February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[jm1220]

Down to 10. 

[bluewave]

This has been a top 30 coldest 10 day period on Long Island and the coldest since 2017.

Minimum 10-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	8.3	1979-02-09 through 1979-02-18	0
2	8.6	1979-02-10 through 1979-02-19	0
3	9.9	1979-02-11 through 1979-02-20	0
4	10.0	1979-02-08 through 1979-02-17	0
5	11.3	1979-02-07 through 1979-02-16	0
6	11.9	1979-02-06 through 1979-02-15	0
7	12.5	1968-01-04 through 1968-01-13	0
8	12.7	1979-02-12 through 1979-02-21	0
9	12.8	1979-02-05 through 1979-02-14	0
10	13.0	1968-01-02 through 1968-01-11	0
11	13.2	1968-01-03 through 1968-01-12	0
12	13.5	1968-01-05 through 1968-01-14	0
13	14.0	1968-01-01 through 1968-01-10	0
14	15.0	1979-02-04 through 1979-02-13	0
15	15.2	1968-01-06 through 1968-01-15	0
16	15.5	1967-12-31 through 1968-01-09	0
17	15.6	2017-12-29 through 2018-01-07	0
-	15.6	1981-01-04 through 1981-01-13	0
18	15.7	1968-01-07 through 1968-01-16	0
19	16.0	2017-12-28 through 2018-01-06	0
-	16.0	1981-01-03 through 1981-01-12	0
-	16.0	1968-01-08 through 1968-01-17	0
20	16.2	1965-01-11 through 1965-01-20	0
21	16.3	1979-02-13 through 1979-02-22	0
22	16.4	1982-01-10 through 1982-01-19	0
23	16.4	1981-01-05 through 1981-01-14	0
24	16.5	1977-01-12 through 1977-01-21	0
25	16.5	1977-01-15 through 1977-01-24	0
26	16.6	2017-12-30 through 2018-01-08	0
-	16.6	1977-01-13 through 1977-01-22	0
-	16.6	1977-01-11 through 1977-01-20	0
27	16.8	2026-01-24 through 2026-02-02	0

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been a top 30 coldest 10 day period on Long Island and the coldest since 2017.

Minimum 10-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	8.3	1979-02-09 through 1979-02-18	0
2	8.6	1979-02-10 through 1979-02-19	0
3	9.9	1979-02-11 through 1979-02-20	0
4	10.0	1979-02-08 through 1979-02-17	0
5	11.3	1979-02-07 through 1979-02-16	0
6	11.9	1979-02-06 through 1979-02-15	0
7	12.5	1968-01-04 through 1968-01-13	0
8	12.7	1979-02-12 through 1979-02-21	0
9	12.8	1979-02-05 through 1979-02-14	0
10	13.0	1968-01-02 through 1968-01-11	0
11	13.2	1968-01-03 through 1968-01-12	0
12	13.5	1968-01-05 through 1968-01-14	0
13	14.0	1968-01-01 through 1968-01-10	0
14	15.0	1979-02-04 through 1979-02-13	0
15	15.2	1968-01-06 through 1968-01-15	0
16	15.5	1967-12-31 through 1968-01-09	0
17	15.6	2017-12-29 through 2018-01-07	0
-	15.6	1981-01-04 through 1981-01-13	0
18	15.7	1968-01-07 through 1968-01-16	0
19	16.0	2017-12-28 through 2018-01-06	0
-	16.0	1981-01-03 through 1981-01-12	0
-	16.0	1968-01-08 through 1968-01-17	0
20	16.2	1965-01-11 through 1965-01-20	0
21	16.3	1979-02-13 through 1979-02-22	0
22	16.4	1982-01-10 through 1982-01-19	0
23	16.4	1981-01-05 through 1981-01-14	0
24	16.5	1977-01-12 through 1977-01-21	0
25	16.5	1977-01-15 through 1977-01-24	0
26	16.6	2017-12-30 through 2018-01-08	0
-	16.6	1977-01-13 through 1977-01-22	0
-	16.6	1977-01-11 through 1977-01-20	0
27	16.8	2026-01-24 through 2026-02-02	0

Always impressive seeing the Great South Bay almost totally frozen over. The Long Beach Super Bowl splash has been postponed to March. I don’t remember that ever happening before. We did it in 2011 when there was still a lot of snow around from the 1/27 storm. 

