February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[Stormlover74]

Cold to start. Will storms return or mostly dry? Early spring? What will the groundhog say?

[NorthShoreWx]

Is it too soon to start a thread? 

 

[MJO812]

Weeklies continue with this cold and stormy pattern until March.

[MJO812]

Per the Euro we are still below freezing through the 14th lol

[IrishRob17]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Per the Euro we are still below freezing through the 14th lol

The 0z has temps briefly sneaking up above freezing on the 7th. 

[wdrag]

A few notes:  ECMWF sub seasonal ensembles via ecmwf.int.  imo tend to  be too dry here in the northeast and deny the shorter range global ensemble expectations.  Be alert for that.  Huge error this past weekend - see attached ecmwf.int prediction the 19th, and you know what happened!

Also fwiw:  via ECMWF.int. Week 3-4,  2m temp departures, I suspect are related to snow cover... see the repeated weekly prediction of colder than normal-here ne USA and OH Valley, and where the snow depth is this morning (and the southern boundary likely to be close to that 16 days - Valentines Day)  from now.

 GFS MOS (MEX). I have no access ecmwf mos. GFS MOS is missing too warm on nighttime lows NYC CP... this I think will be a factor on getting much colder than morning MEX MINS this weekend as the BL wind tends to go northernly---easier access CP.   I still try for 2-3F above zero. This also portends the power of the weekend storm. Occasionally prior to these huge northeast snowstorms, it sets up with MB T cold prior to, like this past weekend, and what I think is likely this weekend (excepting unknown nw fringe of snowfall). If you read Weather Wise (Ludlum et al) issues for the big snowstorms including Kennedy Inaugural Jan 1961... big time cold prior to.

 

[MJO812]

Gfs is clipper city

[eduggs]

The 6z ECMWF-AIFS is pretty snowy late next week. The 12 AIGFS is very similar aloft. Pond ice is great. Winter tracking continues...

[psv88]

Harbors will be frozen and walkable by 2/7.

[NJwx85]

The storm on the GFS around 2/11 has some promise. It’s a similar setup to last weekend.

[MJO812]

Insane 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Insane 

What’s is the precipitation forecast for this time?

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

What’s is the precipitation forecast for this time?

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Clipper city 

[MJO812]

Gfs likes the 5th

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs likes the 5th

Could be a solid 3 to 6 if it holds

[WestBabylonWeather]

On 1/28/2026 at 1:18 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

Is it too soon to start a thread? 

 

It’s coming 

[nycwinter]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Clipper city 

remember that clipper storm more then a decade ago that dove all the way to south carolina then rapidly intensified to a blizzard and produced close to 40 inches on eastern long island nyc only got about 10 inches we need that kind of clipper..

[EasternLI]

Groundhog is currently frozen. 6 more weeks of winter. Next legit threat. Big +PNA spike leading into it.

 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Groundhog is currently frozen. 6 more weeks of winter. Next legit threat. Big +PNA spike leading into it.

 

A lot of waves coming down. Modeling is gonna jump around a lot.

Wave spacing might be a problem.

[EasternLI]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

A lot of waves coming down. Modeling is gonna jump around a lot.

Wave spacing might be a problem.

No doubt. There's never really been anything ever thats looked free of problems has there?  Opportunity is all we can ask for. I like ~7th though 

[Nibor]

Just now, EasternLI said:

No doubt. There's never really been anything ever thats looked free of problems has there?  Opportunity is all we can ask for. I like ~7th though 

I do too.