OBS: 1/25-26 Snow/Sleet

[eduggs]

I was out on a ski tour for several hours. The snow is much denser than I would have expected. It was fluffy before 9am and then increasingly dense. I don't think ratios have been great since this morning. After 12pm I began noticing melted flakes foretelling mid-level warming. It's been going back and forth between various combinations of snow and sleet since 1:45.

[GregRups21]

Heard some brief pinging NENJ but seems to have stopped. Seems like a foot plus out there


.

[sussexcountyobs]

Haven't checked. But has the winter cancelled thread been busy?

[Nibor]

[The 4 Seasons]

8 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Where are the Debbie downers now?  Solid forecast by Upton.  

After they shaved back like 5 or 6 times. They had all of LI and NYC in the 12-18" range(specifically around 12-15 from NYC-Suffolk) and slowly cut back update after update. I never went higher than 8-12 there from the jump -about 72hrs out. 

[eduggs]

Hats off to the NAM model on the sleet timing. It won again. If it was a little light on the QPF before the mix, most guidance was. Now let's cool the mid-levels and flip back to all snow. Radar looks amazing for the Hudson Valley region!

[jm1220]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

After they shaved back like 5 or 6 times. They had all of LI and NYC in the 12-18" range(specifically around 12-15 from NYC-Suffolk) and slowly cut back update after update. I never went higher than 8-12 there from the jump -about 72hrs out. 

Yep, I never saw anything to support 15" here. I guess they leaned on the NBM and GFS from 3 days ago?

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, Nibor said:

Double barrel action. The coastal is trying to get itself going. But the low in ga is a wild card.?

[NCPOW]

Back to snow here in ardsley. if we can keep this up, we should be well over a foot.

[NJwx85]

I’m well over a foot already. Probably going to finish close to 20”.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Hats off to the NAM model on the sleet timing. It won again. If it was a little light on the QPF before the mix, most guidance was. Now let's cool the mid-levels and flip back to all snow. Radar looks amazing for the Hudson Valley region!

Blizzard like right now without the high winds, which I'm not a fan of anyway. 

[MANDA]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What a mess

Used to hate that when I was a kid and we had on street parking.  Digging out the car was an absolute pain in the arse.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, I never saw anything to support 15" here. I guess they leaned on the NBM and GFS from 3 days ago?

The NBM is gospel, whatever you see that as, that's what theyll go then adjust up or down a bit from there. I knew when the NBM was throwing out big numbers they were going to go big there. 

[Stormlover74]

Ewr has .91 liquid so I'd imagine around 10" before the flip

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Double barrel action. The coastal is trying to get itself going. But the low in ga is a wild card.?

The only lows that matter are the one over West Virginia and the one off the coast of the Delmarva.

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Hats off to the NAM model on the sleet timing. It won again. If it was a little light on the QPF before the mix, most guidance was. Now let's cool the mid-levels and flip back to all snow. Radar looks amazing for the Hudson Valley region!

It's a bit misleading as the snow moved in early so the entire progression of the storm started earlier and any changeover should therefore be calculated accordingly. 

That's why it missed the totals the way it did, other models had the duration of snow (8-10 hours) depicted far better. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

52 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

8.0" as of 2 pm, so no 2"/hour so far, but 1.5"/hour ain't bad (3" in the past 2 hours).  

Still violently regurgitating snow here at 2:20 pm 17.6°/dp 15.7° 

Praying you get projectile vomiting of snow soon. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m well over a foot already. Probably going to finish close to 20”.

yes sir I did not measure but I did indeed clear my driveway and there is over 12 there for sure ,,,wow

[MJO812]

Back to snow and sleet here

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Hats off to the NAM model on the sleet timing. It won again. If it was a little light on the QPF before the mix, most guidance was. Now let's cool the mid-levels and flip back to all snow. Radar looks amazing for the Hudson Valley region!

Wrong. It had 2-3” in areas that got 10”.

it was the worst model for snowfall totals. Enough. 

[Volcanic Winter]

10 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Transitioning to freezing rain. 6" OTG. 

Where are you located again? I have way more than that, I had six around 930ish. 

[Winterweatherlover]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Hats off to the NAM model on the sleet timing. It won again. If it was a little light on the QPF before the mix, most guidance was. Now let's cool the mid-levels and flip back to all snow. Radar looks amazing for the Hudson Valley region!

Ehh the NAM was not that good with this storm, as another poster mentioned the whole storm as often happens progressed quicker but the NAM had much less snow before the sleet than what actually happened.

[steve392]

Heading back out to clear sidewalks again. Easily another 3 plus inches where I cleared earlier. 

[eduggs]

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

So I guess Islip had over 9” before change to sleet. Solid forecast by Upton ignoring the NAM

The NAM was the first model to bring sleet to our area and eventually most of NNJ and southern Westchester. Eventually all other guidance followed suit. It was the earliest to mix today and it was RIGHT. All other guidance was WRONG. PIVOTAL CLOWN MAPS DO NOT EQUAL THE NAM FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION. People seem to be clueless about interpreting model output. UK, GFS, Euro were way too late and south with the mix line.

[weathermedic]

9.5 inches here with about .5 of that as sleet

[mikeysed]

dry slot it seems.

[Stormlover74]

This will be one of the most impressive long lasting snowpacks we've had in years. Even if we don't add to it it'll need to reach the 40s to get anything to melt

[guinness77]

It’s tough to get a real read on it but I’m guessing 8-10 inches here in town of Babylon. Shoveling a bitch as usual but very powdery snow unfortunately of no use to my kids yet but was fairly easy to push around for me. Definitely all sleet now for a good half-hour. 

[eduggs]

If you believed the global models from 36 hours ago... ECM, UK, GFS, ICON, CMC - all of them - you would think it should be all-snow throughout the NYC area right now. The NAM is just really good at sniffing these out.

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

9.5 inches here with about .5 of that as sleet

You should be able to piece together enough for double digits.