Stormlover74 Posted Tuesday at 02:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:12 PM Cold to start. Will storms return or mostly dry? Early spring? What will the groundhog say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted Wednesday at 06:18 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:18 PM Is it too soon to start a thread? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 01:38 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:38 AM Weeklies continue with this cold and stormy pattern until March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 10:12 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:12 AM Per the Euro we are still below freezing through the 14th lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted yesterday at 11:07 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:07 AM 54 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Per the Euro we are still below freezing through the 14th lol The 0z has temps briefly sneaking up above freezing on the 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago A few notes: ECMWF sub seasonal ensembles via ecmwf.int. imo tend to be too dry here in the northeast and deny the shorter range global ensemble expectations. Be alert for that. Huge error this past weekend - see attached ecmwf.int prediction the 19th, and you know what happened! Also fwiw: via ECMWF.int. Week 3-4, 2m temp departures, I suspect are related to snow cover... see the repeated weekly prediction of colder than normal-here ne USA and OH Valley, and where the snow depth is this morning (and the southern boundary likely to be close to that 16 days - Valentines Day) from now. GFS MOS (MEX). I have no access ecmwf mos. GFS MOS is missing too warm on nighttime lows NYC CP... this I think will be a factor on getting much colder than morning MEX MINS this weekend as the BL wind tends to go northernly---easier access CP. I still try for 2-3F above zero. This also portends the power of the weekend storm. Occasionally prior to these huge northeast snowstorms, it sets up with MB T cold prior to, like this past weekend, and what I think is likely this weekend (excepting unknown nw fringe of snowfall). If you read Weather Wise (Ludlum et al) issues for the big snowstorms including Kennedy Inaugural Jan 1961... big time cold prior to. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago Gfs is clipper city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago The 6z ECMWF-AIFS is pretty snowy late next week. The 12 AIGFS is very similar aloft. Pond ice is great. Winter tracking continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago Harbors will be frozen and walkable by 2/7. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago The storm on the GFS around 2/11 has some promise. It’s a similar setup to last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Insane What’s is the precipitation forecast for this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: What’s is the precipitation forecast for this time? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Clipper city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Gfs likes the 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 12 hours ago Author Share Posted 12 hours ago 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs likes the 5th Could be a solid 3 to 6 if it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago On 1/28/2026 at 1:18 PM, NorthShoreWx said: Is it too soon to start a thread? It’s coming 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 49 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Clipper city remember that clipper storm more then a decade ago that dove all the way to south carolina then rapidly intensified to a blizzard and produced close to 40 inches on eastern long island nyc only got about 10 inches we need that kind of clipper.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Groundhog is currently frozen. 6 more weeks of winter. Next legit threat. Big +PNA spike leading into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: Groundhog is currently frozen. 6 more weeks of winter. Next legit threat. Big +PNA spike leading into it. A lot of waves coming down. Modeling is gonna jump around a lot. Wave spacing might be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 1 minute ago, Nibor said: A lot of waves coming down. Modeling is gonna jump around a lot. Wave spacing might be a problem. No doubt. There's never really been anything ever thats looked free of problems has there? Opportunity is all we can ask for. I like ~7th though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Just now, EasternLI said: No doubt. There's never really been anything ever thats looked free of problems has there? Opportunity is all we can ask for. I like ~7th though I do too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: No doubt. There's never really been anything ever thats looked free of problems has there? I don't think so, except maybe 2/6/1978. Or maybe they just got lucky. I was a school kid. Friday they said we were gonna have a humdinger on Monday. Monday into Tuesday we did. I remember taking a portable radio to an indoor track meet on Saturday so I could get updates. This shit is a life-long affliction (fortunately). Like you joked above, it seems like every storm since has approached with unrelenting drama. Having umpteen models to look at contributes. Maybe it was easier when there was basically the LFM and not much else and it happened to be right that time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago AI GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Gfs is clipper after clipper but we do well with both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is clipper after clipper but we do well with both of them. The first wave on the 5th is not a true Clipper it originates in the southern plains and appears as a LP in the Mid-West at least on the 0Z GFS - and moves almost directly east to the Mid-Atlantic coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago It looks like we go back into a northern stream dominated pattern again next week. Like we just saw in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 hours ago, EasternLI said: Groundhog is currently frozen. 6 more weeks of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 37 minutes ago Share Posted 37 minutes ago Gfs just came south and weaker for the 5th like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 23 minutes ago Share Posted 23 minutes ago There are a lot of unknowns/uncertainty about the projected SSW and SPV split: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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