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OBS: 1/25-26 Snow/Sleet


jm1220
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1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Mixing in is different from so warm at all levels that it's definitely sleet, the warmth has been marginal all day. Also the NAM had mixing on several runs to near I84 which didn't seem to come close. 

Pivotal weather showed pink briefly up to 84. Later runs showed it further south. And I know melted flakes (indicating a warm layer) were observed in Sussex and Putnam. I'd love to see actual balloon soundings to compare to model forecast soundings. That's the only way we can really assess the model performance. Pivotal weather's ptype graphics are a bit of a black box.

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Crazy bust by all models on the surface temps. Most had my area getting to around 30/32 at 11 pm. It’s currently 22!
 

10 degree short term model bust by all mesos. Doesn’t matter for shit, but still a lesson to be learned when it comes to surface temps in a SWFE, always over estimated 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Crazy bust by all models on the surface temps. Most had my area getting to around 30/32 at 11 pm. It’s currently 22!
 

10 degree short term model bust by all mesos. Doesn’t matter for shit, but still a lesson to be learned when it comes to surface temps in a SWFE, always over estimated 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was supposed to be above freezing by like 1-2pm and stay there until midnight. I only went above 32 at 5ish and was back below by 7:30p. 

26 now and steadily falling. 

Also only had about an hour of actual rain, the rest was accumulating frozen precip. Storm was a crazy positive bust IMBY with respect to winter weather. 

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1 hour ago, chrisNJ said:

Looking back on Pivotal Id say Euro and RGem. Nam was trash. 

That's just crazy. The Euro and RGEM were showing 10+ for DCA and Philly for days. The RGEM and Euro had Morris County as all-snow for this event on their runs this morning!! It's been sleet or a mix for 9 hours!!! 

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