February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[MANDA]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

January 24-February 8, 2026 is on track to record a 16-day mean temperature below 20°. The last time that happened was outside the life span of many AmWx members: January 11-26, 1982.

Don, what would be the one before 1982?  Just wondering.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

With the lone exception of the end of January storm, since November, it has, by and large, been a dry winter. We are still in drought conditions and really have been since the fall of 2024…..

 

 

 

 

The higher ratios helped us out this winter with our snows since we have been continuing with this drier pattern since the fall of 2024. 
 

 

[donsutherland1]

23 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Don, what would be the one before 1982?  Just wondering.

Here are the 16-day stretches with mean temperatures below 20° beginning with Winter 1975-76. I haven't added 2025-26, because the value isn't final, but it will come in between 19.7° and 19.9°.

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here are the 16-day stretches with mean temperatures below 20° beginning with Winter 1975-76. I haven't added 2025-26, because the value isn't final, but it will come in between 19.7° and 19.9°.

Thanks.  I knew January 77 had to be on the list.  Late 70’s into early 80’s had some solid cold.  Hard to believe it took from 82 until now to add to the list.

[Big Jims Videos]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Common theme all winter

Wait til backdoor season. 

[495weatherguy]

14 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Wait til backdoor season. 

I pray that you are wrong

 

But I Suspect you are right

[steve392]

16 degrees in my back porch and frozen pipes on second floor bathroom.  Might be ripping open a wall tonight. 

[Rjay]

14 minutes ago, steve392 said:

16 degrees in my back porch and frozen pipes on second floor bathroom.  Might be ripping open a wall tonight. 

Frozen main line even with the water dripping last night.  Been a fun day.  Apparently I've heard there's 1000s like us out there.

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Wait til backdoor season. 

I love it

[steve392]

41 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Frozen main line even with the water dripping last night.  Been a fun day.  Apparently I've heard there's 1000s like us out there.

Thankfully our main isn't a problem.  

[TJW014]

Rock solid. 13" thick off Toms River Yacht club.

Walked across to Ocean Gate for pizza.

The urge to drive on is rising... If only I didn't have a 4900 lb SUV 

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here are the 16-day stretches with mean temperatures below 20° beginning with Winter 1975-76. I haven't added 2025-26, because the value isn't final, but it will come in between 19.7° and 19.9°.

Thanks.  My memory of the 1982 winter was all about the April blizzard.  I didn't realize that winter featured a rare cold snap as well.

[wishcast_hater]

Some photos from this morning. 






 

Riverbank State Park?


.

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Riverbank State Park?


.

Near there. Hudson River Greenway near 158th Street.

[donsutherland1]

The coldest day of Winter 2025-2026 is now going into the books. Tomorrow will start very cold, but the afternoon will be less harsh as readings climb into the middle and upper 20s. The temperature will reach or exceed freezing on Tuesday.

The persistent and often severely cold pattern is poised to break near February 10th. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely through at least mid-February, even as milder readings return. After mid-month, highs could begin to reach the lower 40s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around January 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +0.05 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.397 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.0° (4.9° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.8°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

 

[mriceyman]

The gfs consistency never ceases to amaze me



.

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, steve392 said:

Thankfully our main isn't a problem.  

I have water!

[psv88]

Flying to Florida with the family next Sunday evening. I’m sure we’ll get crushed and trip ruined 

[IrishRob17]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I have water!

Nice. Now go flush. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I have water!

Presumably only coming out of the faucets!  Great to hear.  Worst feeling in the world once the pipes freeze, just hoping that it ends well.

[NEG NAO]

[steve392]

21 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I have water!

It must be a sign!  I got hot water flowing minutes ago.  Switched sides of sink with space heater. Hoping to get cold going. 

[NEG NAO]

19 minutes ago, steve392 said:

It must be a sign!  I got hot water flowing minutes ago.  Switched sides of sink with space heater. Hoping to get cold going. 

Hair Dryer works too

[steve392]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Hair Dryer works too

Much success (borat voice)!  Both pipes clear.  Although I forgot I had cold water turned up high and it splattered everywhere lol whooops

[NEG NAO]

Just now, steve392 said:

Much success (borat voice)!  Both pipes clear.  Although I forgot I had cold water turned up high and it splattered everywhere lol whooops

congrats hopefully pipes didn't split anywhere

[sussexcountyobs]

Tip for no frozen pipes. At least faucets. Leave cabinets underneath cracked open to let heat in. Let the faucet drip. It doesn't have to be much. 1 drip every 3-4 seconds.

 

[steve392]

55 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

congrats hopefully pipes didn't split anywhere

So far so good

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Hair Dryer works too

haven't needed one since 1982....

[nycwinter]

i am surprised at the lack of or very few broken water mains during this cold stretch.

[SACRUS]

Todays; 

NYC: 18
EWR: 19