January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage OBS Thread!

[300 square feet]

Just took the beasts out for a walk and saw a few flurries! (Reston) bring it!

[psuhoffman]

So I’ve never seen this drastic of a split between the globals and American run CAMs at this range. What’s odd about this and gives me no past reference to draw on is typically when we see this kind of thing the euro and rgem/HRDPS kind of bridge the gap as those 3 are decent at seeing mid level warming. 
 

But they are all in the camp with the other globals (UK/Icon/gfs).  The impact is most drastic actually for Maryland. Around DC and south we’re talking maybe the difference between 4-5” and 6-8”. But for places NW of 95 in extreme NW VA up through central MD we’re talking the difference between 5-6” and 10-12”!   
 

The divergence seems simple. The globals along with the Canadian high res models have an intense WAA band over the area from 12z-18z that the American CAMs do not. That’s why they are warmer.  Less dynamic cooling to fight off the WAA at mid levels. Also less precip. That combo means 6” instead of 12” for places like Winchester-Frederick-westminster. 
 

What this comes down to imo is which camp is correct about the precip representation from 12-18z. Unfortunately I don’t have any great insight. Usually here is when I’d be saying “in this or that situation this is what happened” but I can’t remember a single case like this to draw upon. 
 

I guess I’m gonna ride with the euro camp. It would be hard to take the NAM and a bunch of experimental stuff over the highest verification tools we have. But on the other hand those CAMs were designed for this. When they score the euro a 30 mile shift in 800 mb temps and a meso scale precip band aren’t really going to impact those scores at all!  
 

Yes I just contradicted myself. If I had to make a forecast maybe I’d hedge and go in between even though that’s probably not the most likely outcome, one of these camps is going to win and that zone is either getting 5-6” or 10-12”.  So a forecast of 8 would be gutless but the least likely to bust bad. 
 

@Terpeast  @WxUSAF @CAPE  @MillvilleWx

Thoughts? 

[DDweatherman]

Making a final call map, does anyone have a blank map for me to use over MD, PA, VA? I don't have the same archived map DB i used  to 

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, grhqofb5 said:

Why do people post the temperature at their house, but not provide their location? Have to click on the profile to figure it out….

[Massanothing]

14.7/1 with light snow just starting!

 

[grhqofb5]

3 minutes ago, astarck said:

Turn your phone landscape 

Damn…

 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, 300 square feet said:

Just took the beasts out for a walk and saw a few flurries! (Reston) bring it!

It's snowing in Reston? WTF?

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Making a final call map, does anyone have a blank map for me to use over MD, PA, VA? I don't have the same archived map DB i used  to 

[clskinsfan]

Just now, Massanothing said:

14.7/1 with light snow just starting!

 

Oh yeah. Here we go baby. That means 30=40 minutes here. 

[NorthArlington101]

Family saying flurries/light snow in Harrisonburg.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, nj2va said:

I wish I knew why that saved as the smallest map of all time. 

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

gives me no past reference to draw on

Yep. Unique airmass. And unique storm to track. Kinda cool. 

[nj2va]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

I wish I knew why that saved as the smallest map of all time. 

Yeah, sorry.  Just google MD PA VA map and there’s a ton that come up.

[MillvilleWx]

About 6 miles east of Martinsburg, WV 

Currently 14.9/-4.0 

Let’s rock!! 

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, Demeter said:

First flakes here in Spotsylvania. Very, very light though. 

You don;t know this, but you always come up in my texts with Matt.  We use you as a barometer as to when we are about to lose our minds. When you report sleet, we lose it.    Not mad at you, but we know it won't be long for us.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I wish I knew why that saved as the smallest map of all time. 

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Okay, rye whiskey is poured. Cat is going outside, back inside, outside, inside, repeat...   Caps game is on soon.  Radar returns are showing up.  And snow is on the way!

Let's go!

If you mean 10:00 for the Caps is soon, then sure. lol. I’m all in on watching that until we get stickage. Then it’s Jebwalk time. 

[CAPE]

No one checked the Spire Global Weather Basic? I hear its even more reliable than the Panasonic. Yeah baby!

[WxUSAF]

@psuhoffmani definitely went the chickenshit hedging route. Leaned euro but hedged lower. So basically as long as 12z/18z NAM doesn’t verify verbatim (or worse jesusallahbuddah save us), I should be able to hit the low end range I gave. 
 

eta…RGEM deathbands us to hell before the flip. Such dark digital blue it’s almost black!

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Making a final call map, does anyone have a blank map for me to use over MD, PA, VA? I don't have the same archived map DB i used  to 

Go to TT and zoom in on the northeast then pick some 6 hour precip map that has nothing on it and copy it onto paint, cut out the area you want and go to town 

[understudyhero]

What’s the best radar scope settings to see incoming precipitation for this storm along i-66 and 15?

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Making a final call map, does anyone have a blank map for me to use over MD, PA, VA? I don't have the same archived map DB i used  to 

Use this one. Cut out the area you want. 

[Benjamn3]

Anyone else kind of lying to themselves?
 

“Idk man I really think it’ll work out, I’ll bet this bad boy over performs for me, we got this shit.” 
 

haha yea me either…

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffmani definitely went the chickenshit hedging route. Leaned euro but hedged lower. So basically as long as 12z/18z NAM doesn’t verify verbatim (or worse jesusallahbuddah save us), I should be able to hit the low end range I gave. 
 

eta…RGEM deathbands us to hell before the flip. Such dark digital blue it’s almost black!

This is the 1 hour precip right before DC flips - epic Jebwalk in that hour.

[bncho]

Just now, nj2va said:

This is the 1 hour precip right before DC flips - epic Jebwalk in that hour.

3" an inch rates if ratios are 11:1 or higher. Holy smokes.

[Eskimo Joe]

Still rather dry at the surface across Maryland

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffmani definitely went the chickenshit hedging route. Leaned euro but hedged lower. So basically as long as 12z/18z NAM doesn’t verify verbatim (or worse jesusallahbuddah save us), I should be able to hit the low end range I gave. 
 

eta…RGEM deathbands us to hell before the flip. Such dark digital blue it’s almost black!

It kind of looks like the Spire lol

[Demeter]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You don;t know this, but you always come up in my texts with Matt.  We use you as a barometer as to when we are about to lose our minds. When you report sleet, we lose it.    Not mad at you, but we know it won't be long for us.

You’ll get my sad ass sleet report too. I’m always waiting for those pingers. Hopefully as late as possible tomorrow.

[Jrlg1181]

Just got home , pixie dust snow here in Waynesboro... 12 degrees - instant stickage on the roads , cartops...

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Use this one. Cut out the area you want. 

Looks dry  Thanks PSU