eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I was out on a ski tour for several hours. The snow is much denser than I would have expected. It was fluffy before 9am and then increasingly dense. I don't think ratios have been great since this morning. After 12pm I began noticing melted flakes foretelling mid-level warming. It's been going back and forth between various combinations of snow and sleet since 1:45. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups21 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Heard some brief pinging NENJ but seems to have stopped. Seems like a foot plus out there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Haven't checked. But has the winter cancelled thread been busy? 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 8 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Where are the Debbie downers now? Solid forecast by Upton. After they shaved back like 5 or 6 times. They had all of LI and NYC in the 12-18" range(specifically around 12-15 from NYC-Suffolk) and slowly cut back update after update. I never went higher than 8-12 there from the jump -about 72hrs out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Hats off to the NAM model on the sleet timing. It won again. If it was a little light on the QPF before the mix, most guidance was. Now let's cool the mid-levels and flip back to all snow. Radar looks amazing for the Hudson Valley region! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: After they shaved back like 5 or 6 times. They had all of LI and NYC in the 12-18" range(specifically around 12-15 from NYC-Suffolk) and slowly cut back update after update. I never went higher than 8-12 there from the jump -about 72hrs out. Yep, I never saw anything to support 15" here. I guess they leaned on the NBM and GFS from 3 days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Nibor said: Double barrel action. The coastal is trying to get itself going. But the low in ga is a wild card.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCPOW Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Back to snow here in ardsley. if we can keep this up, we should be well over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I’m well over a foot already. Probably going to finish close to 20”. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, eduggs said: Hats off to the NAM model on the sleet timing. It won again. If it was a little light on the QPF before the mix, most guidance was. Now let's cool the mid-levels and flip back to all snow. Radar looks amazing for the Hudson Valley region! Blizzard like right now without the high winds, which I'm not a fan of anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What a mess Used to hate that when I was a kid and we had on street parking. Digging out the car was an absolute pain in the arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Yep, I never saw anything to support 15" here. I guess they leaned on the NBM and GFS from 3 days ago? The NBM is gospel, whatever you see that as, that's what theyll go then adjust up or down a bit from there. I knew when the NBM was throwing out big numbers they were going to go big there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Ewr has .91 liquid so I'd imagine around 10" before the flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Double barrel action. The coastal is trying to get itself going. But the low in ga is a wild card.? The only lows that matter are the one over West Virginia and the one off the coast of the Delmarva. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: Hats off to the NAM model on the sleet timing. It won again. If it was a little light on the QPF before the mix, most guidance was. Now let's cool the mid-levels and flip back to all snow. Radar looks amazing for the Hudson Valley region! It's a bit misleading as the snow moved in early so the entire progression of the storm started earlier and any changeover should therefore be calculated accordingly. That's why it missed the totals the way it did, other models had the duration of snow (8-10 hours) depicted far better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 52 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: 8.0" as of 2 pm, so no 2"/hour so far, but 1.5"/hour ain't bad (3" in the past 2 hours). Still violently regurgitating snow here at 2:20 pm 17.6°/dp 15.7° Praying you get projectile vomiting of snow soon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I’m well over a foot already. Probably going to finish close to 20”. yes sir I did not measure but I did indeed clear my driveway and there is over 12 there for sure ,,,wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Back to snow and sleet here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: Hats off to the NAM model on the sleet timing. It won again. If it was a little light on the QPF before the mix, most guidance was. Now let's cool the mid-levels and flip back to all snow. Radar looks amazing for the Hudson Valley region! Wrong. It had 2-3” in areas that got 10”. it was the worst model for snowfall totals. Enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 10 minutes ago, TJW014 said: Transitioning to freezing rain. 6" OTG. Where are you located again? I have way more than that, I had six around 930ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: Hats off to the NAM model on the sleet timing. It won again. If it was a little light on the QPF before the mix, most guidance was. Now let's cool the mid-levels and flip back to all snow. Radar looks amazing for the Hudson Valley region! Ehh the NAM was not that good with this storm, as another poster mentioned the whole storm as often happens progressed quicker but the NAM had much less snow before the sleet than what actually happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Heading back out to clear sidewalks again. Easily another 3 plus inches where I cleared earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 18 minutes ago, psv88 said: So I guess Islip had over 9” before change to sleet. Solid forecast by Upton ignoring the NAM The NAM was the first model to bring sleet to our area and eventually most of NNJ and southern Westchester. Eventually all other guidance followed suit. It was the earliest to mix today and it was RIGHT. All other guidance was WRONG. PIVOTAL CLOWN MAPS DO NOT EQUAL THE NAM FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION. People seem to be clueless about interpreting model output. UK, GFS, Euro were way too late and south with the mix line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 9.5 inches here with about .5 of that as sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 dry slot it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 This will be one of the most impressive long lasting snowpacks we've had in years. Even if we don't add to it it'll need to reach the 40s to get anything to melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 It’s tough to get a real read on it but I’m guessing 8-10 inches here in town of Babylon. Shoveling a bitch as usual but very powdery snow unfortunately of no use to my kids yet but was fairly easy to push around for me. Definitely all sleet now for a good half-hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 If you believed the global models from 36 hours ago... ECM, UK, GFS, ICON, CMC - all of them - you would think it should be all-snow throughout the NYC area right now. The NAM is just really good at sniffing these out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, weathermedic said: 9.5 inches here with about .5 of that as sleet You should be able to piece together enough for double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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