cleetussnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Maybe this is how you get winter enthusiasts to finally stop playing the "I'm not a denier while failing to admit CC is playing a factor" game ... By consummately bending them over with this fast flow shit, their bums may finally reach quota of violation enough to penetrate their minds with it. haha Tough sell. I'm below normal since November and at my seasonal average snowfall with 15" pack I can nearly walk on in late Jan, peak winter. Missing a super anomaly blizzard doesn't quite make the case. I'm all in on CC, but she's sitting this winter out in our region. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe it ends up missing, but I can tell you all of the pieces aren't nailed at this range...doesn't have to mean it shifts in our favor, but this isn't the 100% accurate as modeled, either. Yep still 3.5-4 days away. Also think the GFS and some others are chasing convection-doubt there's multiple lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Canadian will be west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Brian5671 said: Yep still 3.5-4 days away. Also think the GFS and some others are chasing convection-doubt there's multiple lows? It could happen like that theoretically, but probably more changes incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Yeah Brian, I was thinking similar. Get that to dive in and pull west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Love the Canadian STS again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Love the Canadian STS again. it's atleast trying to make things fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, ineedsnow said: it's atleast trying to make things fun If it can't give you a tropical in summer, it will just try again in winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I’m not sold on the late tug back NW on the gfs. I doubt that verifies like that. What a nuke for the cape, and even a warning event into se Mass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 If we could just consolidate all this convection into one SLP i think you would find this wanting to track more NNW, All these models have 2-3 lows at the surface. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m not sold on the late tug back NW on the gfs. I doubt that verifies like that. What a nuke for the cape, and even a warning event into se Mass. I'm not sold on anything yet.. it will probably be Friday before we figure this out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m not sold on the late tug back NW on the gfs. I doubt that verifies like that. What a nuke for the cape, and even a warning event into se Mass. If it gets captured then it absolutely will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 It's a massive gyre so a tug NW like that certainly is possible. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I remember 2 buggies that were close in misses recently that this kind of is reminiscent of. 1. March 2014-a 75 mile difference between flurries and a blizzard. 2. March 2020-same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 16 minutes ago, CT Rain said: ...for ACK. Oh it’s gonna snow a lot this weekend . Well back into NY state 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 GEFS looks like it will be slightly worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 This is reminiscent of 2015. All those storms started East and by go time. It was snowing to Binghamton 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I know that its all random and not casual at all but it seems to me like the odds of getting two storms with 1-2 feet of snow within a week of one another has to be pretty low. Therefore, the odds of it happening are not that great. I hope that I'm wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Wow! Here we are 3-4 days out from the evolution of a very complex / incredibly unusual upper-level setup, and this is being dismissed, as a gone / done deal? Based on short-term trends of the ICON, NAM, GFS, etc... Maybe this ends up being a miss for most, but sitting here on Wednesday morning and pulling the plug on a weekend storm based on the less than perfect trends (ICON, GFS, CMC, NAM) is a bit baffling? We are still looking at a wild 500 mb evolution that a day ago was being labeled as historic with lots of uncertainty as to whether or not it was believable. How many of the "it's gone" believers will shut their computers off and not turn it back on until early next week to follow the next threat? Lol... Some of this is in jest, but the doom and gloom & confidence being professed it a bit over the top given the setup... just saying... 1 2 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Ukie is a whiff again, but slightly better aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I never said it wont happen, just that the odds of getting two back to back storms that drop feet of snow is low. Just talking probability thats all. Doesn't mean that it wont happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 GGEM is nice for the Cape and islands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said: I never said it wont happen, just that the odds of getting two back to back storms that drop feet of snow is low. Just talking probability thats all. Doesn't mean that it wont happen. It is also a low probability to even have a major threat less than a week after a biggie. But here we are....whether it hits or not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said: I never said it wont happen, just that the odds of getting two back to back storms that drop feet of snow is low. Just talking probability thats all. Doesn't mean that it wont happen. We actually have seen that occurrence here. Let’s go to 2015. A 2 footer followed a week later by an 16 incher followed a week later by a 2 footer followed a week later by a 16 incher. The pattern doesn’t play the probability game but to your point, everything has to go perfectly right and that’s hard. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 If ("IF") the eventual track is just 20-30 miles to the NW, to which all can agree no model will track exactly. Exclusive to OP runs GFS 12z brings 2"QPF over the elbow of Cape. Butterfly Effect! Watching very closely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: I remember 2 buggies that were close in misses recently that this kind of is reminiscent of. 1. March 2014-a 75 mile difference between flurries and a blizzard. 2. March 2020-same Brutal...it was in the days leading into the funeral services for my dad. I remember desperately seeking an escape on my cell while gathered with family to clean out his home, only to find a White Juan redux in NS. Blustery, cold (dry) unsympathetic month that was- 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 So the GEFS started a little further south otherwise not much difference. MAYBE a couple more west members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, weathafella said: We actually have seen that occurrence here. Let’s go to 2015. A 2 footer followed a week later by an 16 incher followed a week later by a 2 footer followed a week later by a 16 incher. The pattern doesn’t play the probability game but to your point, everything has to go perfectly right and that’s hard. Right 2015 is a perfect example of that where every factor had to line up perfectly and it did. I hope that this one crushes us also. We all need it after this stretch that we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I remember Bruce Schwoegler saying many years ago that a storm being 75-100 east from impact 3-4 days away is nothing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: I remember Bruce Schwoegler saying many years ago that a storm being 75-100 east from impact 3-4 days away is nothing Especially back then. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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