January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Amped said:

Ecmwf, Rgem and even the Nam usually handle warm air aloft better than the GFS.

That they do. However the GFS has a different track with the primary altogether...so it being colder kinda lines up with that track.

[300 square feet]

Just now, Amped said:

Ecmwf, Rgem and even the Nam usually handle warm air aloft better than the GFS.

We need to be ready to accept widespread 2”-4” with ice (maybe a lot), then a dry slot.  

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

More interesting question for GEFS: are they following the Op with that progression? How many look like other guidance?

At this range, the ensembles should very closely resemble the op, or something is probably wrong with the model lol. I think we are probably past the point where the GEFS offers any real insight.

[TSSN+]

If the gfs is this wrong and bust inside hour 60 can we all sign a petition to send to the NWS to shut it down? Like seriously should not be used to make forecast if it’s that bad. 

[Amped]

Just now, 300 square feet said:

We need to be ready to accept widespread 2”-4” with ice (maybe a lot), then a dry slot.  

Rgem still has like 8 before the changeover. 

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, 300 square feet said:

We need to be ready to accept widespread 2”-4” with ice (maybe a lot), then a dry slot.  

Where are u getting that information? 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Where are u getting that information? 

Yeah, from what I’ve seen the floor is still 6”.

[WEATHER53]

53 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yeah it actually gets the coastal going. 

Some depictions gave that diamond like structure suddenly appearing off VA Beach  and that will help us greatly 

[300 square feet]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

Yeah, from what I’ve seen the floor is still 6”.

For now, but look at the trend. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 minutes ago, 300 square feet said:

We need to be ready to accept widespread 2”-4” with ice (maybe a lot), then a dry slot.  

C'mon people!  This BS should be in the Banter thread.  It adds nothing to the discussion and is merely doom posting and whine-casting.  I'm not saying we should have all "rah-rah!" stuff in here for the most positive model depictions, but comments like this with no support or background do nothing...and I'll say that now even IF this ends up being the case.  Should we be a bit alarmed by something like the NAM result earlier?  Sure, a bit cautious.  But we tend to be overly cautious in this region anyhow which is fine.  But even that, which appears to be the worst possible scenario, doesn't mean we should "accept that it might be right" hands-down right now.

(ETA:  And even the NAM solution is somewhat better than what you're saying here.)

[wxmeddler]

You'd have to dig back in the other thread for the quote, but I've been saying since Monday that I think 12z Friday (tomorrow morning) is when it will be "lock in" time.

I'm not a "fan" of course of the stronger 850 low going into the OHV but I think that is the most likely outcome here. The coastal hand off is my biggest unknown, and I have no hard "science based" direction on that. My gut tells me that it will be a late and we're gonna get the mix. 

Still lots to work out, and it's likely going to be a struggle and we're gonna be nowcasting on Sunday.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, 300 square feet said:

For now, but look at the trend. 

I saw some people pick apart the 12z Euro and EPS and the “trend” might just be for the jackpost zone, not the bare minimum.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

You'd have to dig back in the other thread for the quote, but I've been saying since Monday that I think 12z Friday (tomorrow morning) is when it will be "lock in" time.

I'm not a "fan" of course of the stronger 850 low going into the OHV but I think that is the most likely outcome here. The coastal hand off is my biggest unknown, and I have no hard "science based" direction on that. My gut tells me that it will be a late and we're gonna get the mix. 

Still lots to work out, and it's likely going to be a struggle and we're gonna be nowcasting on Sunday.

I mean I think the “it won’t mix” point died yesterday.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

You'd have to dig back in the other thread for the quote, but I've been saying since Monday that I think 12z Friday (tomorrow morning) is when it will be "lock in" time.

I'm not a "fan" of course of the stronger 850 low going into the OHV but I think that is the most likely outcome here. The coastal hand off is my biggest unknown, and I have no hard "science based" direction on that. My gut tells me that it will be a late and we're gonna get the mix. 

Still lots to work out, and it's likely going to be a struggle and we're gonna be nowcasting on Sunday.

Well said. A big weekend for the mesonet though. Its first widespread winter storm.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, 300 square feet said:

For now, but look at the trend. 

Are you posting from Reston, VA or a rest home in Virginia? 

[IUsedToHateCold]

The fact that the AI GFS doesn't support the physics model is pretty telling IMO. This would be an absolutely devastating coup if the Euro were to cave. Like I said earlier, I think the GFS caves, maybe even at 00z... but I don't think this is over yet. We will get a last minute trend in one direction or another (hopefully positive). 

[stormy]

18z GFS is colder.  Less sleet. Higher Kuchera.

[Kay]

5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean I think the “it won’t mix” point died yesterday.

I think the larger point of his post is the level of uncertainty that persists with this and the limits of what can be known, when.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, IUsedToHateCold said:

The fact that the AI GFS doesn't support the physics model is pretty telling IMO. This would be an absolutely devastating coup if the Euro were to cave. Like I said earlier, I think the GFS caves, maybe even at 00z... but I don't think this is over yet. We will get a last minute trend in one direction or another (hopefully positive). 

I mean yeah...I think the GFS is out there on its own right now and is at this point the absolute best possible outcome.  But even the other models (other than maybe the 18Z NAM) give a solid amount of snow Saturday night into at least early Sunday morning, and the consensus seems to be on the order of ~6-10" total (snow plus the snow/sleet we get Sunday) in the metro areas DC-Balt, with more northwest of there.  At this point in the game, NOBODY should be surprised that we're going to mix and/or change to sleet for awhile at some point.  That's been hammered by every piece of guidance for awhile now.

[WEATHER53]

18 minutes ago, 300 square feet said:

We need to be ready to accept widespread 2”-4” with ice (maybe a lot), then a dry slot.  

You’ve been a “I hate this ” baby for two days so go cry elsewhere 

[wxlvr]

9 minutes ago, 300 square feet said:

For now, but look at the trend. 

You are an idiot.  Shut up and let the people who know what is going on to speak.  I have been a member of this forum for more than a decade.  It is people like you that make me never want to come back.  Shut the hell up.  You are just spewing junk.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

18 minutes ago, 300 square feet said:

We need to be ready to accept widespread 2”-4” with ice (maybe a lot), then a dry slot.  

Off topic, but I don't think I've ever seen someone get ten different reactions to a post before. That's gotta be a record. I clicked on 'clap' just to make it eleven. 

[Warm Nose]

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Off topic, but I don't think I've ever seen someone get ten different reactions to a post before. That's gotta be a record. I clicked on 'clap' just to make it eleven. 

You played out my intrusive thought that I resisted to do that...thank you, lolol

[wxlvr]

1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Off topic, but I don't think I've ever seen someone get ten different reactions to a post before. That's gotta be a record. I clicked on 'clap' just to make it eleven. 

Ha!  I just responded...am I the 12th?

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Warm Nose said:

How accurate is BAM weather 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Off topic, but I don't think I've ever seen someone get ten different reactions to a post before. That's gotta be a record. I clicked on 'clap' just to make it eleven. 

I also think I’ve never seen a post get that many weenies.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

How accurate is BAM weather 

He called the mixing potential when the concern was still about suppression.

[mitchnick]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

How accurate is BAM weather 

Accurate enough for us not to want them to have posted it.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, wxlvr said:

Ha!  I just responded...am I the 12th?

You are a legend!  Hats off to you sir or ma’am