JustinRP37 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 7 minutes ago, Santa Claus said: you think you could never appreciate a 105/83 heat dome and then you get an entire month of this miserable bullshit and it’s like, yeah it was equally unlivable outside but at least every surface wasn’t either salt or ice on top of things Naw the skiing has been absolutely incredible. Plus layers work well. Can’t exactly be naked when it is 105/83. A certain someone on this board might loc you up… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 8 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Naw the skiing has been absolutely incredible. Plus layers work well. Can’t exactly be naked when it is 105/83. A certain someone on this board might loc you up… well i’m glad you are making the most of it i am taking a lot of cold walks because i believe it’s good to discomfort yourself. and when the heat returns you will find me out there too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 Icon has rain next week 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Icon has rain next weekHas 6-12 inches of snow too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said: Naw the skiing has been absolutely incredible. Plus layers work well. Can’t exactly be naked when it is 105/83. A certain someone on this board might loc you up… I've been out xc skiing 3 days this week chasing daylight. It kinda sucks here with the crust, but it's better than not skiing. Temp is 11⁰ here now, but we still have the wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, psv88 said: I’m getting there. Cold and dry fucking sucks. Probably 4 weeks away from our first 60. 6 weeks from first 70. We aren’t far away Yep wasted cold without any storms to track is the worst. And this generally looks like a suppressed to hell pattern. Maybe we get lucky with a clipper or two to refresh the snowpack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 GFS with back to back storms out of the gulf at the end of the run, the first one looking like a repeat of this weekend. Would be nice if one of them turned the corner and made it all the way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 5 minutes ago, SI Mailman said: GFS with back to back storms out of the gulf at the end of the run, the first one looking like a repeat of this weekend. Would be nice if one of them turned the corner and made it all the way up. The northern stream flow has to relax and go more west to east and also the arctic air can't be all the way down to Georgia - these suppress the entire pattern - the models lately have been terrible because of a lack of data ( weather balloons etc out west ) BECAUSE OF CLOSED NWS OFFICES apparently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 hours ago, NEG NAO said: The northern stream flow has to relax and go more west to east and also the arctic air can't be all the way down to Georgia - these suppress the entire pattern - the models lately have been terrible because of a lack of data ( weather balloons etc out west ) BECAUSE OF CLOSED NWS OFFICES apparently. Yes don’t look good for us up here if gfs is correct, I’d change my outlook to this winter as a complete failure if this verifies Gfs has 60 inches of snow down south through end of the run…. 6 inches here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Unfortunately a lot of Mets are starting to see the suppressed pattern and it’s really within the next 2 weeks. Hopefully we capitalize on something, our best bet might be hoping a clipper blows up into a miller b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 7 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Yes don’t look good for us up here if gfs is correct, I’d change my outlook to this winter as a complete failure if this verifies Gfs has 60 inches of snow down south through end of the run…. 6 inches here lol apparently you didn't look at the 06 GFS - how in the world can you call this winter a "complete failure" ?????? regardless of what happens the rest of the way . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: apparently you didn't look at the 06 GFS - how in the world can you call this winter a "complete failure" ?????? regardless of what happens the rest of the way . 6z gfs looks better ya…. But it also gives parts of the s/e 3-4 feet of snow lmfao. Gfs will also change in 2 hours for 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 As cold and as wintry as it’s been remember Central Park still needs 12ish inches just to hit its average snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 5 minutes ago, nycsnow said: 6z gfs looks better ya…. But it also gives parts of the s/e 3-4 feet of snow lmfao. Gfs will also change in 2 hours for 12z as you get deeper into February those large southern snowstorms become less likely everyday - NYC is now at just over 21 inches 2/3rd through MET winter just need an average February snowfall total a couple inches after that to reach normal - thats all that one can reasonably expect - anything more is icing on the cake........ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, nycsnow said: As cold and as wintry as it’s been remember Central Park still needs 12ish inches just to hit its average snowfall The normal is not 33 inches its a few inches less 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: as you get deeper into February those large southern snowstorms become less likely everyday - NYC is now at just over 21 inches 2/3rd through MET winter just need an average February snowfall total a couple inches after that to reach normal - thats all that one can reasonably expect - anything more is icing on the cake........ It doesn’t start to get hostile for snow here until 2/21. “Prime” snow season for our area is 12/20 - 2/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 I would not sleep on Wednesday's system, if I had to make a bet, I would say at least 1-3" is likely...looks pretty favorable in terms of heights building, storm track and cold air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 25 minutes ago, nycsnow said: As cold and as wintry as it’s been remember Central Park still needs 12ish inches just to hit its average snowfall Uh ? A few more inches to reach normal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The normal is not 33 inches its a few inches less Its around 28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 27 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It doesn’t start to get hostile for snow here until 2/21. “Prime” snow season for our area is 12/20 - 2/20 I said "Sourthern Snows" NOT NYC snows ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 29 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It doesn’t start to get hostile for snow here until 2/21. “Prime” snow season for our area is 12/20 - 2/20 February 21 is still early. Try late March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Just now, MJO812 said: February 21 is still early. Try late March. He said "prime" season so he's correct. And our March snows have been few and far between lately but I feel better than usual about our chances this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: February 21 is still early. Try late March. It does not take until the end of March to start to get hostile for big NYC snowstorms. Look at climo. Once you get to 2/21, the number of big snowstorms in NYC starts a pronounced drop off. Once you get to 3/1, the number really starts to drop off. I’m not saying it can’t snow, that would be ridiculous, but the number of big snowstorms in NYC absolutely starts dropping on 2/21 and it starts dropping off even more rapidly on 3/1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 amazing how the anti snow folks come back and post once any immediate snow threat is gone. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, nycwinter said: amazing how the anti snow folks come back and post once any immediate snow threat is gone. thats what makes this forum - Fill in the blank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 GEPS/EPS have a bit of a hostile period where the SER connects to the block but it does not seem to last long. GEFS does not have it at all or its briefer. I think we probably hit or exceed normal snows before its all over though 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Woke up this morning to frozen pipes it’s cold out. Used a hair dyer on my cold line leading to the hot water heater. Thank god it worked. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Pattern is cold with staunch 5H blocking ne Canada and snowcover preserving the cold for another 3 weeks, I think. How much snow? Maybe not much til after 2/10, but tracking multitude of northern stream vorts will determine til then. After 1/9, appears there is broad WAA (5H height rises) central USA progressing east, overrunning a pretty decent cold dome here. Am aware CP did not drop below 10 this morning... and so far 9 for the season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Still need about 12" here to reach average. I think between now and the next 2 weeks we could make up around half of that. Maybe more if something bigger pops up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: GEPS/EPS have a bit of a hostile period where the SER connects to the block but it does not seem to last long. GEFS does not have it at all or its briefer. I think we probably hit or exceed normal snows before its all over though I’m at 29-30” here and average is low to mid 30s. Confident we get to that number and probably over 40”. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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