Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[H2O]

Ok last true model watching day and the start of the storm for parts of the area.

The powers that be have asked that this thread really be the one to get serious and allow people to get the info they need without useless crash outs over model runs.  

 

So please limit posts to model analysis and appropriate storm info.

If you feel angry, sad, happy, meh over any maps or data go use the banter thread.  No whining, bitching or arguing.  Posts will get hidden and it just makes life easier for us all including the ones trying to make the thread readable.  We can't make weather do what we want so lets just accept what falls and hope for the best.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

12z and GFS still hasn't really caved, not what I was expecting.

[psuhoffman]

@caviman2201 thanks for the UK map...any way you could post the one through the end of the storm...I think north of 70 gets more snow after 18z based on the thermal and precip maps.  Thanks 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

12z and GFS still hasn't really caved, not what I was expecting.

It has trended warmer...and some of the warmer guidance like the GGEM has trended colder...they are meeting in the middle...for us right on the line where exactly that middle is means a lot 

[baltosquid]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

12z and GFS still hasn't really caved, not what I was expecting.

Yeah it is more of a gentle slide or evolution towards other modeling but it's bidirectional. I am a bit more optimistic today than I was yesterday, for sure. Still think the GFS is gonna deteriorate a bit though.

[caviman2201]

@psuhoffman re: your request from the other thread:

 

[jaydreb]

I input this into ChatGPT, assigned weights to each model, and came up with a weighted Prior to Flip QPF of .66” and Time of Flip of 16z (11am). 
 

5-8” seems like a fair forecast based on that.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It has trended warmer...and some of the warmer guidance like the GGEM has trended colder...they are meeting in the middle...for us right on the line where exactly that middle is means a lot 

The needle has barely moved on the snow totals. I was expecting it to be closer to what the Euro was showing.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

The needle has barely moved on the snow totals. I was expecting it to be closer to what the Euro was showing.

Honestly people should focus on qpf and apply their backyard climo to get idea of totals. Snow maps are lol 

[psuhoffman]

With the euro to go (and obviously that could change things quite a bit) this run has been the first time I saw legit improvement across the guidance and not just grasping at noise level changes.  Until now I felt each run was a very slow bleed in the wrong direction but 12z was an actual improvement across everything so far imo.  

[Jmister]

Not sure it's worth much, but now-cast HRRR is missing precip breaking out in cold sector. Just something to watch moving forward.

[87storms]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

With the euro to go (and obviously that could change things quite a bit) this run has been the first time I saw legit improvement across the guidance and not just grasping at noise level changes.  Until now I felt each run was a very slow bleed in the wrong direction but 12z was an actual improvement across everything so far imo.  

It's gonna snow and there's nothing we can do about it.

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

12z was an actual improvement across everything so far imo.  

Maybe the models are starting to actually get grip on just how cold this airmass is?

[clskinsfan]

HRDPS/Herpederp was really good at 12Z. Much colder rain/sleet line in central VA at 12Z Sunday.

[Bob Chill]

Euro AI a tick colder with a bit more snow down here in the south

[primetime]

1 minute ago, GreyHat said:

NWS just updated Delaware @ 11:55. Before it was less and now they up totals.

Interesting....NWS cut the totals for northern Carroll on the point and click.

[baltosquid]

Euro AI is colder. Worst frame at 700:

 

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Maybe the models are starting to actually get grip on just how cold this airmass is?

With this airmass i could see snow possible with a thin warm layer if the rates are heavy. Gonna be fun to watch unfold in real time

[stormtracker]

Euro looks similar so far

[stormtracker]

It's just a lil colder so far...nothing huge, for us precip still about the same

[Terpeast]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Euro AI is colder. Worst frame at 700:

 

If I had to guess where the true northern extent of the 800-750 warm nose, it would be along the darkest blue line instead of that 0 line on this 700 map. Maybe not even that far. 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, primetime said:

Interesting....NWS cut the totals for northern Carroll on the point and click.

P&C is gonna change constantly. I don’t think they are human generated 

[stormtracker]

Seems like a hold.   Just a tad drier along the chesapeak 

[stormtracker]

Still running just a smidge cooler

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

If I had to guess where the true northern extent of the 800-750 warm nose, it would be along the darkest blue line instead of that 0 line on this 700 map. Maybe not even that far. 

I don't know much about the whole process of snowing through the thin warm nose. Is it weenie talk or could we really get meaningful snow through it? If you have any time to explain the reasonableness of it. I hear it pretty much every time we get a mixy event.

[SnowenOutThere]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

With the euro to go (and obviously that could change things quite a bit) this run has been the first time I saw legit improvement across the guidance and not just grasping at noise level changes.  Until now I felt each run was a very slow bleed in the wrong direction but 12z was an actual improvement across everything so far imo.  

For me 6z was the first real improvement runs. Unfortunately we are at odds with where we each want the initial thump. I liked how the 6z favored areas south of NOVA more while the 12z shifted it a bit north. Still got time to go, hopefully we can all win with a larger QDF field in general. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12ZAI EURO a hold, slight tick/noise south compared to 6Z.

[DDweatherman]

Randy’s right, looks like we’re not bleeding in the wrong direction for Euro. 12z suite stopped that for the most part, and several models going back in the right direction. 

[stormtracker]

I'd do screenshots, but I'm on this Windows PC.   Yall gonna see the maps soon anyway.  Nothing earthshattering different.

[stormtracker]

Evens out...got a tad wetter toward the end.  All in all, a hold IMO