February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The way some people classify March is almost comical. In many parts of the forum average temperatures in early March are still below freezing. To call it a spring month, even though I know it's part of Met Spring, is misleading unless you're referencing late March in the southern portions of the forum. Of course it can snow in April in any part of the forum. 

The warming during March has prevented several stations like EWR, NYC, and LGA from having another 10”+ snowstorm since 1993. 
 

March Maximum 3-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1843-05-01 to 2026-02-08
	19.0	1888-03-12 through 1888-03-14	0
	18.3	1956-03-17 through 1956-03-19	0
	18.2	1956-03-18 through 1956-03-20	0
	14.8	1958-03-20 through 1958-03-22	0
	14.8	1958-03-19 through 1958-03-21	0
	13.9	1960-03-03 through 1960-03-05	0
	13.9	1960-03-02 through 1960-03-04	0
	12.7	1993-03-13 through 1993-03-15	0
	12.7	1993-03-12 through 1993-03-14	0
	12.7	1956-03-19 through 1956-03-21	0
	12.5	1960-03-01 through 1960-03-03	0
	12.1	1941-03-08 through 1941-03-10	0
	12.1	1941-03-07 through 1941-03-09	0
	12.0	1941-03-06 through 1941-03-08	0
	12.0	1917-03-02 through 1917-03-04	0
	12.0	1852-03-17 through 1852-03-19	0
	12.0	1852-03-16 through 1852-03-18	0
	12.0	1852-03-15 through 1852-03-17	0
	11.9	1993-03-11 through 1993-03-13	0
	11.5	1896-03-15 through 1896-03-17	0
	11.5	1896-03-14 through 1896-03-16	0
	11.2	1956-03-16 through 1956-03-18	0
	11.0	1867-03-17 through 1867-03-19	0
	11.0	1867-03-16 through 1867-03-18	0
	11.0	1867-03-15 through 1867-03-17	0
	10.5	1861-03-19 through 1861-03-21	0
	10.5	1851-03-07 through 1851-03-09	0
	10.5	1851-03-06 through 1851-03-08	0
	10.1	1917-03-03 through 1917-03-05	0
	9.5	1958-03-18 through 1958-03-20	0

[MJO812]

Nice euro run for next week

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, MarcmmKU said:

Got to hope the cold returns late February.

Enjoy the cold while it last because it will pretty much be done when February is over. March will start out warm, with at least one 60+ degree day in the first week of the month.

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Enjoy the cold while it last because it will pretty much be done when February is over. March will start out warm, with at least one 60+ degree day in the first week of the month.

You are still on the warm train? You have been warm the whole winter.

[SACRUS]

 

Just touched 33 here

 

 

[psv88]

31 here today. Avalanches of snow sliding off the solar panels onto the front walk, solar production surging with the cold temps and snow on the ground

[MJO812]

Euro and EPS got cooler in the long range 

[SACRUS]

 

12z again with robust QPF 2/15-2/16 period 

 

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and EPS got cooler in the long range 

continuing the winter long trend of model guidance getting cooler as we approach the event.........

[The 4 Seasons]

Snowfall totals for Feb 6-7th

[TheClimateChanger]

Weathergami for NYC on Saturday. First 27/6 combo on record.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You are still on the warm train? You have been warm the whole winter.

Not on the short term, but definitely on the long term. February is still going to end up below average, but I expect things to be closer to average (and probably on the warm side) in March, and well above average in April.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Not on the short term, but definitely on the long term. February is still going to end up below average, but I expect things to be closer to average (and probably on the warm side) in March, and well above average in April.

any evidence ?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

any evidence ?

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Not on the short term, but definitely on the long term. February is still going to end up below average, but I expect things to be closer to average (and probably on the warm side) in March, and well above average in April.

with well below normal Atlantic waters?    Good luck with that especially with any east flow off the water in March/April

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Blocking in Greenland in March/April gives us damp/cool/cold weather.   

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That's on the table of possibilities but also there has been mention of this being an active back door cold front season which could lower temperatures in the northern mid atlantic and northeast - so it could be milder than average south of the Mason Dixon Line but much cooler north of it- thats also on the table

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Blocking in Greenland in March/April gives us damp/cool/cold weather.   

That's more May/June, but definitely not March. Blocking in Greenland is warm East/cold West in March (see 2012) and most of April.

[donsutherland1]

20 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Weathergami for NYC on Saturday. First 27/6 combo on record.

 

And here are the most common high-low combinations for New York City:

[wthrmn654]

Only got to balmy 30 today nice

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

with well below normal Atlantic waters?    Good luck with that especially with any east flow off the water in March/April

Ocean temps are the coldest in years.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That's more May/June, but definitely not March. Blocking in Greenland is warm East/cold West in March (see 2012) and most of April.

This is wrong 

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Source: Facebook meteorologist.

https://www.facebook.com/MikeCollierWx/posts/a-few-days-ago-i-mentioned-the-potential-for-a-colder-pattern-by-mid-february-ti/1421647855979147/

Does anyone know his track record?

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Source: Facebook meteorologist.

https://www.facebook.com/MikeCollierWx/posts/a-few-days-ago-i-mentioned-the-potential-for-a-colder-pattern-by-mid-february-ti/1421647855979147/

Does anyone know his track record?

Probably similar to just about everyone else - right most of the time but busts sometimes - Collier holds a Bachelor's degree in Meteorology and a Bachelor of Science in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and The University of Tulsa..

[Lucy Pull]

29 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That's more May/June, but definitely not March. Blocking in Greenland is warm East/cold West in March (see 2012) and most of April.

March 2012 for reference 

[Lucy Pull]

When I think of blocking in March I think of 2013. Obviously results will vary based off PNA. 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

March 2012 for reference 

there's no greenland bock there-it's way east-scandinavian block

[psv88]

I can guarantee you this will be a miserable spring. The cold ocean is enough, especially out here. Long island wont hit 80 until June unless we get a heat blast from the W/NW. Over the top heat wont even do it this year. 

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

March 2012 for reference 

March 2012 was defined by a lack of Greenland blocking. The NAO was positive on 27 of the 31 days and never strongly negative. 

[kat5hurricane]

7 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

After all this we are going to put a near goose egg in the snowfall books for February? Is this really unfolding in front of us?

There's like three weeks left in February. Save a post like this for Feb 20th or later at least.