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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!


SnowenOutThere
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Not for nothing , and I will leave this here in banter  - but I am kinda fascinated by the next part of the storm - a bunch of sleet on top of this kind of base of snow with temps in the mid teens is a literal first for me in terms of weather experience. If it actually rains on top of that , well, bring it.

this is an absolutely memorable storm. 

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8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Also, there is gonna be a NAM fight later about its runs but I am not gonna say it killed it when it was so off on the thump and initial slug of qpf…

You gotta know what to look for. I won't pretend the NAM QPF depiction didn't scare me, but I still assumed it was running at least a bit low. The thermals, on the other hand... I set my alarm for 3am for a reason. Had little doubt pingers would be making it into the Beltway when it said they would.

Globals/RGEM overdid it on QPF too, fwiw. I'd still call the NAM a winner. Maybe someone smarter will do a retrospective and the RRFS will have really nailed it, idk

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You gotta know what to look for. I won't pretend the NAM QPF depiction didn't scare me, but I still assumed it was running at least a bit low. The thermals, on the other hand... I set my alarm for 3am for a reason. Had little doubt pingers would be making it into the Beltway when it said they would.

Globals/RGEM overdid it on QPF too, fwiw. I'd still call the NAM a winner. Maybe someone smarter will do a retrospective and the RRFS will have really nailed it, idk

I didn’t doubt it on thermals but it was fucking out to lunch on qpf and that’s kinda important too..

GFS gonna be way more accurate up my way in fallston in terms of totals. 
 

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One of my neighbors in Arlington VA came out immediately after the changeover and started shoveling.

Some snow DID get scraped off my Hill of Doom, BUT with the sleet, and freezing rain potential, the street might get up to its old tricks again.

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I didn’t doubt it on thermals but it was fucking out to lunch on qpf and that’s kinda important too..
GFS gonna be way more accurate up my way in fallston in terms of totals. 
 

Guess mileage is gonna vary here depending on spot. Most of the globals had me in the 7-9” range for snow and I’m at 5”. NAMs were usually too low but minus a really off run usually 3-4”.
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31 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Guess mileage is gonna vary here depending on spot. Most of the globals had me in the 7-9” range for snow and I’m at 5”. NAMs were usually too low but minus a really off run usually 3-4”.

Fair. I just think it was WAY too aggressive in pushing the sleet line way north  early and cutting down on snow totals pre-flip. 
 

I am at six inches in Fallston and it is still pouring snow.

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