Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[ROOSTA]

Patience 

ATT / Takeaway it's a signal with agreement of models on all levels. To early to write off, trends yes with no definitive outcome. 

Won't get fooled again. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was responding to Donnie 2 states.

Right, but he was agreeing with me, so that's why I replied. No biggie.

[Go Kart Mozart]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There isn't much I really see, at least on the large-scale, that indicates this would go out to sea. Now, that doesn't mean this can't end up tracking far enough away that it only grazes the coast but I don't see a totally OTS solution here. I like the building -NAO too, particularly west based. I guess ultimately it would be best to get the 500 energy to dig slightly more west into Alabama but not a big issue at this stage

Dig more west, or not so deep?  I think we want closure closer to Norfolk rather than Myrtle Beach.  Maybe digging west accomplishes the same thing?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right, but he was agreeing with me, so that's why I replied. No biggie.

Modeling struggles with depth of cold and Baroclinic processes. Putting a 518 abreast the gulf stream in SC is as rare as it gets. That stall is not real.

[kazimirkai]

Interesting to see EPS and GEFS trending in opposite directions. GEPS sits pretty happily in the middle

[WeatherGeek2025]

whatever Euro AI shows today, I will go with that forecast!

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Dig more west, or not so deep?  I think we want closure closer to Norfolk rather than Myrtle Beach.  Maybe digging west accomplishes the same thing?

Yeah we definitely do not want this thing closing (at H5) too early. I think we'd even want it to be a bit farther north than Norfolk in a perfect world. But if we can dig that trough slightly more west and deeper that would certainly help tug this west a bit. However, thinking about this more closely, I question as to whether we would want this to dig more west and deep...if that happens we could run the risk of tracking this up right along the coast or even slightly inland. 

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

whatever Euro AI shows today, I will go with that forecast!

Alright - well fukit then, me too.  

[dryslot]

47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I still think this comes farther northwest. 

The 0z Euro was add to with the H5 vort. I don't think this vort is real...might be associated with convection and it seems the Euro then shifts the focus of evolution to this vort and results in south and east. 

Your getting both of those pinwheeling to the NNE, Lot of these models have this dual low structure, Models struggling to where to place the low at the surface off the coast.

[Spaizzo]

Interesting to see EPS and GEFS trending in opposite directions. GEPS sits pretty happily in the middle

That was the case last storm too, no?


.

[Typhoon Tip]

47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I still think this comes farther northwest. 

The 0z Euro was add to with the H5 vort. I don't think this vort is real...might be associated with convection and it seems the Euro then shifts the focus of evolution to this vort and results in south and east. 

just using your chart here...

yeah, it's almost to the point of frustration that the models appear to be disconnecting the wave -space arguments in their physical result/processing. That ridge being over Idaho ...if anything that presupposes a position near WV with that tough axis.. which would probably parlay quite favorably.     That's a bizarrely stretched looking gunk L/W filled with distractions...

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Your getting both of those pinwheeling to the NNE, Lot of these models have this dual low structure, Models struggling to where to place the low at the surface off the coast.

Yup...this is a model weakness in these airmasses. Forecast models don't have the necessary resolution to accurately handle this so you'll see the models just want to put the low where the warm air is. 

We certainly can't rule out a dual low structure either and there is a chance that this system has more in the way of convection associated with it which adds additional problems (as we know)

[dryslot]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think we got about 2 ...maybe 3 cycles remaining. After that, it's probably a consensus go or no go

Just was going to post that until i just saw this, But i agree, We need to wait a couple more days at the very least for this to show its hand, It could end up being at least an eastern special.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

just using your chart here...

yeah, it's almost to the point of frustration that the models appear to be disconnecting the wave -space arguments in their physical result/processing. That ridge being over Idaho ...if anything that presupposes a position near WV with that tough axis.. which would probably parlay quite favorably.     That's a bizarrely stretched looking gunk L/W filled with distractions...

Also, the size of that high pressure system is massive, stretching from the upper-Midwest into southeast Canada southwest into the southern Plains...that as well argue for something farther north and west for track 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup...this is a model weakness in these airmasses. Forecast models don't have the necessary resolution to accurately handle this so you'll see the models just want to put the low where the warm air is. 

We certainly can't rule out a dual low structure either and there is a chance that this system has more in the way of convection associated with it which adds additional problems (as we know)

Violently agree with the bolded, Some time it giveth, But many times it taketh.

[cleetussnow]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just was going to post that until i just saw this, But i agree, We need to wait a couple more days at the very least for this to show its hand, It could end up being at least an eastern special.

Jan 2018 vibe totally, and that did throw decent snow back to the Hudson valley.  Stowe was -30.  we went skiing anyway.  

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Violently agree with the bolded, Some time it giveth, But many times it taketh.

What really sucks about this is it is nearly impossible to gauge the validity of that aspect until real time (or at least not until within 6-12 hours). 

[WinterWolf]

The 96 January blizzard…was a southern storm in the beginning too, that started to gain latitude later in the game…hoping this can follow that idea. 

[cleetussnow]

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Modeling struggles with depth of cold and Baroclinic processes. Putting a 518 abreast the gulf stream in SC is as rare as it gets. That stall is not real.

I agree....all I am saying is I am more worried about occlusion than OTS.

[CoastalWx]

Icon is Igone 

[cleetussnow]

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

just using your chart here...

yeah, it's almost to the point of frustration that the models appear to be disconnecting the wave -space arguments in their physical result/processing. That ridge being over Idaho ...if anything that presupposes a position near WV with that tough axis.. which would probably parlay quite favorably.     That's a bizarrely stretched looking gunk L/W filled with distractions...

Yea, that ridge position is ideal...said the exact, same thing in my write up.

[dendrite]

96 had a much different look in the days preceding it’s approach up here than this system appears to have right now.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This is not going to happen, I don’t think. Euro being entirely a whiff on the mean is pretty much all I need to see. Nice fodder for a day or so, but chances were always low 

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

96 had a much different look in the days preceding it’s approach up here than this system appears to have right now.

Out west looks similar - but the trough is positive tilt this time out - I posted approx the same time frames on the current 06z GFS 500 and the verified '96 500 vort.  

[WxWatcher007]

45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was responding to Donnie 2 states.

 

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree....all I am saying is I am more worried about occlusion than OTS.

That map you showed Steve did not inspire confidence lol

 

I'm fine with Miller A. They’re preferable to me because they’re simple. I was agreeing with not wanting occlusion too soon, which is a risk here. More than OTS imo.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

96 had a much different look in the days preceding it’s approach up here than this system appears to have right now.

Every system is different obviously, was just referencing that that was progged to stay south vin its preceding approach too.  My gut tells me this goes OTS..but I hope I’m wrong. 

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Icon is Igone 

Would love to see it happen, but I was running out of room to put the snow we just got, so probably not very upset if it doesnt materialize. Also, not saying the Ivon is right, but the trend this morning is great, for now at least... Glad we got this last one, I am just about 5 inches away from my seasonal average

[TheSnowman]

The NWS has STILL not updated the now totals even with All the snow you guys got Monday in 25 Hours.  What the Hell is Going On!?