February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea lol. If wouldn't surprise me at all if the ridge connection happens for like... 3 days... before a trough digs right back in. I see nothing about this pattern that says it's going to morph into extended warmth/shutout. 

Yep, both ai and nwp euro ens show brief connection then right back to cold. We don’t even go AN that much on the “warmest” day, and 11-15 day forecasts have still been biased too warm

[frd]

Crack 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

 

 

[GreyHat]

50 minutes ago, das said:

It would have to be a prodigious rainer with high DP's.  0.50" rain at 37ºF will hardly make a dent in the glacier above and below the ground.

Yeah, but could cause severe flooding for people's basement and streams.

[Blizzard of 93]

12z EPS & AI EPS both end with good looks on day 15.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

12z EPS & AI EPS both end with good looks on day 15.

And that’s not a suppressive look like we have now. Still a pna ridge but not so tall that it pushes storms so far south

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

12z EPS & AI EPS both end with good looks on day 15.

AIFS is money. Wow!

[Blizzard of 93]

The latest Euro Weeklies today show the workable pattern continuing in week 3 and 4 through the end of February.

[psuhoffman]

Just sayin 

Day 15 EPS

snowiest February’s of the last 50 years 

and yes the pac is different because almost all those examples were ninos and a central pac ridge makes it unlikely to get blocking , that loading pattern actually correlates with a +AO. But we do have the blocking. What matters most is the N American long wave pattern is identical  

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just sayin 

Day 15 EPS

snowiest February’s of the last 50 years 

and yes the pac is different because almost all those examples were ninos and a central pac ridge makes it unlikely to get blocking , that loading pattern actually correlates with a +AO. But we do have the blocking. What matters most is the N American long wave pattern is identical  

Problem is that pac will just blast us with warm upper levels. And this amazing arctic air will be wated again. One of the best arctic outbreaks in my 57 years of life is going to end up completely wasted. Rough hobby man. 

Edit: And another reason I am looking forward to a Nino next year. Yes we will get tainted constantly. But we will be wet. Just need to time up some cold air and we get the goods. I am done tracking Nina winters. They are a clownshow in the Mid Atlantic. We either get a record breaking storm. Or sit here at sunny and 19 degrees while the Carolinas get smashed. 

[psuhoffman]

Feb 2006 and March 2018 prove if you have blocking the central pac isnt as important. The issue is it’s rare to get extreme blocking in that pacific pattern. Usually that pacific is destructive to blocking. But this year it doesn’t seem to matter. I’ll take the rare win. 

[Nomz]

I like your funny words magic man

[clskinsfan]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Feb 2006 and March 2018 prove if you have blocking the central pac isnt as important. The issue is it’s rare to get extreme blocking in that pacific pattern. Usually that pacific is destructive to blocking. But this year it doesn’t seem to matter. I’ll take the rare win. 

You will take the rare win until it isn't a win because it is rare. Done with rare. Time to get blasted with Nino precip and see what happens. I'd bet a fortune we do way better. 

[TSSN+]

18z Nam looks good. I’m in, till euro shows 0 then I’m back out. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

You will take the rare win until it isn't a win because it is rare. Done with rare. Time to get blasted with Nino precip and see what happens. I'd bet a fortune we do way better. 

We have a cold enso. That’s not negotiable. I’m working within the reality we have. We’ve had snowy months in a cold enso before. It’s not impossible.  And you holding out for a Nino is silly when we have no idea yet if it will even be a favorable type of Nino. And we know the QBO and solar are unlikely to be good.  We could very well end up with a Nino like 1973, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2007, 2019, 2024. Not every Nino is above normal snow…only about half are and early indication are the next Nino might have more characteristics of the less snowy variety so now you’re waiting for what…the next Nino…4-5 years from now.  Ok have fun.  I’ll take my chances on getting a good snowstorm out of what’s a damn good pattern coming up. Yea it’s not a Nino. If it was it would be perfect.  But you act like we can’t snow outside a Nino.   

 

[Blizzard of 93]

The next 30 days on today’s Euro Weeklies shows plenty of cold air available & plenty of precip. 
We should have some chances to score this month if this is close to right.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The next 30 days on today’s Euro Weeklies shows plenty of cold air available & plenty of precip. 
We should have some chances to score this month.

It’s not a Nino. Pack it up. Better luck next year. 

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We have a cold enso. That’s not negotiable. I’m working within the reality we have. We’ve had snowy months in a cold enso before. It’s not impossible.  And you holding out for a Nino is silly when we have no idea yet if it will even be a favorable type of Nino. And we know the QBO and solar are unlikely to be good.  We could very well end up with a Nino like 1973, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2007, 2019, 2024. Not every Nino is above normal snow…only about half are and early indication are the next Nino might have more characteristics of the less snowy variety so now you’re waiting for what…the next Nino…4-5 years from now.  Ok have fun.  I’ll take my chances on getting a good snowstorm out of what’s a damn good pattern coming up. Yea it’s not a Nino. If it was it would be perfect.  But you act like we can’t snow outside a Nino.   

 

Just being honest with you PSU. I really don't care about if its a favorable Nino or not. This is 7 years of utter failure here. What i do know is a Nino will bring precip duringvte winter. I will take my chances on what that precip type is. Bet its better than the past 7 years of clownshow though. 

And I know this is an imby take. So what. I honestly don't care if DC and BWI are getting ripped with heavy rain while we score out here. Used to care a decade ago. Not any more. This is an imby sport. Is what it is. 