[Snowlover11]

Low of 8F

[SnoSki14]

Looks a lot more active next week and noticing confluence playing a role and keeping storms from cutting. 

So maybe a lot of redevelopers and SWFEs. 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Always impressive seeing the Great South Bay almost totally frozen over. The Long Beach Super Bowl splash has been postponed to March. I don’t remember that ever happening before. We did it in 2011 when there was still a lot of snow around from the 1/27 storm. 

Yeah, this has been the first time since 17-18 and 10-11 that Islip averaged under 35.0° for both December and January. 
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-2026	34.3	29.6	32.0
2024-2025	36.5	30.4	33.5
2023-2024	42.2	35.1	38.7
2022-2023	36.8	41.1	39.0
2021-2022	41.7	28.8	35.3
2020-2021	37.2	32.9	35.1
2019-2020	36.8	37.3	37.1
2018-2019	38.1	31.1	34.6
2017-2018	33.8	30.1	32.0
2016-2017	36.6	36.2	36.4
2015-2016	48.4	33.3	40.8
2014-2015	39.6	28.7	34.2
2013-2014	37.1	27.7	32.4
2012-2013	40.5	33.1	36.8
2011-2012	40.5	36.2	38.4
2010-2011	31.5	27.1	29.3
2009-2010	34.5	30.4	32.5
2008-2009	36.7	26.5	31.6
2007-2008	35.1	33.8	34.5
2006-2007	41.1	35.9	38.5
2005-2006	33.5	37.5	35.5
2004-2005	35.2	28.5	31.9
2003-2004	36.6	23.5	30.1
2002-2003	33.5	26.5	30.0
2001-2002	41.2	37.7	39.5
2000-2001	29.6	29.5	29.6
1999-2000	38.3	29.5	33.9
1998-1999	40.0	33.7	36.9
1997-1998	37.7	39.1	38.4
1996-1997	39.0	30.2	34.6
1995-1996	31.4	30.4	30.9
1994-1995	39.7	38.0	38.9
1993-1994	35.2	25.6	30.4
1992-1993	36.1	34.6	35.4
1991-1992	37.3	32.5	34.9
1990-1991	39.9	32.1	36.0
1989-1990	24.8	37.9	31.4
1988-1989	33.4	34.6	34.0
1987-1988	36.8	26.6	31.7
1986-1987	36.4	30.5	33.5
1985-1986	32.1	31.7	31.9
1984-1985	41.2	26.2	33.7
1983-1984	33.6	27.3	30.5
1982-1983	40.1	32.7	36.4
1981-1982	36.1	25.8	31.0
1980-1981	33.5	25.2	29.4
1979-1980	39.1	32.3	35.7
1978-1979	36.9	31.7	34.3
1977-1978	32.8	25.5	29.2
1976-1977	28.9	20.8	24.9
1975-1976	35.2	26.5	30.9
1974-1975	36.9	35.0	36.0
1973-1974	38.4	32.8	35.6
1972-1973	39.6	32.7	36.2
1971-1972	40.1	33.7	36.9
1970-1971	34.0	27.1	30.6
1969-1970	33.4	23.3	28.4
1968-1969	29.3	30.1	29.7
1967-1968	33.1	23.8	28.5
1966-1967	33.0	33.8	33.4
1965-1966	36.0	29.5	32.8
1964-1965	35.5	25.5	30.5
1963-1964	28.1	32.3	30.2

[doncat]

