The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[Aleksey]

How likely is it to keep going East after the Euro corrected so far west? Is a west trend more likely than an east trend?


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[mclean02]

I wish i was old enough to see it !   I think Hawaii was due to the highest mountain there. 

5 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

3/13/993 had a blizzard warning in Guilford and Forsyth counties 

 

[olafminesaw]

14 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

It’d be hilarious if the storm that had a week long hype machine that induced the nastiest comments from naysayers was actually the table setter for the one that makes them regret not planning this weekend 

Right? It's actually a piece of energy leftover from last weekend's storm that swings around and becomes the northern stream energy 

[USCG RS]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I would laugh too

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4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

It’d be hilarious if the storm that had a week long hype machine that induced the nastiest comments from naysayers was actually the table setter for the one that makes them regret not planning this weekend 

 

2 minutes ago, andrew29649 said:

That same thought came to mind. The tv mets are tired and probably over fatigued from comments calling it a “bust” they will be even more conservative.

So my wife and I had this conversation this weekend. From a Risk Management point of view, Mets, OEM, Risk Management, etc made the right call. Granted, there is a lesson to be learned regarding communicating potential pit falls. That withstanding, the right call was made from a professional point of view, even though we were wrong with regard to impacts. Yet, the public is very frustrated (which to an extent is understandable). I even had some texts from associates stating that this is why preperation and risk management is useless in this country: persons who are in this profession (OEM, Meteorologists, etc) tend to be alarmists and make other persons spend money they otherwise would not have to which if they simply never prepared, they would have the money to respond when a disaster finally does take place. Then there are the comments where persons state mets simply alarm persons for the money to be injected in the economy. Now what is likely to happen is that this storm will hit, meteorologists and others will be "gun shy" and then the public becomes even more frustrated. It's a viscious cycle, especially for broadcast mets and the NWS. 

[calculus1]

5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Downside of storm being near is the long wait between models

Umm... the wait is always the same between model release times. It's not longer simply because we have a storm on the horizon.

[ecrugger]

2 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Umm... the wait is always the same between model release times. It's not longer simply because we have a storm on the horizon.

Except that a watched pot never boils.

[Justicebork]

This storm's improved performance in modeling is being fueled entirely by the banter in this thread.

[JoshM]

2 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Umm... the wait is always the same between model release times. It's not longer simply because we have a storm on the horizon.

Actually, during these events, time dilation starts happening. 

[StantonParkHoya]

Umm... the wait is always the same between model release times. It's not longer simply because we have a storm on the horizon.

Technically I realize that, but if the storm is 278 hours away, hr 6 of the next run gets there quicker


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[wake4est]

During the lull, I just want to say how epic the 18z suite was. 

[Buddy1987]

Very early on NAM seems to want to kink things some southwestward. Out to 36 so we’ll see what happens 

[Prismshine Productions]

Never thought I would get this chance again back here in the Southeast Sanctum...

Nammer through 39: 500mb energy and ridge axis slightly west of 18z

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[CaryWx]

2 minutes ago, wake4est said:

During the lull, I just want to say how epic the 18z suite was. 

A thing of beauty is a joy for ever.

                               -John Keats

[85snowline]

49 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

We had a blizzard warning for 2000 mega storm that dropped almost 30" in Raleigh 

I lived in Charlotte during that one and had 9” in NoDa. 5 miles south of me the totals were well over a foot! That was an awesome storm!

[cbmclean]

27 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

3/13/993 had a blizzard warning in Guilford and Forsyth counties 

So its been over 1000 years!!

[Prismshine Productions]

Nammer through 45: less confluence over New England, this will be west of 18z

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[CentralNC]

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So its been over 1000 years!!

Sorry about that...1993

[wncsnow]

NAM about to drop the hammer. 

[StantonParkHoya]

We might need to pump the brakes on the NW trend


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[Buddy1987]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Nammer through 45: less confluence over New England, this will be west of 18z

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Just now, wncsnow said:

NAM about to drop the hammer. 

Yea at 48 the trend is continuing big time here. Really like what I’m seeing thus far. Agree with you guys.

[Blacksburg Coach]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

This has been the most fun I’ve had in the forum in years. Good or bad, enjoying the ride. Hope all of yall stick around and shoot the bull this summer!

I was just thinking the same thing. I haven't been involved this much since the accuweather forums. 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We might need to pump the brakes on the NW trend


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Speak for yourself 

[Tony Sisk]

22 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

This storm's improved performance in modeling is being fueled entirely by the banter in this thread.

Power of the tongue…uh fingers!

[Blacksburg Coach]

1 hour ago, SUNYGRAD said:

Oneonta back in mid 80s

Friend/ Teammate from college back in WV is now the head baseball coach there. Go Dragons!

[Buddy1987]

Pretty significant changes from 18z to 0z on the NAM at 54. Much more similar to GFS. Trough starting to go toward the neutral side and heights rising in the northeast. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Hr60 vs 18z 66

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[BornAgain13]

@wncsnowgot a pic of the weathernext?

[BooneWX]

Weathernext is stuck. Too many weenies on the server. 

[BornAgain13]

A lot of folks about to get NAM'd

[CaryWx]

11 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We might need to pump the brakes on the NW trend


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Worries me too if these jumps continue at that rate.