OBS: 1/25-26 Snow/Sleet

[MANDA]

Just now, Nibor said:

Mix line seemingly established and barely moving.

There were several SR models that showed the mix / change line flirting with or getting just north of I80 then retreating.  Looks like that is what is happening.  That is something the NAM did not show.  The NAM surged the warm nose well north into Rockland and Westchester it looks to be retreating now.  The flaw with the NAM was the northward extent of the mix.  Windy here now with light to sometimes moderate snow.  Change / mix with sleet here was 30 minutes.  I would not expect it to move back north at this point.

[Joe4alb]

Wind is really starting to pick up too, few good gusts over the past 30 min.

[Yanksfan]

I got 8.5” here in Nutley. Mix line looks to be over my house. Hoping for a flip back to snow soon.

[NorthShoreWx]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looking like the CT coast and Westchester north of Yonkers won’t mix at least until the vast majority of precip is over. 

Still bouncing between mostly sleet and mostly snow mix here.  More snow at the moment.  Crappy flakes but enough that viz is down to about 1/4 mile.  Maybe a few survived a trip through the warm nose, but I think most of the snow is forming below 800mb.  Not quite snizzle, but very fine and a lot of them and it is definitely accumulating.  The temperature which was steadily rising all day reached 21, but that has reversed and we are now a hair under 20.

North of the sound is looking very good, even if they get a little mix soon right along the shore.

[Poker2015]

15 minutes ago, eduggs said:

No. I have been confident about warning snow everywhere. I've also been confident about Putnam/Orange getting 12" plus. I've said numerous times I thought the battleground for double digits would be across southern Westchester extended east and west. This morning appeared to overperform either ratios or QPF. But the progression of the mix line played out very similarly to how the NAM depicted going back several days.

11-12" here in Somerset County...that's with almost 3 hours of sleet/freezing rain...the thump was real

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Crashing r/s line in WV and sw Penn rn. The primary is losing steam to the coastal rn.

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Stop complaining.  Its a beautiful storm. We haven't had this much snow in years and especially with temps in the teens. 

Enjoy it

I'm not complaining. As I've mentioned, I've spent most of the day outside enjoying the snow. I'm defending the viewpoint that the NAM and its successor the RRFS did very well with this storm. It's discouraging that people have come to believe that 3rd party vendor clown maps represent the actual output of the weather models. This idea needs to be challenged so that it is dislodged from the collective understanding. 

[psv88]

Mix line with a big bump south now. Almost on the north shore again. Sleet/snow mix here now

[binbisso]

Back to snow never completely sleet

[Metasequoia]

Visibility reduced again in southern Manhattan... probably a sleet and snow mix.

[MJO812]

Just now, eduggs said:

I'm not complaining. As I've mentioned, I've spent most of the day outside enjoying the snow. I'm defending the viewpoint that the NAM and its successor the RRFS did very well with this storm. It's discouraging that people have come to believe that 3rd party vendor clown maps represent the actual output of the weather models. This idea needs to be challenged so that it is dislodged from the collective understanding. 

Nam was low with the snowfall amounts 

[MJO812]

Jeff Smith posted this

[snywx]

6° w/ moderate snow 

12" otg 

 

6-8" additional is possible this afternoon & evening 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Back to snow here. For those wondering,there is a trail of moisture that's gonna train over the area later. Will it be snow or ice or both.?? Accumulations continue folks.

[ag3]

The sleet line is definitely trying to push back south now.

[mob1]

Some mangled flakes mixing back in here. Very cool storm from a dynamics standpoint. 

[Nibor]

Might be premature but I could see the mix line retreat a bit in the next hour.

[NorthShoreWx]

Montauk is getting raked right now.  Mix line is approaching them:

 

[ILoveWinter]

Mostly snow now in UWS, not hearing the sound of the pingers on my window nearly as much 

[ag3]

My snowboard had 8.8” on it before I cleared it. I expect another 2”-4” of snow/sleet mix.

[NJwx85]

12 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Sleet briefly made it to Rockland and will probably mix in pretty far north as the dryslot approaches. The CMC and UK showed several runs where the mix line stayed south of the metro entirely. Even this afternoon's runs may not have mixed at all. Terrible! 

There has been no sleet in Rockland. I live 2 miles North of 287/87 near the Palisades and it’s been all snow all day.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Im not gonna fathom what my totals might be if it truly can stay snow going forward Officially over a foot here with moderate snow currently.

[eduggs]

7 minutes ago, MANDA said:

There were several SR models that showed the mix / change line flirting with or getting just north of I80 then retreating.  Looks like that is what is happening.  That is something the NAM did not show.  The NAM surged the warm nose well north into Rockland and Westchester it looks to be retreating now.  The flaw with the NAM was the northward extent of the mix.  Windy here now with light to sometimes moderate snow.  Change / mix with sleet here was 30 minutes.  I would not expect it to move back north at this point.

Remember that Pivotal or TT clown maps show the ptype colors based on model output and a ptype algorithm. If sleet is shown on Pivotal that doesn't mean the model precludes a mix of snow and sleet south of that line. And yes the HRRR has done a good job of sagging the mix line south. It also has the benefit of being run every hour.

[Winterweatherlover]

Honestly hard to tell sometimes if it's sleet or snow, i'm not hearing much pingling but the flakes look very tiny.

[Cyg]

Measured about 10 inches here in New Providence.

[BxEngine]

NAM was way too aggressive up here with the sleet. Sorry. 

[ILoveWinter]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Honestly hard to tell sometimes if it's sleet or snow, i'm not hearing much pingling but the flakes look very tiny.

I was thinking same thing but realized it now in fact snow and it’s coming down pretty hard, it’s just really fine.

[OrangeCTWX]

Sleet mixing in here now with the snow.

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, snywx said:

6° w/ moderate snow 

12" otg 

 

6-8" additional is possible this afternoon & evening 

Yeah looks sweet for several more hours. Enjoy! Shame about the dryslot... hopefully there is some wraparound tomorrow morning.

[Metasequoia]

Visibility has reduced further. Mostly snow in Battery Park City.