Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Maybe this is how you get winter enthusiasts to finally stop playing the "I'm not a denier while failing to admit CC is playing a factor" game ... By consummately bending them over with this fast flow shit, their bums may finally reach quota of violation enough to penetrate their minds with it.  haha

Tough sell.  I'm below normal since November and at my seasonal average snowfall with 15" pack I can nearly walk on in late Jan, peak winter.  Missing a super anomaly blizzard doesn't quite make the case.  I'm all in on CC, but she's sitting this winter out in our region.  

[Brian5671]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe it ends up missing, but I can tell you all of the pieces aren't nailed at this range...doesn't have to mean it shifts in our favor, but this isn't the 100% accurate as modeled, either.

Yep still 3.5-4 days away.   Also think the GFS and some others are chasing convection-doubt there's multiple lows?

[CoastalWx]

Canadian will be west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Yep still 3.5-4 days away.   Also think the GFS and some others are chasing convection-doubt there's multiple lows?

It could happen like that theoretically, but probably more changes incoming.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah Brian, I was thinking similar. Get that to dive in and pull west.

[CoastalWx]

Love the Canadian STS again.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Love the Canadian STS again.

it's atleast trying to make things fun

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

it's atleast trying to make things fun

If it can't give you a tropical in summer, it will just try again in winter.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’m not sold on the late tug back NW on the gfs. I doubt that verifies like that.

What a nuke for the cape, and even a warning event into se Mass. 

[dryslot]

If we could just consolidate all this convection into one SLP i think you would find this wanting to track more NNW, All these models have 2-3 lows at the surface.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not sold on the late tug back NW on the gfs. I doubt that verifies like that.

What a nuke for the cape, and even a warning event into se Mass. 

I'm not sold on anything yet.. it will probably be Friday before we figure this out

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not sold on the late tug back NW on the gfs. I doubt that verifies like that.

What a nuke for the cape, and even a warning event into se Mass. 

If it gets captured then it absolutely will.

[CoastalWx]

It's a massive gyre so a tug NW like that certainly is possible.

[weathafella]

I remember 2 buggies that were close in misses recently that this kind of is reminiscent of.

1.  March 2014-a 75 mile difference between flurries and a blizzard.

2. March 2020-same

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

...for ACK. 

Oh it’s gonna snow a lot this weekend . Well back into NY state 

[EastonSN+]

GEFS looks like it will be slightly worse.

[Damage In Tolland]

This is reminiscent of 2015. All those storms started East and by go time. It was snowing to Binghamton 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

I know that its all random and not casual at all but it seems to me like the odds of getting two storms with 1-2 feet of snow within a week of one another has to be pretty low. Therefore, the odds of it happening are not that great. I hope that I'm wrong though.

[FXWX]

Wow! Here we are 3-4 days out from the evolution of a very complex / incredibly unusual upper-level setup, and this is being dismissed, as a gone / done deal?  Based on short-term trends of the ICON, NAM, GFS, etc... Maybe this ends up being a miss for most, but sitting here on Wednesday morning and pulling the plug on a weekend storm based on the less than perfect trends (ICON, GFS, CMC, NAM) is a bit baffling?  We are still looking at a wild 500 mb evolution that a day ago was being labeled as historic with lots of uncertainty as to whether or not it was believable.  How many of the "it's gone" believers will shut their computers off and not turn it back on until early next week to follow the next threat?  Lol... Some of this is in jest, but the doom and gloom & confidence being professed it a bit over the top given the setup... just saying...

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie is a whiff again, but slightly better aloft. 

 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

I never said it wont happen, just that the odds of getting two back to back storms that drop feet of snow is low. Just talking probability thats all. Doesn't mean that it wont happen.

[dendrite]

GGEM is nice for the Cape and islands.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I never said it wont happen, just that the odds of getting two back to back storms that drop feet of snow is low. Just talking probability thats all. Doesn't mean that it wont happen.

It is also a low probability to even have a major threat less than a week after a biggie. But here we are....whether it hits or not. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I never said it wont happen, just that the odds of getting two back to back storms that drop feet of snow is low. Just talking probability thats all. Doesn't mean that it wont happen.

We actually have seen that occurrence here.  Let’s go to 2015.  A 2 footer followed a week later by an 16 incher followed a week later by a 2 footer followed a week later by a 16 incher.  The pattern doesn’t play the probability game but to your point, everything has to go perfectly right and that’s hard.

[ROOSTA]

If ("IF") the eventual track is just 20-30 miles to the NW, to which all can agree no model will track exactly.
Exclusive to OP runs GFS 12z brings 2"QPF over the elbow of Cape.    
Butterfly Effect!
Watching very closely. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I remember 2 buggies that were close in misses recently that this kind of is reminiscent of.

1.  March 2014-a 75 mile difference between flurries and a blizzard.

2. March 2020-same

Brutal...it was in the days leading into the funeral services for my dad. I remember desperately seeking an escape on my cell while gathered with family to clean out his home, only to find a White Juan redux in NS. Blustery, cold (dry) unsympathetic month that was-

[EastonSN+]

So the GEFS started a little further south otherwise not much difference. MAYBE a couple more west members.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

We actually have seen that occurrence here.  Let’s go to 2015.  A 2 footer followed a week later by an 16 incher followed a week later by a 2 footer followed a week later by a 16 incher.  The pattern doesn’t play the probability game but to your point, everything has to go perfectly right and that’s hard.

Right 2015 is a perfect example of that where every factor had to line up perfectly and it did. I hope that this one crushes us also. We all need it after this stretch that we've had. 

[Cyclone-68]

I remember Bruce Schwoegler saying many years ago that a storm being 75-100 east from impact 3-4 days away is nothing 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

I remember Bruce Schwoegler saying many years ago that a storm being 75-100 east from impact 3-4 days away is nothing 

Especially back then.