Winds finally dropped off here after 3 am with low dropping to 14°. Every day but one, since 1/19 has had a low below 20°.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this has been the first time since 17-18 and 10-11 that Islip averaged under 35.0° for both December and January. 
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-2026	34.3	29.6	32.0
2024-2025	36.5	30.4	33.5
2023-2024	42.2	35.1	38.7
2022-2023	36.8	41.1	39.0
2021-2022	41.7	28.8	35.3
2020-2021	37.2	32.9	35.1
2019-2020	36.8	37.3	37.1
2018-2019	38.1	31.1	34.6
2017-2018	33.8	30.1	32.0
2016-2017	36.6	36.2	36.4
2015-2016	48.4	33.3	40.8
2014-2015	39.6	28.7	34.2
2013-2014	37.1	27.7	32.4
2012-2013	40.5	33.1	36.8
2011-2012	40.5	36.2	38.4
2010-2011	31.5	27.1	29.3
2009-2010	34.5	30.4	32.5
2008-2009	36.7	26.5	31.6
2007-2008	35.1	33.8	34.5
2006-2007	41.1	35.9	38.5
2005-2006	33.5	37.5	35.5
2004-2005	35.2	28.5	31.9
2003-2004	36.6	23.5	30.1
2002-2003	33.5	26.5	30.0
2001-2002	41.2	37.7	39.5
2000-2001	29.6	29.5	29.6
1999-2000	38.3	29.5	33.9
1998-1999	40.0	33.7	36.9
1997-1998	37.7	39.1	38.4
1996-1997	39.0	30.2	34.6
1995-1996	31.4	30.4	30.9
1994-1995	39.7	38.0	38.9
1993-1994	35.2	25.6	30.4
1992-1993	36.1	34.6	35.4
1991-1992	37.3	32.5	34.9
1990-1991	39.9	32.1	36.0
1989-1990	24.8	37.9	31.4
1988-1989	33.4	34.6	34.0
1987-1988	36.8	26.6	31.7
1986-1987	36.4	30.5	33.5
1985-1986	32.1	31.7	31.9
1984-1985	41.2	26.2	33.7
1983-1984	33.6	27.3	30.5
1982-1983	40.1	32.7	36.4
1981-1982	36.1	25.8	31.0
1980-1981	33.5	25.2	29.4
1979-1980	39.1	32.3	35.7
1978-1979	36.9	31.7	34.3
1977-1978	32.8	25.5	29.2
1976-1977	28.9	20.8	24.9
1975-1976	35.2	26.5	30.9
1974-1975	36.9	35.0	36.0
1973-1974	38.4	32.8	35.6
1972-1973	39.6	32.7	36.2
1971-1972	40.1	33.7	36.9
1970-1971	34.0	27.1	30.6
1969-1970	33.4	23.3	28.4
1968-1969	29.3	30.1	29.7
1967-1968	33.1	23.8	28.5
1966-1967	33.0	33.8	33.4
1965-1966	36.0	29.5	32.8
1964-1965	35.5	25.5	30.5
1963-1964	28.1	32.3	30.2

Ugh, sobering progression 

[EastonSN+]

If the season ended today, this decades CPK average snowfall would be 16.78

This is ahead of the first 6 years of the 70s at 15.85.

This decade is also ahead with 1 above average snowfall season (0 for the first 6 years of the 70s).

The 30 year 70 through 99 average was 21.91. Still behind that by 5.12.

[uofmiami]

9 & 6 this morning for my stations. 

[SACRUS]

 

21 / 11 off a low of 8. cloudy the dusting fizzled to maybe some stray flurries and saturday is looking to follow the same drier evolution.   Cold drops in Saturday, perhaps as cold or the coldest of the season yet 2/7 - 2/9.  Moderation between 2/10 - 2/16 with some rain  / mix pending on the 2/11-2/13 storm system.  Beyond there cold may out do moderation/ warmth overall into the final 1/3 of the month.

 

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Ugh, sobering progression 

At least we were able to avoid the immediate near to over 50°warm up following our 5”+ events in recent years for the best snowfall retention since 2021.

Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026-01-25	29	12	1.13	12.9	T
2026-01-26	26	17	0.03	0.3	9
2026-01-27	21	14	0.00	0.0	8
2026-01-28	23	10	0.00	0.0	8
2026-01-29	22	10	0.00	0.0	8
2026-01-30	17	8	0.00	0.0	8
2026-01-31	21	0	0.00	0.0	8
2026-02-01	20	12	T	T	8
2026-02-02	32	15	0.00	0.0	8

 

Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-14	34	22	0.39	5.8	2
2025-12-15	29	19	0.00	0.0	6
2025-12-16	34	25	0.00	0.0	4
2025-12-17	46	24	0.00	0.0	2
2025-12-18	51	27	T	0.0	T
2025-12-19	59	34	0.68	0.0	0
2025-12-20	42	28	0.00	0.0	0
2025-12-21	50	30	0.00	0.0	0

 

Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-12-26	29	21	0.70	5.6	0
2025-12-27	31	22	0.13	1.0	5
2025-12-28	42	16	0.04	0.0	4
2025-12-29	49	32	0.22	0.0	1
2025-12-30	34	28	0.00	0.0	0
2025-12-31	36	28	T	0.1	0

 

Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-02-08	36	23	0.52	4.0	0
2025-02-09	36	27	0.17	T	4
2025-02-10	36	23	0.00	0.0	2
2025-02-11	33	19	0.16	1.4	1
2025-02-12	36	32	0.14	0.5	3
2025-02-13	45	35	0.25	0.0	1
2025-02-14	38	28	0.00	0.0	0
2025-02-15	37	24	0.39	0.5	0
2025-02-16	53	37	1.41	0.0	0

 

Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2022-01-28	35	26	0.09	1.2	0
2022-01-29	29	14	1.24	23.5	10
2022-01-30	24	6	0.00	0.0	24
2022-01-31	32	6	0.00	0.0	22
2022-02-01	36	11	0.00	0.0	20
2022-02-02	46	26	0.00	0.0	17
2022-02-03	49	37	0.11	0.0	12
2022-02-04	51	27	0.69	0.2	5
2022-02-05	29	19	T	T	1
2022-02-06	29	14	0.00	0.0	0

 

Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2021-02-01	34	27	0.69	10.3	3
2021-02-02	36	30	0.07	0.3	11
2021-02-03	35	28	0.03	0.4	10
2021-02-04	40	25	0.00	0.0	10
2021-02-05	44	27	0.03	0.0	9
2021-02-06	43	27	0.00	0.0	7
2021-02-07	37	26	0.29	6.4	5
2021-02-08	29	13	0.00	0.0	11
2021-02-09	37	13	0.01	0.0	9
2021-02-10	33	21	T	T	8
2021-02-11	31	25	0.17	1.8	10
2021-02-12	29	18	0.00	0.0	9
2021-02-13	30	25	T	T	9
2021-02-14	36	29	T	T	8
2021-02-15	35	32	0.01	T	7

 

Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2020-12-16	33	24	0.36	5.7	0
2020-12-17	35	24	0.64	1.7	3
2020-12-18	30	23	0.00	0.0	5
2020-12-19	34	19	0.00	0.0	4
2020-12-20	35	24	0.06	0.1	3
2020-12-21	44	33	0.00	0.0	3
2020-12-22	45	35	T	0.0	2
2020-12-23	45	27	0.00	0.0	1
2020-12-24	59	41	0.02	0.0	T
2020-12-25	59	32	1.05	0.0	0

 

[SACRUS]

 

Don't know if any or all of this is touching the ground in EPA

 

[psv88]

9.7 this morning. 

[IrishRob17]

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

1.6° currently, maybe I can sneak in another below zero morning. 

-1° for the low. 

[psv88]

Huntington Bay iced in. Impressive stuff 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 64 (1991)
NYC: 64 (1991)
LGA: 64 (1991)
JFK: 62 (1991)


Lows:

EWR: 1 (1955)
NYC: 0 (1955)
LGA: 1 (1955)
JFK: 6 (1961)

 

Historical: 

1803: Winston Salem, North Carolina: The region is hit by 20 inches of snow. (Ref. WxDoctor)

1844: Boston Harbor was so thick with ice on this date that a channel had to be cut through the ice for the "Britannia" ship to leave with 30,000 letters for England.

