Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

East and SE Areas killed it. We lost tons to virga out this way unfortunately.  

It was meh here.  Definitely a latitude storm.  We got 10” of sand.  Big storm to the south of the MA southern border.

[CoastalWx]

Well I don't mean a hit, but it may have gotten close when looking at H5 vectors etc. Not that it means much at this stage,

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

One thing for sure…We haven’t had a winter this cold in several years. And I didn’t miss it 

I've actually changed my perspective on this and I think the massive snow cover has helped with that. When I was outside the other night, it brought back some good memories. A deep snow cover with frigid temperatures and a gusty wind...kind of makes you remember what winter should be. Not to mention just soaking up the landscape around you. It also reminds me of the Little House on the Prairie Book series...I can image myself in the Dakotas in the early days during blizzards and frigid temperatures. 

Also, this will make the warm weather that much more welcomed and enjoyable when we reach that time

[ORH_wxman]

NAM would prob still get eastern areas I think…but I’m not gonna spend more than about 30 seconds extrapolating the 84h NAM. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I've never seen so much long range NAM analysis and hedging.

[dryslot]

Trying to not leave any crumbs behind.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've never seen so much long range NAM analysis and hedging.

I did qualify the effort with selfy         already an hour ago so I think I'm covered

[Chrisrotary12]

How anomalous is this set up though? As the lobe drops into the U.S. it is oriented positive 90 degrees E-W. Tilting negatively to a neutral N-S orientation. Most of our troughs start out slightly positive and tilt to a slightly negative orientation. 
The CIPS analogues show big hits because those bowling balls over the southeast are in the process of tilting negatively past N-S neuteal and climbing the coast. 
Wheras this system has already tilted negatively 90 degrees which only gets us to neutral. Thus the escape is primarily east-northeast versus north-northeast. 
Do I think it is going to snow? Yes. But probably not because the whole thing comes north, but rather the models are under predicting the expansion of the precipitation shield as the storm occludes and drifts. 

[Layman]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Edit NAM:  altho - this didn't end up bad looking at 84 hours. It's still a little west of the others, which is sensible. Extrapolating this...  I cold see two things possibly happening ...

1, the voriticity shrapnel fanning off GA is likely convective explosion ( I discussed that erstwhile missing component to these global model solutions to date, last night - ).  That would release latent heat to the total wave space, jacking the Atl perenial height wall which counter offers resistance to an E track.   That's theoretical but does factor so ... pretty proven. 

2, that becomes overly aggressive, and a low is biased/stretched toward said convection... starving the low that would otherwise be triggered closer to synoptic q-g forcing associated with that gdz hole in the sky approaching the coast. 

I think I get the gist of part 1 here, but does someone have a non-Tip explanation of part 2?  I'm good up to the "biased/stretched toward said convection" part but get lost thereafter 

[wxsniss]

Others have commented on this, but it's illustrated well on this last NAM 12z (worse) vs. 6z (better)...

The distribution / momentum of lumps of vorticity has a huge impact on the structure / tilt / timing of the trough and where our storm forms and ejects.

On the NAM, if you look specifically at 6z Saturday timepoint at the energy over MO / IN / IA, 12z comes in like a flat swinging pendulum, whereas 6z run already has curvature in the stream allowing the ULL to close off further west. 

Same thing underlying improvements in the EC over past 4 cycles... compare 6z going back 4 cycles and look how it's trended better with that curvature at 6z Saturday:

 

[deathstar9]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It was meh here.  Definitely a latitude storm.  We got 10” of sand.  Big storm to the south of the MA southern border.

Does that mean qpf was actually pretty high and ratios were poor?

[Snowcrazed71]

I really think we're pulling strings to get this storm to the New England area. I can see it affecting far Eastern New England, but things haven't really been bringing the storm closer and to give most of the region a good storm. If by some chance it makes its way back towards the coast in the next 2 days, we'll all rejoice.  But, I'm going with a miss at this point for at least our area in Connecticut. 

Not concerned, there will be more

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

How anomalous is this set up though? As the lobe drops into the U.S. it is oriented positive 90 degrees E-W. Tilting negatively to a neutral N-S orientation. Most of our troughs start out slightly positive and tilt to a slightly negative orientation. 
The CIPS analogues show big hits because those bowling balls over the southeast are in the process of tilting negatively past N-S neuteal and climbing the coast. 
Wheras this system has already tilted negatively 90 degrees which only gets us to neutral. Thus the escape is primarily east-northeast versus north-northeast. 
Do I think it is going to snow? Yes. But probably not because the whole thing comes north, but rather the models are under predicting the expansion of the precipitation shield as the storm occludes and drifts. 

