February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[NorthArlington101]

Feb 4-6 is looking more like a minor event, hope we can tap into that. Otherwise Feb 11-14 looks like something with more moisture to work with. 

I’ve got a very minor surgery and my girlfriend has a flight out on the 12. I’d lock that one in.

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is pretty striking. retrograding block and a legit 50/50 in place... vort over the Four Corners is making its way under the block

Yeah. My WAG is we will get hit with something when the pattern relaxes. Still gonna need timing though. 

[T. August]

27 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Pattern is just so dry…gotta find a way to get next week to turn into a minor event like BChill said. Would really be a waste to not get at least a stat padder/snow topper out of this Arctic pattern.

For me personally, if we get a 1-3” event before the pack fully melts, then a bigger 4-8” storm to usher in the next cold shot, this winter would be an A+.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ve got a very minor surgery and my girlfriend has a flight out on the 12. I’d lock that one in.

I hope your flight gets cancelled and your lengthening surgery delayed because of 1-2 feet and blowing and drifting snow. 

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Feb 4-6 is looking more like a minor event, hope we can tap into that. Otherwise Feb 11-14 looks like something with more moisture to work with. 

You’re a minor event! 

[NorthArlington101]

I hope your flight gets cancelled and your lengthening surgery delayed because of 1-2 feet and blowing and drifting snow. 

Me too! Especially because I won’t be able to walk in the snow after the leg lengthening surgery

[Heisy]

[Warm Nose]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ve got a very minor surgery and my girlfriend has a flight out on the 12. I’d lock that one in.

I wouldn't call penis enhancement minor, but that's just me.

[ravensrule]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ve got a very minor surgery and my girlfriend has a flight out on the 12. I’d lock that one in.

Are those two things related to each other?. 

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Me too! Especially because I won’t be able to walk in the snow after the leg lengthening surgery

Middle one?. 

[snowfan]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Me too! Especially because I won’t be able to walk in the snow after the leg lengthening surgery

 

2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

I wouldn't call penis enhancement minor, but that's just me.

 

Just now, ravensrule said:

Middle one?. 

We need another storm stat!

[H2O]

so much for looking at this thread for info 

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Unfortunately that seems to be what we're looking at cold and dry. At least next week being in the mid 30s will help melt this ice we have. MD2 in Arnold has had bobcats digging one of the lanes out around College Parkway. There are only 2 lanes.

Boy, do I miss driving on Ritchie Highway.....NOT!

 

[stormy]

1 hour ago, TowsonWeather said:

I suspect a more compelling response would have been to reply to the substance of his post (and the glaringly different model loops). 

You went with “ignore that substance and say ‘I always tell the truth’l instead.

A bold choice, lol.

Thanks,  I prefer to get along with everyone, but I don't buy into a belief because of popular frenetic clamor as we often witness.

The Euro is without doubt the most reliable model, but, it is far from perfect.  A highly intelligent person would say, Euro is number 1 but the GFS is a close number 2.

AI gives a 60 - 70% verification for both.

I constantly read on this site that the GFS should be retired, banned or otherwise thrown in the trash because of how inferior it is.  That is simply not true by intelligent persons.

As Jerry Lund used to say, the lunatic fringe is out of control.

[Cobalt]

7 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Modest lp close by with temps in the 20s. If only this could be locked in

[bncho]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

What kind of snowfall is that spitting out Heisy?

looks like about 5-10”, look at the QPF map above 

[stormtracker]

hmm

[stormtracker]

Nice, we lose thermals.  Surface wise anyway. Obviously

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

looks like about 5-10”, look at the QPF map above 

Yeah. I deleted my post as it popped up as soon as I made it.

[stormtracker]

Actually, not too bad

[stormtracker]

Congrats Carolinas.

[mitchnick]

[stormtracker]

Whatever, I'll move north or south.  Congrats @mitchnick

[snowfan]

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, snowfan said:

Euro said no so I gotta stick with that until proven otherwise, lol

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Whatever, I'll move north or south.  Congrats @mitchnick

You'll do anything to push it south. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Euro said no so I gotta stick with that until proven otherwise, lol

The Euro AI has had it for multiple runs. That's all that matters right now.

[Chris78]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Actually, not too bad

No doubt will get the north trend that we dearly needed this weekend lol.

 

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Ah, a more classic fall line storm. Would hurt to risk raining in D.C. the second precip moves into the area again, but it's refreshing to see something "normal"

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

No doubt will get the north trend that we dearly needed this weekend lol.

 

There's a whole lot of blocking to the north thanks to the -AO. I wouldn't count on much, if any. It could even be pushed south because of it....too far south that is.