SnowenOutThere Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: That seems reasonable. Doesn’t CHO usually CAD better than the metro area? I don't know! I just got here. Though I think they do better when it comes to freezing rain and surface cold air but this setup to my knowledge is all based on 850-700mb warm layers which should torch faster the further south. I'm just worried that I end up with a major ice storm of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Guys I've achieved true weeniedom. I've cancelled a trip that I was going on this weekend to Montana just to stay here for the snow. Montana's got zero snow for the next like 10 days where I was going. I go there regularly so it's not a huge deal, but... literally here altering plans over major storms. I apologize in advance if I ruin the storm because of this. If so you can blame me. To be fair, I was also worried about the dog watcher not being able to get to my house, but that's just an excuse. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, SnowenOutThere said: I don't know! I just got here. Though I think they do better when it comes to freezing rain and surface cold air but this setup to my knowledge is all based on 850-700mb warm layers which should torch faster the further south. I'm just worried that I end up with a major ice storm of freezing rain. From my 4 years in Cville... it can hang on a bit more with the CAD. Honestly, I think you'll do fairly similar to a lot of NOVA on this storm, though that take might age badly. Don't think you really sleet that much more, think you turn to sleet sooner but also start a bit sooner. Really significant FRZA seems increasingly unlikely to me. Feel like it's snow -> sleet for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwLwx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: @MillvilleWx conveyed this last night. Thanks! Didn't check this thread. My bad lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Anyone else getting annoyed with Apple Weather creating insane forecasts and people believing them? I'm currently in Rockville and it's saying 20-25" on Sunday which is so far beyond any real projections. Is this just my pet peeve right now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, catoctin wx said: Anyone else getting annoyed with Apple Weather creating insane forecasts and people believing them? I'm currently in Rockville and it's saying 20-25" on Sunday which is so far beyond any real projections. Is this just my pet peeve right now? The problem too is its getting shared EVERYWHERE. My friend group, X, facebook. Ive seen some mets online trying to fight back against it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, catoctin wx said: Anyone else getting annoyed with Apple Weather creating insane forecasts and people believing them? I'm currently in Rockville and it's saying 20-25" on Sunday which is so far beyond any real projections. Is this just my pet peeve right now? I'm a recently retired teacher and all day I'd have kids telling me how much it was going to snow. Like most things in my career, and to keep my sanity, I just smiled and nodded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, LP08 said: The problem too is its getting shared EVERYWHERE. My friend group, X, facebook. Ive seen some mets online trying to fight back against it. Exactly. People at work are quoting it and then I feel like a dick when I try to correct them based on actual forecasts and projections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'm a recently retired teacher and all day I'd have kids telling me how much it was going to snow. Like most things in my career, and to keep my sanity, I just smiled and nodded. My wife is in education. The only people in the world who are as obsessed with weather as meteorologists are teachers lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Carrot weather app isn’t much better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Since I'm a weather dolt, I'll put this here, but the nam looks slightly better with the cad as things start Saturday night. Not sure it means much, but imo it's better than the other direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, mappy said: Carrot weather app isn’t much better 20.38. Damn that is specific! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, mappy said: Carrot weather app isn’t much better Where's the "wtf?" reaction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago How that little shift south on the NAM saved my ass from sleet by 10 miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Interstate said: How that little shift south on the NAM saved my ass from sleet by 10 miles... spoke too soon... did save 3 hours of snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago My weatherunderground says 13.2" for my place...seems fairly reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago There is a real chance that many of us get more precipitation as sleet than snow, and that sucks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, catoctin wx said: 20.38. Damn that is specific! I know hahaha 12 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Where's the "wtf?" reaction? lol yep My windows computer had 22” listed yesterday hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: There is a real chance that many of us get more precipitation as sleet than snow, and that sucks. I'm worried too but my only hopium is that it is a true artic airmass (in place before the storm) will be a little more stubborn than usual WAA. I've been here too long. That warm air aloft ALWAYS comes in quicker than modeled. I've been telling friends 6-10 so hopefully at least 6" can be reached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: There is a real chance that many of us get more precipitation as sleet than snow, and that sucks. I know people are blowing off the NAM as crazy, which it probably is, but if it is handling dynamics correctly and it shows that sleet line progress so quickly I wouldn’t bet against it. I was in NYC for the Boxing Day storm and from a couple days out it was hammering a quick changeover that the other models didn’t have and it was completely right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I don’t ignore the NAM thermals but really only once we get inside 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 28 minutes ago, LP08 said: The problem too is its getting shared EVERYWHERE. My friend group, X, facebook. Ive seen some mets online trying to fight back against it. You know it’s a good winter when irrational hype over speculative models or forecasts is spreading like wildfire. I remember it happened in 2014 for the first time, and professional mets were so furious and had no idea how to stop it. Sometimes it was a random Facebook page, or an image of a control run showing 2’ of snow 10 days away. But the masses grabbed on to it and went bezerk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I know people are blowing off the NAM as crazy, which it probably is, but if it is handling dynamics correctly and it shows that sleet line progress so quickly I wouldn’t bet against it. I was in NYC for the Boxing Day storm and from a couple days out it was hammering a quick changeover that the other models didn’t have and it was completely right. I agree. I know the NAM sucks at this range but it's showing exactly how we often fail IMBY with these types of setups (like Feb 2014). I'm still (mostly) wishcasting for the GFS, though trusting it is probably even dumber than trusting the NAM at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 15 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: There is a real chance that many of us get more precipitation as sleet than snow, and that sucks. Yea the changeover seems to get triggered by that spoke of Baja energy rotating closer by midday Sunday. Hope this doesn’t become a Feb 94. Unlikely, but it would really help to get a closed low below our latitude again at some point like most of the big storms do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago People blowing off the nam thermals are just ignoring history. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I'm not mad at the slight trends so far today. Still plenty of time for things to go south, and yes, that's got two meanings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago people in central virginia who live at 700mb are going to be boiled alive saturday night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago @MountainGeek @clskinsfan @Wxtrix @DDweatherman Appreciate all the responses from my little inquiry on hosting me out towards your area, or helping with designating where to stay if I were to chase out that direction. Looks like some friends of mine out by Martinsburg said they would love to host me, so I think that’s the route that I’ll end up going. I’ll confer later today, but again, I appreciate the responses and warm welcome (Clskinfan) to your home. Should be a fun storm with a heck of a front end thump, at the very least for your areas. Enjoy!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, paulythegun said: people in central virginia who live at 700mb are going to be boiled alive saturday night insert flaming cyclone of death over short pump 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago 10 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'm not mad at the slight trends so far today. Still plenty of time for things to go south, and yes, that's got two meanings. I think we have time to go every direction like a Wonkavator 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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