MANDA Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Nibor said: Mix line seemingly established and barely moving. There were several SR models that showed the mix / change line flirting with or getting just north of I80 then retreating. Looks like that is what is happening. That is something the NAM did not show. The NAM surged the warm nose well north into Rockland and Westchester it looks to be retreating now. The flaw with the NAM was the northward extent of the mix. Windy here now with light to sometimes moderate snow. Change / mix with sleet here was 30 minutes. I would not expect it to move back north at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Wind is really starting to pick up too, few good gusts over the past 30 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I got 8.5” here in Nutley. Mix line looks to be over my house. Hoping for a flip back to snow soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looking like the CT coast and Westchester north of Yonkers won’t mix at least until the vast majority of precip is over. Still bouncing between mostly sleet and mostly snow mix here. More snow at the moment. Crappy flakes but enough that viz is down to about 1/4 mile. Maybe a few survived a trip through the warm nose, but I think most of the snow is forming below 800mb. Not quite snizzle, but very fine and a lot of them and it is definitely accumulating. The temperature which was steadily rising all day reached 21, but that has reversed and we are now a hair under 20. North of the sound is looking very good, even if they get a little mix soon right along the shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 15 minutes ago, eduggs said: No. I have been confident about warning snow everywhere. I've also been confident about Putnam/Orange getting 12" plus. I've said numerous times I thought the battleground for double digits would be across southern Westchester extended east and west. This morning appeared to overperform either ratios or QPF. But the progression of the mix line played out very similarly to how the NAM depicted going back several days. 11-12" here in Somerset County...that's with almost 3 hours of sleet/freezing rain...the thump was real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Crashing r/s line in WV and sw Penn rn. The primary is losing steam to the coastal rn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Stop complaining. Its a beautiful storm. We haven't had this much snow in years and especially with temps in the teens. Enjoy it I'm not complaining. As I've mentioned, I've spent most of the day outside enjoying the snow. I'm defending the viewpoint that the NAM and its successor the RRFS did very well with this storm. It's discouraging that people have come to believe that 3rd party vendor clown maps represent the actual output of the weather models. This idea needs to be challenged so that it is dislodged from the collective understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Mix line with a big bump south now. Almost on the north shore again. Sleet/snow mix here now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Back to snow never completely sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Visibility reduced again in southern Manhattan... probably a sleet and snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, eduggs said: I'm not complaining. As I've mentioned, I've spent most of the day outside enjoying the snow. I'm defending the viewpoint that the NAM and its successor the RRFS did very well with this storm. It's discouraging that people have come to believe that 3rd party vendor clown maps represent the actual output of the weather models. This idea needs to be challenged so that it is dislodged from the collective understanding. Nam was low with the snowfall amounts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Jeff Smith posted this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6° w/ moderate snow 12" otg 6-8" additional is possible this afternoon & evening 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Back to snow here. For those wondering,there is a trail of moisture that's gonna train over the area later. Will it be snow or ice or both.?? Accumulations continue folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The sleet line is definitely trying to push back south now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Some mangled flakes mixing back in here. Very cool storm from a dynamics standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Might be premature but I could see the mix line retreat a bit in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Montauk is getting raked right now. Mix line is approaching them: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Mostly snow now in UWS, not hearing the sound of the pingers on my window nearly as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 My snowboard had 8.8” on it before I cleared it. I expect another 2”-4” of snow/sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 12 minutes ago, eduggs said: Sleet briefly made it to Rockland and will probably mix in pretty far north as the dryslot approaches. The CMC and UK showed several runs where the mix line stayed south of the metro entirely. Even this afternoon's runs may not have mixed at all. Terrible! There has been no sleet in Rockland. I live 2 miles North of 287/87 near the Palisades and it’s been all snow all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Im not gonna fathom what my totals might be if it truly can stay snow going forward Officially over a foot here with moderate snow currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 7 minutes ago, MANDA said: There were several SR models that showed the mix / change line flirting with or getting just north of I80 then retreating. Looks like that is what is happening. That is something the NAM did not show. The NAM surged the warm nose well north into Rockland and Westchester it looks to be retreating now. The flaw with the NAM was the northward extent of the mix. Windy here now with light to sometimes moderate snow. Change / mix with sleet here was 30 minutes. I would not expect it to move back north at this point. Remember that Pivotal or TT clown maps show the ptype colors based on model output and a ptype algorithm. If sleet is shown on Pivotal that doesn't mean the model precludes a mix of snow and sleet south of that line. And yes the HRRR has done a good job of sagging the mix line south. It also has the benefit of being run every hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Honestly hard to tell sometimes if it's sleet or snow, i'm not hearing much pingling but the flakes look very tiny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Measured about 10 inches here in New Providence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 NAM was way too aggressive up here with the sleet. Sorry. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Honestly hard to tell sometimes if it's sleet or snow, i'm not hearing much pingling but the flakes look very tiny. I was thinking same thing but realized it now in fact snow and it’s coming down pretty hard, it’s just really fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Sleet mixing in here now with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, snywx said: 6° w/ moderate snow 12" otg 6-8" additional is possible this afternoon & evening Yeah looks sweet for several more hours. Enjoy! Shame about the dryslot... hopefully there is some wraparound tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Visibility has reduced further. Mostly snow in Battery Park City. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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