1917 - Downtown Miami, FL, reported an all-time record low of 27 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1917: Locations that reported daily record lows included: Atlanta, GA: 2°, Roanoke, VA: 2°, Lynchburg, VA: 3°, Richmond, VA: 6°, Raleigh, NC: 9°, Norfolk, VA: 9°, Montgomery, AL: 10°, Wilmington, NC: 13°, Savannah, GA: 13°, Pensacola, FL: 17°, Mobile, AL: 19°, Tampa, FL: 26 °F. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1947 - The temperature at Tanacross, AK, plunged to a record 75 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

1947: Gulkana, AK set an all-time record low with -65°. McGrath and Fairbanks reported February record lows with -64 °F and -58 °F respectively. Locations that reported daily record lows included: King Salmon, AK: -32°, Homer, AK: -16°, Juneau, AK: -10 °F and Cold Bay, AK: -7°. The temperature dropped to -81° at Snag, Northwest Territories Canada, North America's lowest recorded official temperature, capping a week of intense cold in the Yukon.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
Coldest recorded Canadian temperature is -81° at Snag, Yukon Territory (Ref. Much Additional Information About This Extreme Record) (Bob Ryan's 2002 Almanac)

1952: South Florida on February 2nd & 3rd: South Florida: South Florida hit by the only tropical storm of record, known as the Groundhog Day Storm to hit the U.S. in February. Storm moves out of the Gulf of Mexico with 60 mph winds and two to four inches of rain. (Ref. WxDoctor)

1959: At 12:55 am Central Time, a plane took off from runway 17 at the Mason City, Iowa airport, carrying the lives of Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens, and J. P. "The Big Bopper" Richardson. At the time of departure, the weather was reported as light snow, a ceiling of 3,000 feet with sky obscured, visibility 6 miles, and winds from 20 to 30 mph. At around 9:35 am, Hubert Jerry Dwyer spotted the wreckage less than 6 miles northwest of the airport. The three musicians and the pilot died from this crash.

1961: On this date through the 5th, a large part of the Northeast and New England were reeling under their third great snowstorm of the winter. The Blizzard dumped 17.4 inches of snow on New York City, NY. Gale force winds blew the snow into 10 foot drifts that blocked city streets. Automobile travel was banned in New York City, NY for almost a week. Snowfall totals in other locations ranged from 10 to 24 inches in parts of Pennsylvania and 12 to 27 inches in parts of New Jersey. States of emergencies were declared. 73 people died as a result of the storm. Baltimore, MD set a record low with 4°. Ref. (NWS Ranking for Storms between 1956 and 2011) This is the 5th Worst Snowstorm (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
Snowstorm dumped 16 inches of snow on Frederick, MD (Bob Ryan's 2002 Almanac)
Cold & windy snow, hit like a blizzard with severe cold and gale force winds. Eight inches fell in Washington, DC and 2 to 13 inches across Virginia with as much as 36 inches in New York. There four fatalities in Virginia. (Ref. Virginia Weather History)

1963: High pressure across the Great Basin brought record heat to parts of the West. February's record maximum temperature in the United States was set as Montezuma, AZ soared to 105°. Los Angeles (LAX), CA set their February record high with 92 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1986: A 5-day ice storm of freezing drizzle and fog through the 5th caused ice to accumulate 5 to 8 inches thick across central North Dakota. Many people were left without power. The ice in Wisconsin felled millions of trees. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Wintry weather was confined to freezing drizzle and light snow in the northeastern U.S., and light rain and snow in the western U.S. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Arctic air continued to invade the central U.S. The temperature at Midland TX plunged from a record high of 80 degrees to 37 degrees in just three hours. Morning lows in the higher elevations of Wyoming were as cold as 38 degrees below zero. Heavy snow blanketed southwestern Colorado, with 16 inches reported at Steamboat Springs. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1989 - A winter storm brought heavy snow and high winds to the western U.S. Up to three feet of snow blanketed the Sierra Nevada of California, and buried parts of northeastern Washington State under three feet of snow in five days. High winds across Washington State reached 75 mph, with gusts to 105 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Severe cold gripped the north central U.S. The morning low of 29 degrees below zero at Casper WY was a record for the month of February. Wisdom MT hit 53 degrees below zero. Missoula MT reported a wind chill reading of 85 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather over the central Gulf coast states during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes in Alabama, including one which touched down north of Birmingham injuring fifteen people and causing nearly three million dollars damage. A tornado at Margaret injured eleven persons and caused a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1996: February second and third Annandale Weather Center recorded 9.3 inches of snow in two snows in 24 hrs. (Ref. Annandale Weather Records)
The temperature in Iowa plunged to 47° below zero, a record for the state Feb. 2 - 3 A continuing series of Alberta clippers followed by strong Nor'easters struck the Commonwealth. The storm on February 2-3 dropped one to two feet of snow from to Charlottesville, Fredericksburg and across the Northern Neck. To the north of the heavy snow band fell 6 to 10 inches of snow and to the south of the band was a significant ice storm. Some counties along the North Carolina border saw about half of its population lose power. The ice caused about a half million dollars in damage and caused widespread disruptions in the Hampton Roads area. (Ref. Virginia Weather History)

