Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[RI Rob]

GFS seems west through 72?

[WinterWolf]

Ridge looks better on GFS at 36hrs. 

[Wxbear25]

2 minutes ago, RI Rob said:

GFS seems west through 72?

I dont look at the surface until after I've seen the 500mb level through where I want to know the forecast for, but I can tell you heights are significantly more backed over the NE, which is what we want.

Whether or not it does the job at the surface, dunno yet

[Nomz]

GFS joins the party of crapping its pants trying to resolve bombogenesis

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Quadruple lows lol…

[weathafella]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Quadruple lows lol…

25% chance?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Quadruple lows lol…

lol..maybe we can get all four to phase into one…quadruple phaser.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It finally consolidates for NS though. 

[Wxbear25]

Looks like it ends up between the 12z and the 18z, good hit for Nantucket looks like

[Snowcrazed71]

What is happening with these models? They truly aren't making any logical sense?

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It finally consolidates for NS though. 

The NS crew…quietly hoping, quietly praying, sitting’ back, smiling’.

[RDRY]

Maybe that 2nd low is the one. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

The NS crew…quietly hoping, quietly praying, sitting’ back, smiling’.

Ya, all two of em. 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

You are a gem.  Boys when we kicking off the nominations? 

[Greg]

We just can't have that many lows fighting for dominance. Only one can be the winner. This is the main problem here with these solutions coming out.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

We just can't have that many lows fighting for dominance. Only one can be the winner. This is the main problem here with these solutions coming out.

It’s all still in flux obviously….modeling trying to figure out which becomes the dominant player. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

25% chance?

So she is sayin there’s a chance…

[Nomz]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So she is sayin there’s a chance…

Down here in MA we're betting on a 4% chance according to 12z EPS members so... i'll take your odds over ours

[brooklynwx99]

18z EPS had almost 1" liquid into Boston and the GFS and CMC both have nothing. what a world we live in

[ROOSTA]

I wonder how many modeled multi surface L actually verify?

Asking for..., just for the sake of asking.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

18z EPS had almost 1" liquid into Boston and the GFS and CMC both have nothing. what a world we live in

The whole evolution is weird and we won't really have better sampling until at least tomorrow night.   The GFS still has the energy diving down, trying to snort a line off a bar in Miami and then blow a low up off the Georgia coast.  

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

18z EPS had almost 1" liquid into Boston and the GFS and CMC both have nothing. what a world we live in

Gfs and cmc have a million lows

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

18z EPS had almost 1" liquid into Boston and the GFS and CMC both have nothing. what a world we live in

0z so far hasn’t shown us anything….Can the Euro continue its improvement, or will it snap back to trash/incoherence? 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs and cmc have a million lows

Incoherence with those two model runs. 

[Wxbear25]

Its all gonna come down to how well the ULL can reign in any front-running energy ahead of it. The more compact the system is in the upper-levels, the more consolidated it will be at the surface and the further north it will get before eventually pinwheeling northeast

these runs that end up going SE, you can see how the heights east of the storm "open up", so to speak, and fail to wrap back into the system. This is the energy spawning those secondary areas of low pressure, which prevents the system from consolidating, and also resulting in less moisture transport to the main low resulting in paltry precip on the northwestern side of the coastal.

It can be seen quite clearly at 500mb vorticity at the hr 90/78 timestamps of the 12z/00z runs of the CMC. 

[78Blizzard]

Well, it's up to the Euro now.

A day or two ago it was the GFS against the world.  Will it now be the Euro against the world?  If the Euro caves, it may be time to move on to the next threat.

 

[Wxbear25]

9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Well, it's up to the Euro now.

A day or two ago it was the GFS against the world.  Will it now be the Euro against the world?  If the Euro caves, it may be time to move on to the next threat.

 

The energy that eventually becomes our storm is still over far-northern Ontario, which I cant imagine is great for data collection.

Remember the last system, how over time the northern stream sourced from the same region ended up stretching more and more as we got closer to the event? I wouldnt be surprised if we see that occur here as well.

That should be over the northern U.S. around 12z Friday, so personally im going to give it until then, even if we should have more info by 00z Thursday night

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Well, it's up to the Euro now.

A day or two ago it was the GFS against the world.  Will it now be the Euro against the world?  If the Euro caves, it may be time to move on to the next threat.

 

It’s gonna cave after it’s one rebound imo. But I don’t know if it’s time to bail yet. Gotta wait till the sampling is complete imo…then we move on if things don’t improve. 

[MJO812]

Gefs snowier

[Wxbear25]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs snowier

im wondering how much of that is being skewed by a couple of rogue members.

With that being said, ~10% chance of 24 hr QPF >1.00" over LI on the 00z run, as opposed to 0 on the 18z, so theres that