January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!

[WxUSAF]

My daughter woke up, bleary-eyed looked out the window, and eyeballed “about 6”?”. Nearly to the tenth! The genes were passed along successfully 

[kgottwald]

I hate sleet. It's going to take the damn Incredible Hulk to shovel this crap.

[North Balti Zen]

Not for nothing , and I will leave this here in banter  - but I am kinda fascinated by the next part of the storm - a bunch of sleet on top of this kind of base of snow with temps in the mid teens is a literal first for me in terms of weather experience. If it actually rains on top of that , well, bring it.

this is an absolutely memorable storm. 

[North Balti Zen]

Also, there is gonna be a NAM fight later about its runs but I am not gonna say it killed it when it was so off on the thump and initial slug of qpf…

[NorthArlington101]

8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Also, there is gonna be a NAM fight later about its runs but I am not gonna say it killed it when it was so off on the thump and initial slug of qpf…

You gotta know what to look for. I won't pretend the NAM QPF depiction didn't scare me, but I still assumed it was running at least a bit low. The thermals, on the other hand... I set my alarm for 3am for a reason. Had little doubt pingers would be making it into the Beltway when it said they would.

Globals/RGEM overdid it on QPF too, fwiw. I'd still call the NAM a winner. Maybe someone smarter will do a retrospective and the RRFS will have really nailed it, idk

[AmericanWxFreak]

So will MD be up and running on Monday with this timing?

[winter_warlock]

Heavy snow falling. 

6.5 Inches here in sparrows point MD 

 

 I got 1.5 inches in last hour!!!!

 

 

 

[winter_warlock]

[North Balti Zen]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You gotta know what to look for. I won't pretend the NAM QPF depiction didn't scare me, but I still assumed it was running at least a bit low. The thermals, on the other hand... I set my alarm for 3am for a reason. Had little doubt pingers would be making it into the Beltway when it said they would.

Globals/RGEM overdid it on QPF too, fwiw. I'd still call the NAM a winner. Maybe someone smarter will do a retrospective and the RRFS will have really nailed it, idk

I didn’t doubt it on thermals but it was fucking out to lunch on qpf and that’s kinda important too..

GFS gonna be way more accurate up my way in fallston in terms of totals. 
 

[arlwx12]

One of my neighbors in Arlington VA came out immediately after the changeover and started shoveling.

Some snow DID get scraped off my Hill of Doom, BUT with the sleet, and freezing rain potential, the street might get up to its old tricks again.

[NorthArlington101]

I didn’t doubt it on thermals but it was fucking out to lunch on qpf and that’s kinda important too..
GFS gonna be way more accurate up my way in fallston in terms of totals. 
 

Guess mileage is gonna vary here depending on spot. Most of the globals had me in the 7-9” range for snow and I’m at 5”. NAMs were usually too low but minus a really off run usually 3-4”.

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

GFS gonna be way more accurate up

How often does that happen?

[nj2va]

Just now, Scraff said:

Wouldn’t be the first time. lol. Nah. Just kidding on that. I save that for apres-ski. 

Oh dude, I have lol 

[Amped]

Its sleet now, couldn't even make it to 14z.  Good job NAM, this is your 'Farewell Storm' Thanks for your service.

[North Balti Zen]

31 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Guess mileage is gonna vary here depending on spot. Most of the globals had me in the 7-9” range for snow and I’m at 5”. NAMs were usually too low but minus a really off run usually 3-4”.

Fair. I just think it was WAY too aggressive in pushing the sleet line way north  early and cutting down on snow totals pre-flip. 
 

I am at six inches in Fallston and it is still pouring snow.

[North Balti Zen]

What a great storm to start the pattern- we usually have to let a few of these miss before we get hit in favorable windows…

[arlwx12]

A kid (parent in tow) just sledded down part of my Hill of Doom.

A couple more neighbors started to clear paths from their front doors. 

 

[T. August]

So stoked about this storm. Last night I was really thinking total snow/sleet accumulation would amount to 5”. But to get almost 7” of snow alone, with all of the sleet to come, I’m ecstatic lmao.

[snowfan]

What are we making today folks? I've got sourdough rising and rustic white bean n chicken sausage soup simmering.

[winter_warlock]

I've now hit 8 inches!! With heavy sleet. 17.3 F

[LordBaltimore]

Betting odds on OPM closed Tuesday? Gonna need a bit to bounce back from this allnighter

[ErinInTheSky]

So it looks like Sleet storm + 6" of snow was the right forecast for MoCo. Guessing we end up with 6-8 inches countywide of snow and 2-4" of sleet. Single digit and teens lows for the rest of the week, and glaciated ice piles everywhere.

When do you think MCPS reopens?

[WxUSAF]

Been wondering about this.  Huge scale is going to push it up the NESIS scale.

 

[WEATHER53]

7 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

So it looks like Sleet storm + 6" of snow was the right forecast for MoCo. Guessing we end up with 6-8 inches countywide of snow and 2-4" of sleet. Single digit and teens lows for the rest of the week, and glaciated ice piles everywhere.

When do you think MCPS reopens?

Wed or Thurs 

[North Balti Zen]

21 minutes ago, snowfan said:

What are we making today folks? I've got sourdough rising and rustic white bean n chicken sausage soup simmering.

Chili! It’s slow cooking now - gonna do some corn muffins with it when ready later.

 

pancakes for breakfast. It’s such a good Sunday.

[North Balti Zen]

25 minutes ago, T. August said:

So stoked about this storm. Last night I was really thinking total snow/sleet accumulation would amount to 5”. But to get almost 7” of snow alone, with all of the sleet to come, I’m ecstatic lmao.

Yup! 
 

just such a great way to break the snow lid. Hoping winter storms remember where we are now…

[Maestrobjwa]

Well this is a new one....someone just came up and stole the only shovel with the bend in it (and the only one with a metal end) right off my porch. Neighbor just told me and I didn't see it...thanks a lot Mr. Thief. As if I wasn't gonna have a hard enough time shoveling!!!

Maybe keeping a shovel out on the porch isn't a good idea but all these years they've been out there with no issue. Unbelievable

[ErinInTheSky]

7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Wed or Thurs 

Really?

I feel like Thursday is the earliest they'll open. They notoriously close at the slightest thing and with all of the metling, refreezing, and locked in cars with the extreme sleet, I could have sworn this would be protracted.

But I guess the low snow total might make it more manageable.

[Paleocene]

7 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Really?

I feel like Thursday is the earliest they'll open. They notoriously close at the slightest thing and with all of the metling, refreezing, and locked in cars with the extreme sleet, I could have sworn this would be protracted.

But I guess the low snow total might make it more manageable.

I have a middle schooler in mcps schools. I agree, Thursday earliest open. Cold temps might make even that challenging for them.

[ErinInTheSky]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

I have a middle schooler in mcps schools. I agree, Thursday earliest open. Cold temps might make even that challenging for them.

Honestly my guess is Friday. But I am uncertain.