Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[Roger Smith]

Yep, the same low 100 miles east of Nantucket instead of 100 miles east of s DMV would give e MA what this model run gives Norfolk (30" snow). A track up towards Long Island and then over the islands and cape, with those pressures and air masses, would be a BECS like 1888. Or maybe it stalls where the Bliz of 78 stalled.

Of course maybe none of the above, but I think this early in the winter season a block and a right turn are not realistic, that is March into April sort of weather.  

[Kitz Craver]

With almost all ENS leaning west with some really tucked and strong SLP’s even more west. It’s odd to me that every OP is skirting this off the coast and exit stage right. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

With almost all ENS leaning west with some really tucked and strong SLP’s even more west. It’s odd to me that every OP is skirting this off the coast and exit stage right. 

Why is it odd ? Its still 5 days out.

[ineedsnow]

GEFS are great!

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why is it odd ? Its still 5 days out.

I just think within that ENS spread we would see some serious eye candy on OPs(well we did have that on the Canadian yesterday) I dunno, I just don’t like the double barrel low look as of late

[Roger Smith]

I guess you get a double 970 low if the model can't justify a 950 center in between them. To justify that would require that the 522 dm upper low become a 510 or 504 type of center. Then it explodes in that extreme baroclinic zone. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS are great!

absolutely wild, so amped.. tucked in deep members, High probs for 6"+ for a good chunk of NE. 24"+ odds for southeast Mass. Still 5 days away so wild to see those kinds of odds

[Sey-Mour Snow]

26 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

With almost all ENS leaning west with some really tucked and strong SLP’s even more west. It’s odd to me that every OP is skirting this off the coast and exit stage right. 

Also there are so many members 1000 miles east skewing the means.. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

absolutely wild, so amped.. tucked in deep members, High probs for 6"+ for a good chunk of NE. 24"+ odds for southeast Mass. Still 5 days away so wild to see those kinds of odds

That’s what we want to see on the ensembles at this point, no?  I know we all love to see the huge Op eye candy, but I’m somewhat happy it’s not a direct hit just yet up here, at 5 days out. That can happen in a day or two . 

[mahk_webstah]

On this past storm, there were a couple of runs 10 days out or so, maybe the GFS, that had this weekend storm slamming us. Then for a couple days, the models took everything south south south. Then the move north.

What I’m saying is I find it’s not uncommon when there’s a big storm shown in the 7 to 10 day window that sort of disappears, it sometimes comes back. Especially with the coastal storm where the set up is a bit more delicate in terms of small things having big impacts. I would say the late night model runs tonight will give us a general direction.

[cut]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

On this past storm, there were a couple of runs 10 days out or so, maybe the GFS, that had this weekend storm slamming us. Then for a couple days, the models took everything south south south. Then the move north.

What I’m saying is I find it’s not uncommon when there’s a big storm shown in the 7 to 10 day window that sort of disappears, it sometimes comes back. Especially with the coastal storm where the set up is a bit more delicate in terms of small things having big impacts. I would say the late night model runs tonight will give us a general direction.

Yah I can’t site a specific example but do recall storms sort of “blurring to nothing” in the 5 to 6 day range and coming back at day 4. Maybe 2013 blizzard did this?

[cut]

Just now, cut said:

Yah I can’t site a specific example but do recall storms sort of “blurring to nothing” in the 5 to 6 day range and coming back at day 4. Maybe 2013 blizzard did this?

Pretty sure Boxing Day did this.

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, cut said:

Yah I can’t site a specific example but do recall storms sort of “blurring to nothing” in the 5 to 6 day range and coming back at day 4. Maybe 2013 blizzard did this?

This hasn’t blurred to nothing. Look at the ensembles. The other thing is that this seems to want to come north the question is how far off the coast is it when it comes north. Check out the WPC depiction, which brings the storm north just outside of the Gulf of Maine. So if the track of this whole thing from off of the Carolinas just adjusts 100 miles west, and if it strengthens, it may curl back a bit as it gets further north. I kind of feel optimistic about this, although I hesitate to say that.