[LordBaltimore]

I'll take a nina every time. 12" of snow that's a puddle the next day < 2" that sticks around. The only time it's ever worth it is for the 2016 type 2 foot storms but that's a huge gamble. 

[TowsonWeather]

4 hours ago, snowfan said:

Lol…now you’re just making things up. You do recall that not only did many get 6+ before the flip to sleet last Sunday, a good chunk of the area had a 6-12 powder hit last January, too. 

1. The last storm WAS majority sleet - both by duration and by QPF. Is that not clear to you?

2. Several Charlotte suburbs have gotten more snow (already) from this storm than I've gotten IMBY in Towson in a DECADE. So please, spare me the "some parts have the region have gotten ___ inches of sweet powder" nonsense. If Southern MD and Northern VA get smacked, I'm happy for them - but that doesn't change the reality for a huge portion of this board. 

[stormy]

2 hours ago, das said:

It would have to be a prodigious rainer with high DP's.  0.50" rain at 37ºF will hardly make a dent in the glacier above and below the ground.

Thank You very much for your great wisdom!!    IMO, 2" of QP over a 48 hr. period with surface temperatures above 40 would be required to remove the iceberg.

That ain't goin to happen.......................  We will gradually sweat away during February unless topped off by JI.........................

[snowfan]

9 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

1. The last storm WAS majority sleet - both by duration and by QPF. Is that not clear to you?

2. Several Charlotte suburbs have gotten more snow (already) from this storm than I've gotten IMBY in Towson in a DECADE. So please, spare me the "some parts have the region have gotten ___ inches of sweet powder" nonsense. If Southern MD and Northern VA get smacked, I'm happy for them - but that doesn't change the reality for a huge portion of this board. 

Dude.....its snow. Its not that serious. Certainly doesnt warrant anything like.....spare me the....lol. don't take things so seriously and just enjoy life. 

Also, based on the distribution of this subs membership, last January's 6-12 DID hit thr majority of this board.

 

[Ji]

It’s not a Nino. Pack it up. Better luck next year. 

So you are saying we will have 2 disaster Ninos in a row? I feel like next year will be colder than 23/24. When was the last time we had two disasters in a row?

[Ji]

Just being honest with you PSU. I really don't care about if its a favorable Nino or not. This is 7 years of utter failure here. What i do know is a Nino will bring precip duringvte winter. I will take my chances on what that precip type is. Bet its better than the past 7 years of clownshow though. 
And I know this is an imby take. So what. I honestly don't care if DC and BWI are getting ripped with heavy rain while we score out here. Used to care a decade ago. Not any more. This is an imby sport. Is what it is. 

Nino is n and west revenge. Psu will be fine

[dallen7908]

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just sayin 

Day 15 EPS

snowiest February’s of the last 50 years 

and yes the pac is different because almost all those examples were ninos and a central pac ridge makes it unlikely to get blocking , that loading pattern actually correlates with a +AO. But we do have the blocking. What matters most is the N American long wave pattern is identical  

Wow that Pacific couldn't be more different.  It'll be an interesting test.  I took a Quick Look back at February 2006, the February that looks most similar to this year - Temperatures were slightly above average with one big snow

https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/baltimore/year-2006#february

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Just being honest with you PSU. I really don't care about if its a favorable Nino or not. This is 7 years of utter failure here. What i do know is a Nino will bring precip duringvte winter. I will take my chances on what that precip type is. Bet its better than the past 7 years of clownshow though. 

And I know this is an imby take. So what. I honestly don't care if DC and BWI are getting ripped with heavy rain while we score out here. Used to care a decade ago. Not any more. This is an imby sport. Is what it is. 

Sorry I was being a bit facetious. But we did have 2 ninos and 2 enso neutral winters in this 9 year snow drought we are in. None of them did us any good. The issue we’ve had is more PDO related than enso. At the moment the PDO has chilled out and isn’t killing us. We might fail. We could get a big storm.  But I see signs we might be breaking out of what’s been the biggest issue the last 9 years. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Wow that Pacific couldn't be more different.  It'll be an interesting test.  I took a Quick Look back at February 2006, the February that looks most similar to this year - Temperatures were slightly above average with one big snow

https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/baltimore/year-2006#february

We entered that month with a torched North America so we have some advantages. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

So you are saying we will have 2 disaster Ninos in a row? I feel like next year will be colder than 23/24. When was the last time we had two disasters in a row?

I’m saying I don’t know but only about half of ninos are snowy so kicking the whole rest is this winter when we have a -AO to wait for a Nino seems weird to me. 

[bncho]

@psuhoffman

correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t a +qbo Nino better than a -qbo Nino? I don’t see anything that would suggest a -qbo next year, could you provide some insight into what you’re seeing?

[Terpeast]

Halfway through this winter and a 4th night in a row in the single digits with snowbanks as high as 5-6 feet, I am actually the most optimistic in a long time about the future of our winters.

This winter and last winter, we have had a lot of cold and we’ve seen snowstorms to the south of us, and these aren’t winters that were supposed to be favorable going in. I know we’re jealous of Charlotte right now, but hear me out.

Growing up here, I’ve seen plenty of misses to the south and bitter cold like this. I’ve seen both stretches of frustrating winters and blizzard bonanzas. We’re also in the middle of a long term drought.

None of this is new. It’s as familiar as when I was in grade school. When (not if) the drought breaks and we get another winter where favorable patterns set in, we will get hit again… and hard. I guarantee it.