1997: Centralia, Washington State: Centralia sets the state record for consecutive days of precipitation at 55 between 10 November 1996 and 3 February 1997. (Ref. WxDoctor)

1999: It was a dangerous job for both the rescued and rescuer. The Northern Aurora (12 men on board) capsized in high seas/freezing spray in AK’s Resurrection Bay. The Coast Guard rescued 1. USGC report noted N winds to 58 mph, seas to 8 feet, heavy fog, and wind chills to -65 degrees. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

2006 Lubbock, TX recorded their first measurable rain, 0.03 inches, in 98 days, ending their longest period on record without measurable precipitation. The temperature plunged to record low of -56° at Point Lay, AK. Kodiak, AK reported a record low of -8°.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

[NorthShoreWx]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

1952: South Florida on February 2nd & 3rd: South Florida: South Florida hit by the only tropical storm of record, known as the Groundhog Day Storm

1952: South Florida on February 2nd & 3rd: South Florida: South Florida hit by the only tropical storm of record, known as the Groundhog Day Storm

1952: South Florida on February 2nd & 3rd: South Florida: South Florida hit by the only tropical storm of record, known as the Groundhog Day Storm

1952: South Florida on February 2nd & 3rd: South Florida: South Florida hit by the only tropical storm of record, known as the Groundhog Day Storm

1952: South Florida on February 2nd & 3rd: South Florida: South Florida hit by the only tropical storm of record, known as the Groundhog Day Storm

1952: South Florida on February 2nd & 3rd: South Florida: South Florida hit by the only tropical storm of record, known as the Groundhog Day Storm

 

 

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

 

[NorthShoreWx]

19 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Don't know if any or all of this is touching the ground in EPA

 

Mping says yes:

https://mping.ou.edu/display/

 

[Prue11]

Low of 8.4 up to 27.7 now 

[eduggs]

As we get nearer, the long-range appears to be adjusting a little colder in the modeling, as it has most of the winter. The AI models seem to be leading the way. We'll see where we are in about a week... maybe we can stay on the cold side of the boundary. Total wild card with the PNA ridge breaking down. Historically that would signal springlike weather but the tenor of this winter with the neg NAO and Atlantic pattern could mitigate that. Fingers crossed.

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, eduggs said:

As we get nearer, the long-range appears to be adjusting a little colder in the modeling, as it has most of the winter. The AI models seem to be leading the way. We'll see where we are in about a week... maybe we can stay on the cold side of the boundary. Total wild card with the PNA ridge breaking down. Historically that would signal springlike weather but the tenor of this winter with the neg NAO and Atlantic pattern could mitigate that. Fingers crossed.

With the strat warming event forecasted, this has the feel of a “she’s not gonna let us out” winter. Hopefully March can bring us high end storm opportunities. 

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

With the strat warming event forecasted, this has the feel of a “she’s not gonna let us out” winter. Hopefully March can bring us high end storm opportunities. 

I think people forget how warm March has gotten around here. It almost never snows outside the mountains in March these days. And on the uncommon occasions it does, it melts in a day or two. I think we need winter to deliver in February, preferably the first half. Technically it can snow right into April, but climate norms and sun angle get hostile to the winter vibe really fast after mid-Feb. near the coast at 40 degrees north.

