Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[dendrite]

Yup…more suppression up here in advance. 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea these small ticks back and forth at this lead time does not breed confidence we can trend it far enough NW next 3 days for a regional hit. 

I would be really surprised if we get much, if anything from this....Sometimes things have that look, maybe a few days ago this one did. At this point it just seems like once we get closer to go time, this storm will consolidate further off shore. Carolinas, maybe even the Delmarva region. Cape region still has a shot, but out here, meh

[weatherwiz]

really want to give this until 12z tomorrow before totally writing off...well at least when talking about back towards and west of the CT River. This is going to be a really close call in the end

[CoastalWx]

Too bad. Would be a hell of a storm.

[Lucy Pull]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

AI GFS tick east.

GFS op more potent with PV lobe, but more confluence here. Shit streak ruining the 12z runs so far.

Seems like for every positive influence there’s an equal or worse negative influence.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'm back on the train cuzo. i think euro ai trends back west big time today and doesn't have a good handle on nor'easters 

Keep me updated on your thoughts.

[dryslot]

Still looks like it trys to pivot back a bit west late.

[CoastalWx]

At leaast Ray can blog about the outer banks.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I would be really surprised if we get much, if anything from this....Sometimes things have that look, maybe a few days ago this one did. At this point it just seems like once we get closer to go time, this storm will consolidate further off shore. Carolinas, maybe even the Delmarva region. Cape region still has a shot, but out here, meh

Agree. 

[CT Rain]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Too bad. Would be a hell of a storm.

Yeah just not feeling this one.

The Cape could still get hit hard though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

At leaast Ray can blog about the outer banks.

Still not sold on a miss.

[weathafella]

43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

?  My core included 2 in pack already on the ground 

You were in the meat.  I was in the fringe.  We both experienced it but your experience was southern sne and mine was pike region which borders on northern sne

[Typhoon Tip]

Hate to say ... fast fukin' atmosphere striking again in this RDPD run...  this rapid inject over the crown of the +PNAP ridge out west is screwing things up...  'Is it real?  I dunno

[SnoSki14]

Yeah it ain't happening 

[ORH_wxman]

Late surge this run NW

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It would of made this a historic stretch out here and practically sealed a great winter but nice things aren’t given that easily…

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still not sold on a miss.

I'm just kidding. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still not sold on a miss.

Lock step on this one. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Effing boob lows again. .

[dryslot]

All the convection is wreaking havoc on the model placement with the low at the surface.

[CoastalWx]

Almost 2" QPF for CHH. Feb 89 bliz repeat?

[Typhoon Tip]

Maybe this is how you get winter enthusiasts to finally stop playing the "I'm not a denier while failing to admit CC is playing a factor" game ... By consummately bending them over with this fast flow shit, their bums may finally reach quota of violation enough to penetrate their minds with it.  haha

[Damage In Tolland]

Here it comes 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Maybe this is how you get winter enthusiasts to finally stop playing the "I'm not a denier while failing to admit CC is playing a factor" game ... But consummately bending them over with this fast flow shit, their bums may finally reach quota of violation enough to penetrate their minds with it.  haha

That would be harder looking out at 2 feet. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Maybe this is how you get winter enthusiasts to finally stop playing the "I'm not a denier while failing to admit CC is playing a factor" game ... By consummately bending them over with this fast flow shit, their bums may finally reach quota of violation enough to penetrate their minds with it.  haha

The only thing that has me bent over this month is the herniated disc I incurred from all of the shoveling....thanks, CC.

[EastonSN+]

A miss would hurt due to what could have been.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here it comes 

...for ACK. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Late surge this run NW

The ULL was a little slower and that trailing shortwave got a little more SE…maybe it feeling a bit of a “pull” last minute? I wish this s/w would just dive in sooner behind it.

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It would of made this a historic stretch out here and practically sealed a great winter but nice things aren’t given that easily…

That's what hurts the most. This could have been a great one a week after a massive hit. That plus not seeing much in the near term.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The ULL was a little slower and that trailing shortwave got a little more SE…maybe it feeling a bit of a “pull” last minute? I wish this s/w would just dive in sooner behind it.

Maybe it ends up missing, but I can tell you all of the pieces aren't nailed at this range...doesn't have to mean it shifts in our favor, but this isn't 100% accurate as modeled, either. Lots of elements interacting here.