 2018-04-03 0 - 5.0 2018-04-02 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Minimum TemperatureClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1923 13 0 2 1982 16 0 3 1857 17 0 4 1856 20 0 5 1874 21 0 - 1868 21 0 - 1855 21 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1982 30 0 2 1938 32 0 - 1857 32 0 3 1898 33 0 - 1862 33 0 4 1919 34 0 - 1896 34 0 - 1874 34 0 - 1868 34 0 5 1943 35 0 - 1879 35 0 - 1875 35 0 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Dr. No says no again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 11 minutes ago, TriPol said: Dr. No says no again. Said yes at 0Z - will it change again with updated fresh data ? 0Z runs get the full load of data - interesting that the Canadian has been close to consistent with the phasing and more intense storm for a few days now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 54 minutes ago, ag3 said: We need a good drenching rain storm of 1”+. Looks like that’s coming after Feb. 18-20 I'll take the under on anything with alot of QPF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I'll take the under on anything with alot of QPF if you believe the GFS regarding the upcoming miss then you will have to believe this - 1 inch over the next 16 days total qpf - which will help little 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 50 minutes ago, TJW014 said: For the atheists:https://imgur.com/a/L5eUust Well played, looks like they deleted their comments LOL. Looks like fun! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/9/2026 at 11:36 AM, donsutherland1 said: Negativity bias is real. People often assume that their "crystal ball" is clearer at longer lead times when adverse outcomes (e.g., lack of snowfall) are involved. Psychologically, people tend to give greater weight to negative outcomes than positive ones. Those threats appear clearer or more certain, because they generate stronger cognitive or emotional reaction. In reality, the extended range forecasts showing a bleak outcome for snowfall are no more or less likely to verify than those that show a lot of snowfall at similar ranges. Guidance beyond 10 days has a sharp falloff in skill. Having said that, the frequency of days with significant (6" or above) snowfall declines in New York City, especially after mid-March. Moreover, just over one-in-four years (26.8%) saw no measurable snowfall during February 15-28 but only 3.1% of years (1878, 1925, 2002, 2012, 2020) saw no measurable snowfall from February 15 to the end of snow season. At the current lead time, it is premature to assume that Winter 2025-2026 has seen its last measurable snowfall. Fascinating that there is that gap from 3/23-3/31 for >6" storms. Presumably it's not "real" i.e., there's not enough statistical power in the data (when n's are 1 out of 156 years) to conclude that late March would be less likely than early April to have 6" snowfalls, plus it simply fails the common sense test, since late March is colder than early April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Icon south again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 17 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Fascinating that there is that gap from 3/23-3/31 for >6" storms. Presumably it's not "real" i.e., there's not enough statistical power in the data (when n's are 1 out of 156 years) to conclude that late March would be less likely than early April to have 6" snowfalls, plus it simply fails the common sense test, since late March is colder than early April. I agree. I think it's a statistical artifact, but can't rule out other factors being involved e.g., an increase in baroclinicity in early April that allows for occasional big storms even as the weather is warming. Interestingly enough, one finds a similar dearth of 6" or above daily snowfalls during March 23-31 in Newark where records go back even farther to 1843. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Upton AFD says high amount of uncertainty for next potential storm AFD from KOKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 AIGFS locked in on south hasn’t wavered in days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12 minutes ago, nycsnow said: AIGFS locked in on south hasn’t wavered in days. neither has its cousin the GFS - Canadian has stayed with the more amped north solution - Euro has displayed both - thats why Upton has maintained a high amount of uncertainty which it should 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Regarding the dearth of heavy snowfalls in late March, Caswell's weather diary extends the period back a few more years (to spring 1832) and also samples a different location (Providence) to 1860, it's the same story other than a record of 7.5" on March 24, 1840, all very low record values otherwise in late March, and an extra major snowfall in early April is uncovered, 18.0" fell on Apr 13-14, 1841. From his comments this was also a very severe windstorm (nor'easter of course). Toronto's record snowfalls show a less anomalous dropoff when comparing late March and early April, for the period 1843 to present, there are a few rather large falls in the late March interval but some daily records are below the run of those encountered in early April, so a bit of the same signal applies there too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 42 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Regarding the dearth of heavy snowfalls in late March, Caswell's weather diary extends the period back a few more years (to spring 1832) and also samples a different location (Providence) to 1860, it's the same story other than a record of 7.5" on March 24, 1840, all very low record values otherwise in late March, and an extra major snowfall in early April is uncovered, 18.0" fell on Apr 13-14, 1841. From his comments this was also a very severe windstorm (nor'easter of course). Toronto's record snowfalls show a less anomalous dropoff when comparing late March and early April, for the period 1843 to present, there are a few rather large falls in the late March interval but some daily records are below the run of those encountered in early April, so a bit of the same signal applies there too. The April 1841 snowstorm was a really big one from parts of the Mid-Atlantic region into New England. Philadelphia received at least 8”. NYC picked up a foot. Some parts of New England saw 20”. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I HAVE SEEN ENOUGH. I AM DECLARING THIS WINTER OVER mid 50s in my parts next week..brief cold spell last week in February and all systems go for a much needed and much deserved warm March LFG! 1 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 9 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: I HAVE SEEN ENOUGH. I AM DECLARING THIS WINTER OVER mid 50s in my parts next week..brief cold spell last week in February and all systems go for a much needed and much deserved warm March LFG! No one cares 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 AI euro eps further north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Euro eps also north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 25 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: I HAVE SEEN ENOUGH. I AM DECLARING THIS WINTER OVER mid 50s in my parts next week..brief cold spell last week in February and all systems go for a much needed and much deserved warm March LFG! Enjoy your time in Richmond. We will all miss you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro eps also north 0Z runs should be interesting - that northern energy out in the Pacific should begin to get more fully sampled each run.........we hope - closing of weather offices across the country have reduced the number of ballons launched though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 hours ago, Dark Star said: While anything can happen in March, you can get a good read in general of what the rest of winter will be like by around the 2nd week in February. It seems obvious that the winter is coming to an end faster than anyone wants to admit. The best chance for snow and cold is the next 2 weeks. Once we get to March, I don't see any sustained BN until at least May. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: AI euro eps further north Warm no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, PhiEaglesfan712 said: It seems obvious that the winter is coming to an end faster than anyone wants to admit. The best chance for snow and cold is the next 2 weeks. Once we get to March, I don't see any sustained BN until at least May. You have been saying this since November . Eventually winter will end but not yet. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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