[jm1220]

20 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I think people forget how warm March has gotten around here. It almost never snows outside the mountains in March these days. And on the uncommon occasions it does, it melts in a day or two. I think we need winter to deliver in February, preferably the first half. Technically it can snow right into April, but climate norms and sun angle get hostile to the winter vibe really fast after mid-Feb. near the coast at 40 degrees north.

March 2018 was epic. Not calling for that again of course but I’ll take a heavy snow event in March to pad the stats even if it melts faster. 

[NorthShoreWx]

52 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Some northeast rainfall totals 2/3-5/1952 from the remnants of that tropical storm (rain or mostly rain everywhere):

EWR 0.45"

Central Park 0.64"

Bridgeport, CT 0.51"

Cutchogue, NY 1.37"

Edgarton, MA 0.34"

Plymouth, MA 0.82"

Boston, 1.22"

Peru, VT 0.78" (0.3" snowfall)

Pinkham Notch, NH 1.23" (4.5" snowfall)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

40 minutes ago, eduggs said:

As we get nearer, the long-range appears to be adjusting a little colder in the modeling, as it has most of the winter. The AI models seem to be leading the way. We'll see where we are in about a week... maybe we can stay on the cold side of the boundary. Total wild card with the PNA ridge breaking down. Historically that would signal springlike weather but the tenor of this winter with the neg NAO and Atlantic pattern could mitigate that. Fingers crossed.

Minus the EPS the 2/9-2/13 period has seen some tempering of the ridge over the Lakes/TN Valley area.  Beyond 2/16 its hard to know yet, some signs of a EPO ridge trying to poke back into AK on some of the ensembles again but the NAO looks gone, then again we've seen that attempt a few times too and its been wrong.

[eduggs]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

March 2018 was epic. Not calling for that again of course but I’ll take a heavy snow event in March to pad the stats even if it melts faster. 

I think the median 30-year March snowfall at NYC is about 1.5". The mean, which is skewed by a few snowier years, is about 4". Certainly areas outside NYC can do better. But March 2018 comes around once every 50 years. Sadly, March 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 are far more common.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Don't know if any or all of this is touching the ground in EPA

 

Not reaching the ground here

[NorthShoreWx]

39 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I think people forget how warm March has gotten around here. It almost never snows outside the mountains in March these days. And on the uncommon occasions it does, it melts in a day or two. I think we need winter to deliver in February, preferably the first half. Technically it can snow right into April, but climate norms and sun angle get hostile to the winter vibe really fast after mid-Feb. near the coast at 40 degrees north.

March snow has never been long lasting.  If snow is lasting on the ground through roughly mid-March, it is generally because it has built up over the winter.

2018 a wee bit of an exception.  Despite the snowfall, it wasn't cold. Here is my record:

 

YYYY	MM	DD	Low	High	Precip	Snowfall	Snow Depth
2018	3	1	38	62
2018	3	2	35	42	1.8	0.1
2018	3	3	35	46	1.23	0.0005
2018	3	4	33	44		0.0005
2018	3	5	32	39	0.0005	0.0005
2018	3	6	29	48		0.0005
2018	3	7	32	36	0.07	8.4
2018	3	8	30	46	1.21	0.7	7
2018	3	9	28	42		0.0005	5
2018	3	10	28	42			4
2018	3	11	28	47			2
2018	3	12	30	43		0.0005	1
2018	3	13	32	39	0.2	5.7	2
2018	3	14	29	44	0.6	0.3	3
2018	3	15	30	49		0.0005	2
2018	3	16	28	40			1
2018	3	17	26	47			T
2018	3	18	26	40			T
2018	3	19	25	44			T
2018	3	20	28	37		0.0005	T
2018	3	21	31	37	0.01	9.1	T
2018	3	22	31	49	1.44	4.5	13
2018	3	23	33	51			7
2018	3	24	33	49			4
2018	3	25	30	43		0.0005	1
2018	3	26	27	48			T
2018	3	27	26	45			T
2018	3	28	37	53			T
2018	3	29	44	52			T
2018	3	30	44	60	0.02
2018	3	31	39	60
2018	4	1	41	62	0.05
2018	4	2	29	42	0.4	6.1	6
2018	4	3	27	43	0.12		2
2018	4	4	40	55	0.23		T