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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

mappy

By mappy,
in Mid Atlantic

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MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

I know everyone loves the GFS, but currently it is not in-line with a majority of the guidance, so if I was on the desk, I’d be doing a forecast that was non-GFS based.  Current model diagnostic would

Ellinwood
Ellinwood

Initial snow+sleet forecast... main issue will obviously be the mixing that comes in on Sunday, mainly along and east of I-95. Very excited as my kid is 6 and has not seen a 6"+ snow event.

MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

For clarity sake Data ingest is ONGOING and will be available for the 00z runs TONIGHT (00z 1/22) There has been NO RECON DATA FOR TODAY (1/21).    Thanks

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

More interesting question for GEFS: are they following the Op with that progression? How many look like other guidance?

At this range, the ensembles should very closely resemble the op, or something is probably wrong with the model lol. I think we are probably past the point where the GEFS offers any real insight.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, 300 square feet said:

We need to be ready to accept widespread 2”-4” with ice (maybe a lot), then a dry slot.  

C'mon people!  This BS should be in the Banter thread.  It adds nothing to the discussion and is merely doom posting and whine-casting.  I'm not saying we should have all "rah-rah!" stuff in here for the most positive model depictions, but comments like this with no support or background do nothing...and I'll say that now even IF this ends up being the case.  Should we be a bit alarmed by something like the NAM result earlier?  Sure, a bit cautious.  But we tend to be overly cautious in this region anyhow which is fine.  But even that, which appears to be the worst possible scenario, doesn't mean we should "accept that it might be right" hands-down right now.

(ETA:  And even the NAM solution is somewhat better than what you're saying here.)

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wxmeddler

wxmeddler

Posted
Posted

You'd have to dig back in the other thread for the quote, but I've been saying since Monday that I think 12z Friday (tomorrow morning) is when it will be "lock in" time.

I'm not a "fan" of course of the stronger 850 low going into the OHV but I think that is the most likely outcome here. The coastal hand off is my biggest unknown, and I have no hard "science based" direction on that. My gut tells me that it will be a late and we're gonna get the mix. 

Still lots to work out, and it's likely going to be a struggle and we're gonna be nowcasting on Sunday.

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JenkinsJinkies

JenkinsJinkies

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

You'd have to dig back in the other thread for the quote, but I've been saying since Monday that I think 12z Friday (tomorrow morning) is when it will be "lock in" time.

I'm not a "fan" of course of the stronger 850 low going into the OHV but I think that is the most likely outcome here. The coastal hand off is my biggest unknown, and I have no hard "science based" direction on that. My gut tells me that it will be a late and we're gonna get the mix. 

Still lots to work out, and it's likely going to be a struggle and we're gonna be nowcasting on Sunday.

I mean I think the “it won’t mix” point died yesterday.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

You'd have to dig back in the other thread for the quote, but I've been saying since Monday that I think 12z Friday (tomorrow morning) is when it will be "lock in" time.

I'm not a "fan" of course of the stronger 850 low going into the OHV but I think that is the most likely outcome here. The coastal hand off is my biggest unknown, and I have no hard "science based" direction on that. My gut tells me that it will be a late and we're gonna get the mix. 

Still lots to work out, and it's likely going to be a struggle and we're gonna be nowcasting on Sunday.

Well said. A big weekend for the mesonet though. Its first widespread winter storm.

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IUsedToHateCold

IUsedToHateCold

Posted
Posted

The fact that the AI GFS doesn't support the physics model is pretty telling IMO. This would be an absolutely devastating coup if the Euro were to cave. Like I said earlier, I think the GFS caves, maybe even at 00z... but I don't think this is over yet. We will get a last minute trend in one direction or another (hopefully positive). 

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
Just now, IUsedToHateCold said:

The fact that the AI GFS doesn't support the physics model is pretty telling IMO. This would be an absolutely devastating coup if the Euro were to cave. Like I said earlier, I think the GFS caves, maybe even at 00z... but I don't think this is over yet. We will get a last minute trend in one direction or another (hopefully positive). 

I mean yeah...I think the GFS is out there on its own right now and is at this point the absolute best possible outcome.  But even the other models (other than maybe the 18Z NAM) give a solid amount of snow Saturday night into at least early Sunday morning, and the consensus seems to be on the order of ~6-10" total (snow plus the snow/sleet we get Sunday) in the metro areas DC-Balt, with more northwest of there.  At this point in the game, NOBODY should be surprised that we're going to mix and/or change to sleet for awhile at some point.  That's been hammered by every piece of guidance for awhile now.

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wxlvr

wxlvr

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, 300 square feet said:

For now, but look at the trend. 

You are an idiot.  Shut up and let the people who know what is going on to speak.  I have been a member of this forum for more than a decade.  It is people like you that make me never want to come back.  Shut the hell up.  You are just spewing junk.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
Just now, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Off topic, but I don't think I've ever seen someone get ten different reactions to a post before. That's gotta be a record. I clicked on 'clap' just to make it eleven. :lol:

You played out my intrusive thought that I resisted to do that...thank you, lolol

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wxlvr

wxlvr

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Off topic, but I don't think I've ever seen someone get ten different reactions to a post before. That's gotta be a record. I clicked on 'clap' just to make it eleven. :lol:

Ha!  I just responded...am I the 12th?

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