January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Amped]

Not liking this trend. Its shifted the jackpot substantial amount northwest since 12z yesterday, a couple more shifts were mostly ice.

[87storms]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

My forecast for the metros, if I had to make one right now is 6-10” with a bunch of sleet to end it. Glacier incoming. I don’t think we’ll see much actual freezing rain, but some freezing drizzle at the end is plausible. Best chance for higher accumulations away from city centers. 
 

This reminds me of a cross between Valentine’s Day 2007 and February 2014

Feb 14 is criminally underrated. It ripped even in Bethesda the entire night. I think 10-12” fell.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

Anyone else concerned looking at the Euro soundings around DC? The snow growth zone temp is as follows:

9z: -8.6

12z: -7.6

15z: -5.4

18z: -4

This should be a big red flag if we're counting on ratios or even a shot at double digits around the metro imo. 

Double digits around the metro, especially in DC will likely be very difficult, but not totally impossible. I think the actual city will be <10” with sleet on top. Climo climo climo 

[balltermen]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

My forecast for the metros, if I had to make one right now is 6-10” with a bunch of sleet to end it. Glacier incoming. I don’t think we’ll see much actual freezing rain, but some freezing drizzle at the end is plausible. Best chance for higher accumulations away from city centers. 
 

This reminds me of a cross between Valentine’s Day 2007 and February 2014

flip in 2014 was nailed by the NAM

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Flip occurs for most by 4pm Sunday.  Precipitation is less on latest run compared to  6Z.

Typical 'dry' run for Euro. I think it tends to do this then ultimately juice back up.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

Feb 14 is criminally underrated. It ripped even in Bethesda the entire night. I think 10-12” fell.

Mt Airy got 2’ and not a single model showed that the entire way into tracking. These storms with a strong WAA regime can surprise. Don’t be surprised if something occurs where totals are higher in spots that weren’t expecting it. We are gonna flip to sleet, idk if that can be avoided at all, so best to get the best front end thump possible. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, CAPE said:

Typical 'dry' run for Euro. I think it tends to do this then ultimately juice back up.

Yeah, it's a little soon for the panic diving.  I'd like to see another run like this

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, it's a little soon for the panic diving.  I'd like to see another run like this

There's also the NW trend though.

[EHoffman]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Mt Airy got 2’ and not a single model showed that the entire way into tracking. These storms with a strong WAA regime can surprise. Don’t be surprised if something occurs where totals are higher in spots that weren’t expecting it. We are gonna flip to sleet, idk if that can be avoided at all, so best to get the best front end thump possible. 

We're forgetting this.  We're getting strong WAA into a historically cold airmass.  I just don't see how we fail at that.

[Warm Nose]

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

yea def colder than the AI--even parts of loudoun is still snow till 0z

I'm all for it but models usually don't do a great job out here - we always flip early.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, balltermen said:

flip in 2014 was nailed by the NAM

HRRR I remember did a great job once it got inside 8 hrs too. The mesos, especially the Nam Nest will be very helpful inside 24 hrs and definitely inside 24 hrs. 

[dailylurker]

11 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Meh- once you take 12+ off the table; additional shifts don't yield that much less snow. Its would take shifts of hundreds of miles to skunk on anything less than 6 inches.

So just set expectations accordingly. This is probably 6-9 for the metros followed by sleety. 

I've seen this many times in my area. I'll put money on this. This will end up 3-5" of snow. It will come in hot and heavy but flip to sleet within a few hours. We'll get sleet for another 4-5 hours before the dryslot moves in and shuts it off. Maybe some freezing drizzle. Nothing remotely close to what we were tracking on Monday. 

[balltermen]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Double digits around the metro, especially in DC will likely be very difficult, but not totally impossible. I think the actual city will be <10” with sleet on top. Climo climo climo 

I'd prob go 8-10" for DC for now to deemphasize the 6" (until things go sideways - if they do)

[jayyy]

We're forgetting this.  We're getting strong WAA into a historically cold airmass.  I just don't see how we fail at that.

We won’t. And if people around here are mad about 6-10”+ before a flip to sleet that sticks around for 2 weeks, idk what to tell them.

[SnowGolfBro]

My biggest concern is we keep trending northwest and end up with disaster of an ice storm. Like is being progged to our south. If widespread power outages hit the major cities and suburbs, we could have millions without power heading into an arctic blast.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, dailylurker said:

I've seen this many times in my area. I'll put money on this. This will end up 3-5" of snow. It will come in hot and heavy but flip to sleet within a few hours. We'll get sleet for anyone 4-5 hours before the dryslot moves in and shuts it off. Maybe some freezing drizzle. Nothing remotely close to what we were tracking on Monday. 

