Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

Last 9 runs of the GFS for 18z Sunday, starting at 12z Jan 22 through the most recent run.  Clear northward creep, as depressing as that is.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I just want a storm man.   Not even focusing on big snow accums at this point.  Just want a qpf bomb.  My only concern is some of the dryness

Yeah I hope some of that cutback in QPF in some of the mesos (NAM, in particular?) is not correct.

[Weather Junkie]

Good thing next weekend is showing a monster blizzard….oh wait…

[TheColtrane]

1 minute ago, Snowciopathic Snow Bro said:

Last 9 runs of the GFS for 18z Sunday, starting at 12z Jan 22 through the most recent run.  Clear northward creep, as depressing as that is.

Never saw it coming

[stormy]

8 minutes ago, SilentTalkie said:

Latest Ice forecast from LWX lowered for my area in Nelson County. Had previously been at 1/4 inch.

This is outdated by at least 8 hours.

[TheColtrane]

13 minutes ago, feloniousq said:

Are you just going to post this every 30 minutes like the TWC forecast?


.

He's tantruming about people tantruming. 

[dallen7908]

3 minutes ago, stormy said:

This is outdated by at least 8 hours.

Please read more carefully - especially before criticizing someone. 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Thought the blizzard watch was gone.  Good to know.  Not seen very often.  

Correct. The Blizzard Watch product no longer exists. The last Blizzard Watch issued by LWX was 1/21/16.

[NorthArlington101]

https://x.com/antsmagaweather/status/2015086160029028694?s=46&t=GcJrdtSs3JJfCsUHkcq4ow

There are nice reports down south that can give folks some huffs of copium. I say that in the nicest way, too… sometimes that stuff matters. It usually doesn’t translate up to here but hey, you never know.

[Chris78]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

There are nice reports down south that can give folks some huffs of copium. I say that in the nicest way, too… sometimes that stuff matters. It usually doesn’t translate up to here but hey, you never know.

Better than the other way around....

[stormy]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I just want a storm man.   Not even focusing on big snow accums at this point.  Just want a qpf bomb.  My only concern is some of the dryness

You're right on man!!

[SilentTalkie]

6 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Please read more carefully - especially before criticizing someone. 

Oddly the currently issued event total graphic and expected ice accumulation graphic are a bit far apart in the southern and eastern areas. I'm a bit antsy about the forecast being out in the country myself. I deleted my original post! And will head out to buy some more gas for the generator just in case.

[WxUSAF]

@high risk how much can I hug the HREF to toss the nams? 6-8” of snow and little ZR for the metros, so presumably sleet on there.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=frzrfram_024h_mean&sector=conus  (Toggle other winter parameters)

[Superstorm]

Better than the other way around....

If it was the other way around, people would be saying see the NAM is right.


.

[hsq]

LWX point forecast upped highs tomorrow to above freezing down here (was well below yesterday).

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Starting to join the red flag camp with @NorthArlington101.   I think it'll be a fun storm but wouldn't be shocked at something like 4 to 7".  Not just going just off the NAM, but thermals plus our most favorable models keep cutting back a bit.  Hope I'm wrong as hell.  I'm still going to enjoy it.  This will be our best winter event in a long time around here.

I believe models are not programmed and don’t consider what a near  record breaking arctic airmass can do.  It’s 30.70 now and 30.40+ come crunch time.  That low would make it up into WV under standard or even above high pressure but this Arctic mass ain’t standard. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

There are nice reports down south that can give folks some huffs of copium. I say that in the nicest way, too… sometimes that stuff matters. It usually doesn’t translate up to here but hey, you never know.

Who knows, as we speak under full sunshine it is 17 degrees in MBY.  That’s usually like the lowest temp we see in a given winter.  Pretty anomalous setup, who knows, maybe will confuse the models a bit. 

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, TheColtrane said:

He's tantruming about people tantruming. 

lol, that was I was thinking.  Honestly was the only tantruming I saw

[stormy]

7 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Please read more carefully - especially before criticizing someone. 

Thanks! I appreciate the 11:39 correction. My bad!!!

I hope this is right but it disagrees with half of the models. Especially the vaunted Euro. 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I believe models are not programmed and don’t consider what a near  record breaking arctic airmass can do.  It’s 30.70 now and 30.40+ come crunch time.  That low would make it up into WV under standard or even above high pressure but this Arctic mass ain’t standard. 

I hope so, but my problem with that theory is that the models are purely math and physics based.  I would think they "know" the law of physics and have worked out  the correct possibilities and somehow figured that out.

Again, I hope it's wrong.  Regardless, at this point I'm glad we got something to talk about and not sitting here saying 10 more days away...

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Euro is starting.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Euro is starting.

Man atp I don't even care what it shows this run. It's probably about to be just as wrong as the GFS.

[Wetbulbs88]

11 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It’s interesting how we frame this.  “We bled”. Nothing actually happened, the atmosphere was always going to do what it was going to do.  If you chose to believe that the computer simulated storms were real then this may seem like a bust, but many wise posters on here said be very wary of this setup and wait til Friday to believe a big snowstorm.  
 

also we have most models showing anywhere from 4-10 inches of snow for dc, then sleet, and maybe frza.  This will likely be high impact winter storm.  Even just 4 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet will almost verify the NWS forecast amounts. 

This is pedantic and disingenuous. If all you care about is the deterministic reality of the actual weather then you don’t need to track the weather. Yet here you are.
 

Our reality is what we can predict.  It’s disingenuous to pretend we aren’t hoping for or reacting to what the current modeling and forecasting suggests. 
 

While some pros may have suggested to be wary, no one knew we would end up here. Given this uncertainty, it’s perfectly fine to be disappointed. It’s also what makes this hobby fun. If it weren’t, then we wouldn’t care when things go our way. 

 

 

CWG just lowered their outlook to 4-7”, and short range modeling. Just two or three days ago we were looking at multiples of this total. No one here can attest to knowing how this would end up. Being disappointed means I care. Nothing more and nothing less. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

This is pedantic and disingenuous. If all you care about is the deterministic reality of the actual weather then you don’t need to track the weather. Yet here you are.
 

Our reality is what we can predict.  It’s disingenuous to pretend we aren’t hoping for or reacting to what the current modeling and forecasting suggests. 
 

While some pros may have suggested to be wary, no one knew we would end up here. Given this uncertainty, it’s perfectly fine to be disappointed. It’s also what makes this hobby fun. If it weren’t, then we wouldn’t care when things go our way. 

 

 

CWG just lowered their outlook to 4-7”, and short range modeling. Just two or three days ago we were looking at multiples of this total. No one here can attest to knowing how this would end up. Being disappointed means I care. Nothing more and nothing less. 

Meh.  You just have to not believe the big storms 3-5 days out.  We’ve been down this road so many times in the last few years.  But I’ll take any further discussion to banter.  Euro is running! 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

My bad, I think Pivotal just added the 12z tag without any maps. lol

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Now she's running! 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Now she's running! 

It mag need to keep running because we chasing after it with pitchforks for being wrong, lol

[stormtracker]

Seems wet

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Slight nudge north at hr12 compared to 0z.

[mitchnick]

Euro Ai fwiw