[Prismshine Productions]

Yah I can’t site a specific example but do recall storms sort of “blurring to nothing” in the 5 to 6 day range and coming back at day 4. Maybe 2013 blizzard did this?

January 4th 2018 did for South Carolina... Didn't come back in for the Midlands until like 36 hours before the storm and even then there was a nasty cutoff between where I lived in Orangeburg (5" of heavy water-logged fluff) and Columbia (zilch), a distance of only 40 miles.

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[Baroclinic Zone]

Still a lot to be determined on track for this. Gotta give this a couple more days for outliers to wane. 
06 GEFS was nice but I will not use the GFS for any winter storm with any level of confidence. Euro/EPS backed off on their 00z runs to 06z.

[cut]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

This hasn’t blurred to nothing. Look at the ensembles. The other thing is that this seems to want to come north the question is how far off the coast is it when it comes north. Check out the WPC depiction, which brings the storm north just outside of the Gulf of Maine. So if the track of this whole thing from off of the Carolinas just adjusts 100 miles west, and if it strengthens, it may curl back a bit as it gets further north. I kind of feel optimistic about this, although I hesitate to say that.

Blur to nothing actually wasn’t the proper term - brain not caffeinated yet. Let’s say ambiguous?? lol. I feel pretty optimistic. Honestly just getting a decent storm on top of the 14 or so we just got plus the 2 or 3 left from the prior one would be great. Having 3 storms worth of snow on the ground has been a while.

[Chrisrotary12]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Reminds me of Jan 4, 2018...hopefully it will close off later.

Yes. We need this thing to keep gaining latitude like that storm did. As shown, it’s an occluded mess as Scott said. 

[ineedsnow]

6z Euro not.loading past hr57 for me.. 6z EPS is out and pretty far ots

[jbenedet]

lol.

Wrt where most of us live— PWM, BOS, NY, Philly

This is about as locked and loaded as you can get at this lead time.

I found zero things to criticize 5 days out. Teles, GEFS and EPS guidance are frickin awesome.

And the persistence/side of things is great as well…

[cut]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

lol.

 

This is about as locked and loaded as you can get at this lead time.

I found zero things to criticize 5 days out. Teles, GEFS and EPS guidance are frickin awesome.

And the persistence/side of things is great as well…

Seeing this from you is a big nod to the likeliness here. Good to see.

[ORH_wxman]

We def want this closing off further north. The only mechanism that really brings the low north is the closing off of the upper low itself as it expands. So if you dig it too far south initially, it has more trouble recovering the latitude. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We def want this closing off further north. The only mechanism that really brings the low north is the closing off of the upper low itself as it expands. So if you dig it too far south initially, it has more trouble recovering the latitude. 

Definitely needs a little work, but probably not the worst spot this far out. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Ya 6z euro suite was bad . However, still 5 days out, need to tweak a few things and like Will said get this to close further north. 

[qg_omega]

18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

lol.

Wrt where most of us live— PWM, BOS, NY, Philly

This is about as locked and loaded as you can get at this lead time.

I found zero things to criticize 5 days out. Teles, GEFS and EPS guidance are frickin awesome.

And the persistence/side of things is great as well…

EPS is not good but ok

[MJO812]

I want some of this snow to melt. Its a friggin mess to park. 

Alot of friends who are teachers are complaining this morning. The snow is concrete right now.

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

EPS is not good but ok

Hes right

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We def want this closing off further north. The only mechanism that really brings the low north is the closing off of the upper low itself as it expands. So if you dig it too far south initially, it has more trouble recovering the latitude. 

Yea, my main concern with it is LBS or LBSW.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I want some of this snow to melt. Its a friggin mess to park. 

Alot of friends who are teachers are complaining this morning. The snow is concrete right now.

Brutal for me to park at work today, too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

4seasons just said that it didn’t close off early enough.  But Whatever, I just hope this one can get close enough.  

It certainly did.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, binbisso said:

I don't think we want the trough to dig to Georgia and close off. Tennessee or Kentucky would be better

We don't.