What model shows 3-5?  Or r u just bitter casting lol

[TSSN+]

Lost a decent amount of qpf that run this why snow totals ultimately dropped. Hopefully just a dry run. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Lost a decent amount of qpf that run this why snow totals ultimately dropped. Hopefully just a dry run. 

Euro shows the transfer nearly on top of our region. You don't want that because it causes a precip minimum. You want the transfer to your south.

[balltermen]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

What model shows 3-5?  Or r u just bitter casting lol

column at onset should inocculate us from quick flip

[TSSN+]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

What model shows 3-5?  Or r u just bitter casting lol

So the storm only lasts 12hrs for him too? lol snows for a few hours then 4-5hrs of sleet is like a 12hr storm. What happens for the other 6-12hrs? lol 

[jwLwx]

3 hours ago, jwLwx said:

SIAP...

 

Bump... for those jumping ship already. 00 runs tonight will be key.

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Mt Airy got 2’ and not a single model showed that the entire way into tracking. These storms with a strong WAA regime can surprise. Don’t be surprised if something occurs where totals are higher in spots that weren’t expecting it. We are gonna flip to sleet, idk if that can be avoided at all, so best to get the best front end thump possible. 

Wasn’t some of that from the ULL that swung through later? I was in extreme eastern Hoco for that one and we got smoked with like 12ish overnight but then it drizzled and compacted and we lost a ton of snow by the end of the day. Got a tiny bit with the second piece but was a huge disappointment because the wall of snow came in the middle of the night and the ground truth thanks to compaction and melting was like an advisory level snowfall by the afternoon.

[dailylurker]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

What model shows 3-5?  Or r u just bitter casting lol

Bitter casting lol. I did screen shot the comment for later use. We'll see how it ages lol

[TSSN+]

Just now, jwLwx said:

Bump... for those jumping ship already. 00 runs tonight will be key.

That was yesterday old news the data was in 0z last nights runs 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, jwLwx said:

Bump... for those jumping ship already. 00 runs tonight will be key.

The time stamp has yesterday's date

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Wasn’t some of that from the ULL that swung through later? I was in extreme eastern Hoco for that one and we got smoked with like 12ish overnight but then it drizzled and compacted and we lost a ton of snow by the end of the day. Got a tiny bit with the second piece but was a huge disappointment because the wall of snow came in the middle of the night and the ground truth thanks to compaction and melting was like an advisory level snowfall by the afternoon.

Some was, but Mt Airy actually got close to close to 20” from the front end thump. There was a band that setup over there area down to Clarksburg that absolutely crushed them. Never forecast until the last minute. That can happen with these setups. Never know!! 

[LeesburgWx]

I feel like we just automatically use the euro as the sole gospel and discount every other model. Again, I know the euro is King, but with this logic, we should just use the euro and not look at anything else. People are cliff diving prematurely. It could trend more NW, but we aren't looking at pure rain. It's major ice when we do flip. And then cold AF. Whats to hate about that?

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Mt Airy got 2’ and not a single model showed that the entire way into tracking. These storms with a strong WAA regime can surprise. Don’t be surprised if something occurs where totals are higher in spots that weren’t expecting it. We are gonna flip to sleet, idk if that can be avoided at all, so best to get the best front end thump possible. 

I was just telling Andy and Randy in our group chat that as long as I can stay snow until noon, I’m good. Hopefully a foot on the ground before the inevitable flip to sleet 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, osfan24 said:

Wasn’t some of that from the ULL that swung through later? I was in extreme eastern Hoco for that one and we got smoked with like 12ish overnight but then it drizzled and compacted and we lost a ton of snow by the end of the day. Got a tiny bit with the second piece but was a huge disappointment because the wall of snow came in the middle of the night and the ground truth thanks to compaction and melting was like an advisory level snowfall by the afternoon.

 

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Mt Airy got 2’ and not a single model showed that the entire way into tracking. These storms with a strong WAA regime can surprise. Don’t be surprised if something occurs where totals are higher in spots that weren’t expecting it. We are gonna flip to sleet, idk if that can be avoided at all, so best to get the best front end thump possible. 

That was an epic storm. 24" of snow in Damascus, 5" in Takoma Park. We had nearly dry roads in southern Montgomery County, while upcounty it was snowing hard.

[jwLwx]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

That was yesterday old news the data was in 0z last nights runs 

 

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

The time stamp has yesterday's date

See his note about Thursday nights 00z runs being key....