This would lend itself to a protracted, moderate event in all likelihood....boring AF.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, Layman said:

I think I get the gist of part 1 here, but does someone have a non-Tip explanation of part 2?  I'm good up to the "biased/stretched toward said convection" part but get lost thereafter 

Just look at this chart ...  Do you see these cyclonic nodes way the fuck out E of the trough ... ?   that's #2

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, deathstar9 said:

Does that mean qpf was actually pretty high and ratios were low?

It was a system that buried areas from DC-far  SNE.  Not sure of the qpf but it was less vs Steve I would guess.

[Layman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just look at this chart ...  Do you see these cyclonic nodes way the fuck out E of the trough ... ?   that's #2

That’s interesting and the visual is really helpful - Thanks

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

How anomalous is this set up though? As the lobe drops into the U.S. it is oriented positive 90 degrees E-W. Tilting negatively to a neutral N-S orientation. Most of our troughs start out slightly positive and tilt to a slightly negative orientation. 
The CIPS analogues show big hits because those bowling balls over the southeast are in the process of tilting negatively past N-S neuteal and climbing the coast. 
Wheras this system has already tilted negatively 90 degrees which only gets us to neutral. Thus the escape is primarily east-northeast versus north-northeast. 
Do I think it is going to snow? Yes. But probably not because the whole thing comes north, but rather the models are under predicting the expansion of the precipitation shield as the storm occludes and drifts. 

Two things are happening, both neggie to winter storm bombard enthusiasts ( haha)

1, the mid/u/a tropospheric lows are failing to capture the lower levels, which are skittering out ahead .. perhaps some convective drag, too

2, the, the mid/u/a tropospheric lows are in total taking a rather broad parabolic journey ..swinging hugely from MIssouri to SE of the BM  ...

This latter aspect I'm waiting on the guidance to correct.  Even 15%'s the difference maker here. 

[Kitz Craver]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just look at this chart ...  Do you see these cyclonic nodes way the fuck out E of the trough ... ?   that's #2

It’s gonna chase that shit IMO

[ariof]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

2-1.

We need the DGEX to vote too.

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It was a system that buried areas from DC-far  SNE.  Not sure of the qpf but it was less vs Steve I would guess.

?  My core included 2 in pack already on the ground 

[weatherwiz]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM would prob still get eastern areas I think…but I’m not gonna spend more than about 30 seconds extrapolating the 84h NAM. 

That's still about 30 seconds too long

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s gonna chase that shit IMO

I've actually seen it happen.    In fact, shit I don't remember which one but for the longest time after learning about convective-grid-scale feedback in undergrad studies, I just went ahead and assumed that all cold winter deep trough approaching the Gulf/adjacent SW Atlantic warm moist source would trigger that phenomenon. 

But, convection really early in the total synoptic evolution ... , can be real, too.  The difference is whether it is on the grid intervals. That causes the low formulation .. which then escapes in the streamline downstream, taking a lot of latent heat away from the primary forcing associated with the main trough.  This is less than technically everything going on but just making concept here... 

However, there was storm in my lore that was maybe 20 years ago, where I-be damned if a big plume of convection didn't erupt and gobble all the fuel away and escape seaward.  I was like, 'wtf!  that's supposed to be convective fakery'  - that's when I gathered the difference between a real convection tainted event, and one that is manufactured by the models and is thus not necessarily real. It's a quasi now-cast thing in the 18 hours prior... 

[CoastalWx]

Gonna be Igone too.

[metagraphica]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just look at this chart ...  Do you see these cyclonic nodes way the fuck out E of the trough ... ?   that's #2

 

14 minutes ago, Layman said:

That’s interesting and the visual is really helpful - Thanks

 

9 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s gonna chase that shit IMO

That's a perfect example of the things Messenger would notice when blasting all the hopefulls with his "Messenger Shuffles".  Convective/Cyclonic nodes out east dragging the whole system east = "No snow for you!!"

[Kitz Craver]

From what I can see early panels of the ICON look like it’s gonna be SE?

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

From what I can see early panels of the ICON look like it’s gonna be SE?

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, that ICON solution's offering a brand new twist to this whole thing...

The SPV aspect is like 25% weaker overall in its contribution/diving...  It's really reducing it to piece of shit status and weak.  If that happens, game over

[EastonSN+]

[Kitz Craver]

The entire trough on the ICON didn’t swing around, stayed positive and right out to sea

[Lava Rock]

not that it's going to happen, but a direct hit would result in how much sn? 12-18"?